Weekly Trend Report
- 21st March, 2026
Week Gone By
The key equity indices witnessed marginal losses during the week amid weak global cues, persistent selling pressure and volatility in crude oil prices. Investor sentiment remained cautious due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the global growth outlook. The ongoing conflict in the region also overshadowed key domestic macroeconomic data, including trade deficit and wholesale inflation figures. Market participants also tracked policy signals from major central banks such as those of U.S, Switzerland, the UK, Japan and the Eurozone. The Nifty ended the week below the 23,150 mark.On the economic front, India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $27.1 billion in February from $34.68 billion in January.
Week Ahead
Dalal Street heads into the new week walking a tightrope, with investor sentiment remaining fragile amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Traders are increasingly cautious, reluctant to carry positions as uncertainty continues to cloud near-term visibility. The undertone is clear: this is not yet a full-fledged recovery, but a market caught between hope and hesitation. At the macro level, multiple headwinds persist. Continued foreign institutional investor (FII) selling remains a key drag on liquidity, while crude oil prices, though off recent highs, are still elevated enough to keep inflation concerns alive. Globally, developments in the Iran-US-Israel conflict and the movement of crude oil prices will remain the dominant drivers of market sentiment. On 24 March 2026, India will release HSBC flash PMI data for March, including Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI, offering an early snapshot of business activity. On 23 March 2026, the United States will release the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February, offering a broad gauge of economic activity and growth momentum.
Technical Overview
- The Nifty 50 index has extended its corrective structure, continuing to trade under strong selling pressure after failing to sustain above the 24,200–24,000 supply zone. Price action clearly reflects a transition from consolidation to the active distribution phase.
- On the weekly timeframe, the index has formed a decisive bearish continuation, breaking below multiple support levels and now closing near the 23,100–23,150 zone. The absence of strong lower wicks indicates lack of meaningful buying interest at lower levels.
- The most important structural shift is the clean breakdown below 24,000 and 23,850 levels, which earlier acted as strong demand zones. This confirms that buyers have lost control, and supply dominance has increased significantly.
- Price is now trading well below the 20-week and 50-week averages, and the gap between price and moving averages is widening, indicating strong downside momentum with no immediate mean reversion yet.
- On the daily timeframe, the index shows a sharp impulsive down move followed by a weak pullback, forming a typical bearish continuation structure rather than a reversal.
- The recent bounce from 22,700–22,800 demand zone lacks follow-through, suggesting that it is more of a relief rally rather than fresh accumulation. Sellers are still active on every rise.
- Structurally, the market is now printing lower highs and lower lows, confirming a well-established short-term downtrend across lower timeframes.
- Immediate support is placed at 22,700–22,800, and a breakdown below this zone can trigger further downside toward the 22,300–22,000 zone, which is the next major demand area.
- On the upside, 23,800–24,000 now becomes a strong resistance zone, followed by 24,500–24,600, where heavy supply and moving averages are aligned.
- Volume behaviour supports the bearish bias, as recent declines are accompanied by rising volumes, indicating institutional selling and long unwinding.
- Conclusion:Overall, Nifty is in a clear bearish trend after multiple structural breakdowns, with price trading below key moving averages and important support zones. The market has shifted from a range-bound environment to a directional bearish phase. As long as the price remains below the 23,800–24,000 resistance level, the bias remains negative. Any bounce is likely to face selling pressure and act as a pullback within a downtrend. A decisive breakdown below 22,700 could accelerate the fall toward the 22,200 zone, while only a strong reclaim above 24,000–24,500 would signal any meaningful recovery.
To view the detailed report click here to Download
