Weekly Trend Report
- 03rd April, 2026
Week Gone By
Domestic equity benchmarks ended the week slightly lower, remaining range-bound amid volatility driven by US-Iran tensions and elevated crude oil prices. While markets rebounded mid-week on easing geopolitical concerns and softer oil, supported by IT and metal stocks persistent FII outflows, rupee weakness, and inflation worries kept sentiment cautious. For the week, the S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.36% to 73,319.55 and the Nifty 50 declined 0.47% to 22,713.10, with midcaps lagging and smallcaps showing resilience. Macro cues were mixed, as stronger IIP growth (5.2%) contrasted with softer PMI (53.9), indicating slowing momentum. Auto sales remained robust, though stock reactions were mixed, while global signals stayed cautious amid mixed economic data across major regions.
Week Ahead
Investor sentiment is likely to remain cautious amid persistent macro uncertainty driven by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and elevated crude oil prices, which pose risks to fiscal stability across emerging markets, including India, despite the country maintaining fiscal discipline with FY26 deficit at ~95% of the revised target by February. Global cues remain mixed, with the US showing signs of easing inflation (core PCE at 2.6%), supporting expectations of policy easing, while China continues to exhibit steady momentum with PMI above 50 and strong trade performance, though growth remains moderate. In India, near-term focus will be on key data releases including Services and Composite PMI, along with the upcoming monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of India, which has maintained a cautious stance after recent rate cuts. Globally, investors will track US macro indicators such as ISM Services PMI, inflation data, GDP growth, FOMC minutes, and consumer sentiment, alongside China’s trade, GDP, industrial production, and retail sales data. With oil price volatility and slowing global growth signals in play, markets are expected to remain sensitive to inflation trends, central bank commentary, and cross-asset movements for directional cues.
Technical Overview
- The Nifty 50 index continues to remain under strong corrective pressure, but recent price action indicates an attempt to stabilise near the lower demand zone of 22,100–22,300 after an extended decline.
- On the weekly timeframe, the index has formed a small-bodied candle after a sharp fall, suggesting early signs of selling exhaustion, but no confirmed reversal yet. Price is still trading well below the 20- and 50-week moving averages, maintaining a bearish bias.
- The breakdown below 23,500 and 23,200 has now firmly converted these levels into strong overhead resistance zones, and any pullback towards these areas is likely to face supply pressure.
- On the daily chart, the market is showing a temporary pause after a vertical fall, with price attempting to hold above the 22,400–22,700 band. However, the structure still reflects a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows intact.
- The recent candles indicate short covering / relief bounce, rather than fresh buying, as there is no strong bullish follow-through or expansion in range on the upside.
- The zone of 22,100–22,300 is acting as immediate demand, and this aligns with a prior swing base, making it a critical short-term support.
- If this support holds, a pullback toward 23,200–23,500 can be expected, but this move will likely remain corrective in nature unless strong volume supports the upside breakout.
- A decisive breakdown below 22,100 will open further downside toward 21,700–21,500 zone, which is the next major weekly demand area.
- MACD continues to stay negative, though histogram contraction suggests slowing downside momentum
- Conclusion:Nifty is currently in a bearish trend with early signs of stabilisation near key support, but there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. The market appears to be transitioning from a sharp decline into a possible consolidation or pullback phase. As long as the price sustains below the 23,200–23,500 resistance, the overall bias remains negative. Any upside move is likely to be sold into unless supported by strong momentum and volume. A breakdown below 22,100 can extend the correction toward 21,700–21,500, while holding above this zone may lead to a short-term relief rally within a broader downtrend..
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