Weekly Trend Report
- 1st May, 2026
Week Gone By
Markets ended the week on a muted and volatile note, with early optimism driven by easing geopolitical tensions and steady Q4 earnings gradually fading due to rising crude oil prices, weak global cues, and persistent FII outflows. The S&P BSE Sensex gained 0.32% to close at 76,913, while the Nifty 50 rose 0.41% to settle at 23,998, reflecting a largely range-bound and choppy market. Broader markets showed resilience, with midcaps posting modest gains and smallcaps outperforming. Sentiment remained cautious amid rupee weakness, exit poll uncertainty, and continued foreign selling pressure. On the macro front, India’s industrial production growth slowed to 4.1% in March, indicating some moderation in economic activity. Among stocks, gains in Reliance Industries, IndusInd Bank, and Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services were offset by declines in Axis Bank, Shriram Finance, and Hindustan Unilever. Globally, strong data from China and a status quo stance by the Federal Reserve were overshadowed by rising oil prices and geopolitical concerns. Overall, despite intermittent recovery attempts, external headwinds kept markets indecisive through the week.
Week Ahead
The week ahead is likely to remain volatile, driven by rising crude oil prices and a packed earnings calendar. Brent crude touching $126 amid stalled US-Iran talks, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and the UAE’s exit from OPEC poses inflationary and currency risks, potentially pressuring the rupee and input costs. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, but slowing global growth adds to caution. Domestically, focus will be on Q4 FY26 results from key companies like Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Auto, and Dabur India, with management commentary on margins and FY27 outlook being critical. Alongside, PMI data, US payrolls, and global cues will guide sentiment, keeping markets largely event-driven.
Technical Overview
- Recent price action shows a sharp V-shaped recovery followed by sideways-to-negative consolidation, indicating profit booking and supply absorption near resistance.
- On the weekly timeframe, price is struggling to sustain above the 24,200–24,300 zone, which is acting as an intermediate supply/resistance after breakdown, indicating that the recovery is losing momentum near the overhead supply.
- The index is still trading below the 20-week and 50-week moving averages, keeping the broader structure corrective despite the recent bounce
- The weekly structure continues to reflect a lower high formation, suggesting that the market remains in a sell-on-rise environment unless key resistances are reclaimed.
- The zone around 24,000–24,200 is acting as a decision area, where both buyers and sellers are active, leading to range-bound behavior.
- Failure to build acceptance above this zone suggests lack of follow-through buying, increasing the probability of another leg of weakness.
- Immediate support is placed at 23,800–23,500, followed by a stronger demand cluster at 23,200–22,800.
- On the upside, only a sustained breakout above 24,500–25,000 can trigger a trend reversal and short covering rally toward higher zones.
- RSI (Weekly) is hovering near the mid-range after bouncing from oversold levels, indicating neutral momentum with no strong directional bias.
- MACD (Weekly) remains in negative territory but is flattening out, suggesting bearish momentum is slowing but not reversed yet.
- Volume during the recovery phase was elevated, but the recent candles show slightly reduced participation, hinting at exhaustion in the pullback rally.
- Conclusion:The Nifty 50 is currently in a transition phase, with the sharp recovery from lower levels now facing strong resistance near 24,000–24,300. The broader weekly structure still leans corrective, with price unable to reclaim key moving averages. As long as the index trades below 24,500–25,000, the market is likely to remain in a range-to-bearish setup, with intermittent pullbacks facing selling pressure. A decisive move above resistance is required for a trend reversal, while a failure to hold 23,800 may drag the index back toward the 23,200–22,800 demand zones, keeping the bias cautious in the near term.
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