Weekly Trend Report
- 04th July, 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equity markets ended the week higher, with the Sensex gaining 0.86% and the Nifty 0.90%, supported by strong domestic macroeconomic indicators, healthy GST collections, improving industrial output, and continued expansion in manufacturing and services despite a moderation in PMI. Investor sentiment was further aided by expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, while global cues remained mixed with easing Eurozone inflation, improving economic activity in China and Japan, and steady UK growth. Stock-specific developments drove action across sectors, with strong gains in companies such as Hexaware, Baazar Style Retail and Bajaj Healthcare, while Persistent Systems, Bank of Baroda, Waaree Energies and Eicher Motors faced pressure due to company-specific concerns. Overall, resilient domestic fundamentals and improving global liquidity expectations kept market sentiment positive during the week.
Week Ahead
The macro environment remained broadly supportive during the week, with Brent crude stabilising near $70/bbl as Hormuz shipping flows normalised despite lingering US-Iran geopolitical tensions. Domestically, strong GST collections (+13.9% YoY) and IIP growth of 5.1% reflected resilient economic activity, while globally, weaker-than-expected U.S. June payrolls strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, supporting emerging market sentiment. Investors will closely monitor developments in US-Iran talks, India’s bank credit, deposit growth and forex reserves, China’s inflation and PPI data, and key U.S. releases including ISM Services PMI, trade balance, FOMC minutes and existing home sales, which are expected to influence global market direction in the coming week.
Technical Overview
- Nifty 50 closed the week at 24,270.85, gaining 214.85 points +0.89% on the weekly timeframe. The index extended its recovery for the third consecutive week and successfully reclaimed the 24,250–24,270 resistance cluster, reflecting improving market breadth and sustained buying interest.
- On the weekly chart, the index has formed a strong bullish continuation candle, closing near the week’s high. This price action confirms that buyers continue to absorb supply after the March-April correction and that the medium-term recovery structure remains intact.
- Although the index remains below the falling 50-week EMA, it has now entered the major institutional supply zone between 24,300 and 24,500, making the coming week crucial for determining whether the recovery evolves into a full trend reversal.
- The most significant development this week was the decisive breakout above the 24,060–24,100 resistance, which had capped prices for almost three weeks. The breakout was accompanied by a wide bullish candle and sustained follow-through buying, indicating that fresh longs rather than short covering are driving the move.
- After the breakout, Nifty witnessed a healthy intraday retest of the 24,040–24,060 zone before buyers immediately regained control. This confirms a classic polarity shift, where previous resistance has now turned into immediate demand, strengthening the short-term bullish structure.
- Weekly MACD has generated a bullish crossover with the histogram expanding into positive territory, confirming strengthening medium-term momentum.
- Weekly RSI has improved further and is steadily approaching the bullish zone, supporting continuation of the recovery.
- Conclusion:The latest weekly price action marks a meaningful improvement in Nifty’s technical structure. The successful breakout above 24,100, followed by a confirmed retest and the formation of fresh higher highs and higher lows, indicates that buyers are gradually regaining market control. However, the index has now entered a historically important supply region between 24,380 and 24,580. This zone is likely to see increased profit-booking and institutional selling pressure. A sustained close above 24,580 would validate a medium-term trend reversal and could open the path towards the 50-week EMA near 24,800, followed by the psychological 25,000 level. Until then, the short-term bias remains constructive, with any decline toward 24,040–24,160 likely to attract buying interest.
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