Weekly Trend Report
- 25th July, 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equity markets witnessed a weak and volatile week, with benchmark indices ending lower in all five trading sessions as selling pressure persisted throughout the week. Market sentiment remained subdued due to continued FII outflows, rising crude oil prices, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over inflation. Banking stocks, particularly private sector lenders, came under pressure following mixed Q1FY27 earnings, while weakness in broader markets reflected growing risk aversion amid global uncertainties and currency depreciation. Despite intermittent value buying, benchmark indices failed to recover as elevated oil prices and the prevailing risk-off sentiment continued to weigh on investor confidence.
Week Ahead
Markets are likely to remain driven by the ongoing Q1FY27 earnings season in the week ahead, with investor focus on results from Coal India, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Adani Enterprises, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Asian Paints, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, ITC, Adani Ports & SEZ, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv. On the domestic macro front, investors will monitor India’s Industrial Production (IIP) data for June to gauge the momentum in economic activity. Globally, attention will remain on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on 29th July, Q2 GDP growth, Core PCE inflation, Consumer Confidence and July Manufacturing PMI for cues on the interest rate outlook and the health of the US economy. Meanwhile, developments in the Middle East, crude oil price movements and global trade-related developments will remain key monitorables. Overall, markets are expected to remain earnings-driven, with stock-specific action dominating amid a busy macroeconomic calendar and an uncertain global backdrop.
Technical Overview
- Nifty 50 ended the week at 23,767.45, declining 566.85 points (-2.33%) on the weekly timeframe. After posting a steady recovery over the past few weeks, the index witnessed sharp profit booking and formed a strong bearish reversal candle, indicating that sellers have regained control near higher levels.
- The major change in this week’s price action was the rejection from the 24,250–24,350 institutional supply zone. Despite attempting to extend the previous week’s breakout, Nifty failed to sustain above this resistance cluster and witnessed aggressive selling throughout the week, resulting in a bearish engulfing-type structure on the weekly chart.
- On the daily timeframe, the index slipped back below the short-term moving average cloud and broke the immediate support zone around 23,820–23,850. This breakdown confirms that the recent upside breakout has failed and that the previous bullish momentum has weakened considerably.
- During the week, every recovery attempt faced selling pressure near 24,000–24,250, resulting in lower highs on the daily chart. At the same time, price has now started making lower lows, signalling a shift from the earlier recovery structure to a short-term bearish trend.
- The 23,700–23,750 zone is now acting as immediate support. Although buyers managed to defend this level towards the end of the week, the rebound lacked strength, suggesting demand remains weak. A decisive close below this support could accelerate selling towards 23,500, followed by the key demand zone around 23,150.
- Weekly MACD remains in positive territory, but the histogram has started contracting, indicating that bullish momentum is fading. If the weakness continues, a bearish crossover could develop over the coming weeks.
- Weekly RSI has also turned lower after failing to enter the bullish zone, reflecting weakening momentum and increasing selling pressure. This suggests that the recent recovery has lost strength and the market may require further consolidation before attempting another upside move.
- Conclusion:The latest weekly price action marks a clear deterioration in Nifty’s short-term technical structure. The rejection from the 24,250–24,350 institutional supply zone, followed by the failed breakout and breakdown below 23,820 support, indicates that sellers have regained the upper hand. Going forward, 23,700–23,750 remains the first support to watch. A sustained break below this level could trigger fresh downside towards 23,500 and 23,150. On the upside, Nifty must reclaim 24,000–24,050 initially, while only a decisive close above 24,250–24,350 would negate the current bearish bias and revive the medium-term recovery. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure, and the overall short-term outlook remains cautious to bearish.
To view the detailed report click here to Download
