Weekly Trend Report
- 08th Aug, 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equity markets ended the week lower, with the Nifty 50 declining 0.8% to 24,571 and the Sensex falling 0.2% to 78,499, as heightened volatility following the rollout of the new Closing Auction Session (CAS) kept investors cautious. The RBI’s decision to hold the repo rate at 5.25% and retain a neutral stance provided limited support, despite an upward revision in FY27 GDP growth to 6.7% and a lower inflation forecast of 5.0%. The ongoing Q1FY27 earnings season remained a key positive, with strong results from SBI and other companies supporting selective buying, while broader markets outperformed with Midcap and Smallcap indices rising 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively. Overall, markets remained volatile, with improving earnings and macro fundamentals offset by concerns around trading volatility, geopolitical risks and global energy prices.
Week Ahead
Markets are likely to remain focused on the evolving situation around the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on crude oil prices, with Brent moving toward $82 per barrel providing some relief but the conditions around reopening keeping the outlook uncertain. On the domestic front, July CPI inflation on August 12 will be a key monitorable following the sharp rise in June, while WPI inflation on August 14 will provide further insight into wholesale price pressures and the inflation outlook. The ongoing Q1FY27 earnings season will remain an important stock-specific trigger, with results from HAL, Bharat Forge, Grasim, Tata Motors, Apollo Hospitals, Ashok Leyland and other major companies due through the week. Globally, US CPI, PPI and Retail Sales data will be closely tracked for signals on inflation, consumer demand and the US rate outlook. Overall, crude prices, inflation data and earnings are likely to remain the key drivers, with geopolitical developments around Hormuz continuing to dictate broader market sentiment.
Technical Overview
- Nifty continued its recovery during the current week and closed at 24,570.65, up around 0.77% on the weekly timeframe. More importantly, the index extended the sequence of higher lows, indicating that buyers continue to accumulate on declines and the recovery structure remains intact.
- Recent price action shows a clear change in character. After repeatedly struggling around the 24,300–24,450 region in previous weeks, Nifty pushed through this resistance and moved towards 24,750–24,775. This indicates improving demand, although supply has again emerged near the higher levels.
- The current week’s candle is particularly important. Nifty initially extended the rally towards 24,774, but faced profit booking from the upper end and slipped back towards 24,570. The upper wick indicates that sellers are still active around 24,700–24,800, making this the immediate supply zone.
- Despite the rejection, price has not witnessed any meaningful breakdown on the lower timeframe. The index is consolidating around the previous breakout area near 24,450–24,500, suggesting that the current decline is more of a retest/profit-booking phase rather than a confirmed reversal.
- Another positive development is that the 24,000–24,100 region has gradually shifted from resistance into an important demand base. As long as this zone remains protected, the broader recovery structure from the April lows remains technically valid.
- However, Nifty is now trading between two important technical barriers. On the upside, the 24,750–24,800 area coincides with the weekly moving-average resistance, while 24,989–25,000 remains the major positional hurdle. Therefore, a sustained breakout above 24,800 is required before calling this a stronger medium-term trend reversal.
- Weekly MACD continues to strengthen, with the bullish crossover intact and the positive histogram expanding. This indicates that medium-term downside momentum is fading and recovery momentum is gradually building.
- Conclusion: The latest price action reflects a constructive recovery with improving market structure, supported by successive higher lows and a breakout above the previous 24,300–24,450 supply area. However, rejection from 24,750–24,775 shows that overhead supply has not completely disappeared. A decisive weekly close above 24,750–24,800 would strengthen the bullish structure and could open the path towards 25,000–25,150, followed by higher levels. On the downside, 24,450–24,475 is the first important breakout-retest zone; holding above it would keep the immediate structure positive. Below this, 24,100–24,000 becomes the key demand area, while 23,817 remains the major structural support.
To view the detailed report click here to Download
