Weekly Trend Report
- 15th Aug, 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equities ended the week lower, as elevated crude oil prices, renewed US-Iran tensions and mixed global cues weighed on sentiment, while investors continued to assess Q1FY27 earnings. The Nifty declined 0.8%, with selling pressure emerging through the first half of the week before stabilising towards the end, while broader markets remained relatively resilient. Domestic inflation remained manageable but edged higher, with CPI rising to 4.45% in July, while WPI moderated marginally to 9.78%, keeping inflation and the impact of higher energy prices in focus. Globally, markets remained cautious amid geopolitical risks, although softer US inflation and weaker payroll data reduced expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike, supporting risk appetite towards the latter part of the week.
Week Ahead
Indian equities head into the week amid a challenging global backdrop, with elevated crude prices and renewed uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz keeping investor sentiment cautious. Brent crude at $87.2 per barrel, up over 32% YoY, continues to raise concerns around India’s import bill, current account and currency, while potentially limiting the RBI’s room for further easing. Domestically, investors will track unemployment, infrastructure output and August flash PMI readings for cues on growth momentum. Globally, focus will remain on US housing data and, most importantly, the FOMC minutes for signals on the Fed’s rate trajectory, while China’s industrial production, retail sales and LPR decisions will provide further cues on regional growth and policy support. Overall, elevated energy prices and global monetary policy uncertainty are likely to keep volatility high.
Technical Overview
- Nifty 50 closed the current week at 24,366, down 204.65 points -0.83%, after opening near 24,581. The index faced selling pressure from the higher levels and formed a bearish weekly candle, indicating profit booking after the recent recovery.
- The most important price-action development is the rejection from the 24,700–24,750 zone. Nifty rallied strongly toward this area in the previous week but failed to sustain above it. The formation of rejection candles near this resistance indicates that supply is still active at higher levels.
- On the daily chart, the index has now formed a short-term lower-high structure after failing to sustain above the recent swing high near 24,750. The last few sessions show gradual profit booking rather than a sharp breakdown, suggesting that buyers are still defending lower levels.
- The 24,400–24,450 zone, which acted as an important resistance earlier, is currently being tested again. Nifty has slipped back below this zone, so the coming sessions will be important in determining whether this is simply a breakout retest or the start of a deeper correction.
- The recent decline has brought Nifty closer to the 24,080–24,100 support zone, which coincides with the rising short-term moving-average structure. A successful hold above this area would keep the broader recovery intact and could encourage fresh buying on dips.
- 24,000–23,900 is the next important demand pocket. Price action around this region has repeatedly attracted buyers, while the rising trendline from the April low is also approaching this zone. Therefore, this area becomes crucial for maintaining the current higher-low structure.
- On the upside, 24,450 is the first hurdle, followed by 24,700–24,750. Only a sustained breakout above 24,750 would negate the current supply pressure and reopen the path towards 24,985–25,150, where the next major resistance is placed.
- Conclusion:
The latest price action indicates that Nifty is undergoing a healthy profit-booking phase after facing strong supply around 24,700–24,750. The index has lost momentum this week, but the broader recovery structure remains intact as long as 24,000–23,900 holds. For the near term, 24,450–24,500 is the immediate resistance zone, while 24,700–24,750 remains the key breakout level. A sustained move above 24,750 can resume the uptrend towards 24,985–25,150. On the downside, holding 24,080–24,000 would keep the current higher-low structure intact. Below 23,817, however, the short-term bullish structure would weaken significantly, and the index could see a deeper retracement towards 23,650.
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