Weekly Trend Report
- 05th Sept, 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equity markets ended lower during the week, with the Nifty declining 1.15% and the Sensex falling 0.97%. Strong Q1 FY27 GDP growth of 7.8% highlighted domestic resilience, but a slowdown in August manufacturing activity, with PMI easing to 52.8, kept sentiment cautious. Services activity remained in expansion, while forex inflows under the special USD-INR swap facility stood at $136.38 billion as of August 31. Meanwhile, SEBI’s potential review of the derivatives settlement price methodology added to market uncertainty. Global cues remained mixed, with higher Eurozone producer prices, slower US manufacturing growth and signs of moderation in US hiring, while China’s manufacturing activity remained in contraction. Overall, markets remained under pressure as resilient domestic growth was offset by softer activity indicators and mixed global cues.
Week Ahead
Markets are likely to remain volatile in the week ahead, with US-Iran developments and crude oil movements remaining the key drivers of global risk sentiment. The sharp deterioration around the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting rise in Brent crude could keep pressure on emerging-market assets, particularly if energy prices remain elevated. Meanwhile, a more hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve has increased focus on the September 16 policy decision, with markets reassessing the risk of a rate hike. Domestically, strong Q1 FY27 GDP growth and 14.8% YoY growth in August GST collections provide a supportive backdrop, although the five-year-low manufacturing PMI remains a near-term concern. The week is relatively data-light, with India’s forex reserves and key US inflation data being the main domestic and global releases. Overall, market direction is likely to remain driven by crude prices, geopolitical developments and changing expectations around US monetary policy, while strong domestic fundamentals could provide some cushion.
Technical Overview
- Nifty 50 closed the week at 23,897.70, down 277.95 points -1.15%, after trading in a range of 23,786–24,143. The index remained under pressure through the week and closed near the lower end of the range, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.
- The recent price action has turned cautious, as Nifty failed to sustain above the 24,200–24,300 resistance zone and gradually slipped below the 24,000 mark. The formation of lower highs over the last few sessions indicates weakening short-term momentum.
- A key development this week was the breakdown below the rising trendline that had been supporting the index since the April low. The index is now trading below this trendline, weakening the recent higher-low structure and suggesting the corrective phase could extend further if support fails to hold.
- The 23,800–23,850 zone is now the immediate support area. Nifty tested this region during the week and managed to close just above it. A sustained hold here can trigger a technical bounce, while a decisive breakdown would confirm further weakness.
- The next important support is placed around 23,666, followed by the 23,150–23,200 zone. A move towards these levels becomes more likely if the index fails to reclaim 23,900–24,000 and selling pressure continues.
- On the upside, 24,025–24,150 has become the immediate resistance zone. Any recovery towards this region is likely to face supply, as previous support levels are now turning into resistance.
- Above 24,150, the next hurdle remains around 24,200–24,300, followed by the broader 24,450–24,575 supply zone. Nifty needs to decisively reclaim these levels to restore the earlier bullish momentum.
- The weekly candle is bearish and has closed close to the week’s low, reflecting increasing dominance of sellers. The absence of a strong lower wick also suggests that buyers were unable to generate a meaningful recovery towards the end of the week.
- Conclusion:The latest price action indicates a clear deterioration in Nifty’s short-term structure. The rejection from the 24,200–24,300 region, followed by a break below the rising trendline and the 24,000 level, shows that sellers have gained control in the near term. For the coming sessions, 23,800–23,850 is the crucial support zone. Holding this area can lead to a relief bounce towards 24,025–24,150, while a sustained move above 24,150 can improve the setup. On the downside, a decisive break below 23,805 and subsequently 23,666 would strengthen the bearish setup and can drag Nifty towards 23,150–23,200.
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