Weekly Trend Report
- 07th March 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equities ended the week sharply lower as escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia and a spike in crude oil prices triggered a risk off sentiment across markets. Benchmarks declined in three of the four trading sessions, with the Nifty slipping below 24,500 and broader markets also witnessing notable declines, amid persistent FII outflows and a weakening rupee. The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran intensified following strikes on Iranian infrastructure and attacks on Saudi energy facilities, pushing Brent crude higher and raising concerns around global supply chains. While domestic activity indicators remained resilient, with manufacturing PMI rising to a four month high and the composite PMI strengthening, global macro signals remained mixed as China’s factory activity slipped into contraction and higher US producer inflation reinforced concerns around sticky price pressures.
Week Ahead
Indian equities head into the coming week under pressure after a sharp late week sell off, with elevated volatility driven by the spike in crude oil prices following disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating US Iran tensions. Brent crude moving above $87 per barrel and the surge in India VIX signal heightened risk aversion, although strong external buffers such as forex reserves above $728 billion may provide some stability. Domestically, investors will monitor money supply data, February inflation and weekly forex reserves for cues on liquidity and price trends. Globally, attention will remain on key macro indicators including US inflation, GDP estimates, labour market data and housing activity, alongside crude inventory trends, while China’s inflation, trade balance and forex reserves data will offer signals on global demand conditions.
Technical Overview
On the weekly timeframe, the index has printed another strong bearish candle with a relatively large real body, indicating that sellers maintained firm control throughout the week. The failure to hold above the previously established support near 25,000–25,050 confirms a structural breakdown of the earlier consolidation range.
The most critical development in the recent sell-off is the decisive breakdown below the long-term 200-day moving average, which had historically acted as a key dynamic support during prior pullbacks. The violation of this level signals a shift in medium-term market structure from bullish consolidation to corrective weakness.
Price action has also invalidated the earlier rectangular consolidation structure, where the index had been trading between roughly 25,700 and 25,050. The breakdown below the lower boundary of this range triggered accelerated selling pressure and momentum-driven liquidation.
On lower timeframes, the market structure has transitioned into a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the establishment of a short-term downtrend. Any minor rebound attempts have been sold into, indicating overhead supply and weak buyer participation.
The immediate support zone now lies around 24,200–24,350, which coincides with a previously tested demand area. A sustained breach below this level could expose the index to a deeper corrective extension toward the broader structural support near 23,800–24,000.
From a resistance perspective, the 25,000–25,100 region now acts as the first supply zone, followed by stronger resistance near 25,250–25,350, where the breakdown initially accelerated. Any recovery toward these zones is likely to encounter selling pressure from trapped long positions.
The structural breakdown has also been supported by expanding downside volume, particularly during the sharp declines seen in the recent sessions. Elevated participation during the fall suggests institutional distribution and liquidation of weak hands.
Momentum indicators further confirm the weakening structure. The daily RSI has slipped sharply into bearish territory, reflecting persistent downside momentum and absence of strong buying interest.
Conclusion:Overall, the Nifty 50 has undergone a decisive structural breakdown after failing to sustain above the 26,200 supply zone, resulting in a sharp corrective move toward the 24,300 demand region. The breach of the 200-day moving average and the prior consolidation support indicate that the market has shifted into a more fragile, distribution-driven phase. While the 24,200–24,350 zone may offer temporary stabilization, a decisive breakdown below this area could accelerate the correction toward 23,800–24,000. On the upside, any technical rebound is likely to run into strong supply near 25,000–25,250, keeping the broader bias tilted toward a cautious-to-bearish bias in the near term.
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