Weekly Trend Report
- 18th April, 2026
Week Gone By
Global and domestic markets remained volatile during the week, driven largely by movements in crude oil prices and evolving geopolitical developments. Indian equities declined sharply early in the week as crude surged above $100 per barrel, triggering risk-off sentiment and pressure on crude-sensitive sectors such as aviation and paints, while select EV-linked names showed relative resilience. Sentiment improved in the latter half as crude prices moderated on optimism around negotiations, leading to a broad-based recovery supported by metals, IT and financials, along with improved participation from midcaps and smallcaps and selective FII inflows. Overall, the week was marked by an initial correction followed by a recovery, with crude prices and geopolitical cues remaining the key drivers.
Week Ahead
Markets are likely to remain highly event-driven in the week ahead, with developments around the US-Iran situation and the ceasefire timeline emerging as the single most important trigger for global risk sentiment. The outcome here remains binary, with any extension or progress in negotiations likely to ease crude prices and support risk assets, while a breakdown could trigger a sharp reversal led by renewed oil spikes. Brent crude trajectory will therefore be closely tracked, given its direct implications for inflation expectations, currency stability and capital flows into emerging markets like India. Alongside this, key global data points such as US retail sales and flash PMIs will provide cues on growth momentum amid a softening macro backdrop. On the domestic front, focus will shift to the Q4FY26 earnings season, with BFSI and IT results expected to drive index direction, particularly through management commentary on margins, credit growth and demand outlook. FII flows will remain a critical monitorables after recent volatility, with any sustained reversal potentially amplifying market moves. With no major domestic macro triggers, markets are likely to remain largely influenced by global cues, while earnings outcomes drive stock-specific action. Overall, the near-term outlook remains contingent on crude price trends and geopolitical clarity, with markets likely to stay volatile but biased toward direction based on external developments.
Technical Overview
The Nifty 50 index has witnessed a strong pullback rally from the 22,400–22,600 demand zone, forming a meaningful bullish weekly candle, indicating that the recent capitulation phase has transitioned into a relief recovery phase.
On the weekly chart, price has reclaimed the 24,000–24,300 zone, which earlier acted as a breakdown area. This zone is now attempting to flip from resistance to support, making it a crucial structural pivot.
The recent weekly candle shows a strong real body with limited lower shadow, highlighting aggressive buying interest and short covering near lower levels.
However, despite the recovery, the index is still trading below the 20-week and 50-week moving averages cluster indicating that the broader trend remains under pressure and rallies are still corrective in nature.
The immediate resistance is placed near 24,800–25,000, followed by a stronger supply zone at 25,500–26,000, where prior distribution was seen.
On the downside, immediate support is now seen at 23,800–23,600, while the major demand base remains intact at 22,800–22,200.
The recovery leg shows a sharp V-shaped bounce, typically driven by short covering rather than fresh positional buying, as seen by the speed of the move. The index has retraced into the prior breakdown zone, where supply is expected to emerge. This makes the current zone a make-or-break level for confirming the trend
Recent structure indicates a range formation between 22,200 and 25,000, suggesting that the market may enter a time-wise consolidation phase after the sharp decline and recovery. The inability to sustain above 24,500–25,000 may lead to renewed selling pressure, while acceptance above this zone can trigger a short covering extension toward higher supply zones.
RSI (Weekly) has bounced from oversold territory and is now moving toward the mid-zone, indicating loss of bearish momentum but not yet bullish strength.
Conclusion: The Nifty 50 is currently in a recovery phase following a sharp corrective move, with prices reclaiming key short-term levels. However, the broader weekly structure still reflects a corrective trend within a larger range. As long as the index sustains above 24,000–23,800, the pullback can extend toward 24,800–25,000. A decisive breakout above this zone is required to confirm trend reversal. Failure to sustain above reclaimed levels may result in the market slipping back toward 23,200–22,800 zones, keeping the structure range-bound with a bearish bias at higher levels.
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