Weekly Trend Report
- 22nd August 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equities ended the week lower, as elevated crude oil prices, renewed US-Iran tensions and persistent FII selling weighed on sentiment, while higher US bond yields and a weaker rupee further dampened risk appetite. The Nifty declined 0.47%, with selling pressure persisting through the first half of the week before stabilising towards the end, while broader markets remained relatively resilient. Domestic economic activity remained steady, although core sector growth moderated to 5.4% in July from 6% in June, keeping the focus on the pace of industrial activity and the impact of elevated energy prices. Globally, markets remained cautious amid geopolitical risks and signs of slowing economic momentum in China, while softer US inflation and weaker consumer spending eased near-term concerns over monetary tightening, although the Fed’s rate path remains data-dependent.
Week Ahead
Indian equities head into the week amid a challenging global backdrop, with elevated crude oil prices and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz keeping investor sentiment cautious. Persistent energy-market disruptions are likely to keep pressure on India’s import bill, external balances and the rupee, while limiting the near-term scope for monetary easing. Domestically, investors will track economic activity and capital-flow indicators for cues on growth momentum and external stability. Globally, focus will remain on the US July PCE inflation data and the second estimate of Q2 GDP, while Nvidia’s earnings will be closely watched for signals on global technology demand. The key event, however, will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, with investors looking for clarity on the US interest-rate outlook amid elevated inflation and bond yields. Overall, elevated crude prices, geopolitical uncertainty and the evolving Fed policy outlook are likely to keep volatility elevated through the week.
Technical Overview
- Nifty 50 closed the week at 24,252, down 114 points -0.47%, after opening around 24,343. The index remained volatile during the week and ultimately closed with a small bearish weekly candle, reflecting continued supply at higher levels.
- The most important recent development is the rejection from the 24,650–24,750 supply zone. Nifty rallied sharply into this area in previous weeks but failed to sustain above it and has since started forming lower highs on the daily chart, indicating that buying momentum has weakened near the upper end of the range.
- On the daily chart, the index initially attempted to hold above 24,400–24,450, but repeated rejection from this zone resulted in a gradual decline towards the 24,100–24,000 area. The latest candles show that sellers are gaining control in the short term, although there has not been any aggressive breakdown yet.
- Price is now approaching the rising trendline support, which has been connecting the higher lows formed since the April bottom. This trendline is important because buyers have repeatedly used this structure to defend dips. The current week’s low near 24,025 shows that the index is already testing this short-term demand area.
- The 24,100–24,180 zone is the immediate support area. The daily moving-average structure is also positioned around this region, making it an important decision point. A sustained hold here could lead to another attempt toward 24,400–24,450.
- However, 24,250–24,450 has now become a supply-heavy zone. Unless Nifty decisively reclaims 24,450 with strong price action, upside moves are likely to face profit booking. Above 24,450, the next major hurdle remains 24,650–24,750, followed by 25,150.
- From a broader perspective, the index is still holding above the major April recovery base and the rising long-term moving average. Therefore, the current weakness should not yet be treated as a major trend reversal. It is better viewed as a short-term corrective phase within the broader recovery structure unless key supports are broken.
- Conclusion:The latest price action indicates that Nifty is undergoing a short-term corrective phase after facing strong rejection from 24,650–24,750. The formation of lower highs and the recent weekly bearish candle show weakening momentum, but the broader structure remains constructive as long as the rising trendline and 24,000–24,100 support hold. For the coming sessions, 24,400–24,450 is the immediate resistance, while a sustained breakout above 24,650–24,750 would restore bullish momentum and open the path towards 24,985–25,150. On the downside, 24,000–24,100 is the immediate make-or-break zone. A decisive break below this area could accelerate the correction toward 23,817, while a break below 23,817 would weaken the broader short-term structure and shift focus toward 23,650.
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