Weekly Report: 23rd Dec 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equities ended the week marginally lower as continued selling in heavyweight stocks offset steady buying in mid and small caps, keeping sentiment cautious amid mixed global cues. Domestic macros offered some support, with wholesale inflation remaining in deflationary territory and the trade deficit narrowing to a five month low in November on the back of stronger exports and lower imports, even as high frequency indicators such as the HSBC Flash PMIs moderated, pointing to some loss of growth momentum. Globally, market sentiment remained guarded as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level in three decades, while in the US, resilient job additions alongside a rise in the unemployment rate reinforced uncertainty around the timing and pace of future policy easing, capping risk appetite across equities.

Week Ahead

Indian equities enter the holiday truncated week on a mixed footing, with domestic momentum stabilising after the recent pullback and the rupee showing tentative strength near the Rs 90 level following central bank intervention, even as foreign outflows remain elevated. Benign inflation, with provisional CPI for November at 0.71%, keeps the policy backdrop supportive and provides room for further easing by the RBI, while investors track key domestic data including infrastructure output, money supply, bank credit growth, deposits and foreign exchange reserves for signals on growth and liquidity conditions. Globally, softer US inflation has supported risk appetite, though attention will remain on US GDP, corporate profits, labour market indicators and crude inventory data for cues on growth and policy expectations. In Asia, the Bank of Japan’s rate hike underscores widening policy divergence, which could influence regional currencies and flows, while China’s Loan Prime Rate decision and trade dynamics remain in focus amid resilient exports and softer domestic demand.

Technical Overview
  • The Nifty 50 has entered a phase of healthy consolidation after registering a fresh all-time high near 26,325. While the index witnessed minor profit booking at higher levels, it continues to hold above the 25,900–26,000 zone, indicating that the broader trend structure remains intact. The inability of sellers to push the index decisively below this zone reflects underlying strength.
  • On the weekly timeframe, the index has formed a small-bodied candle with wicks on both sides, highlighting temporary indecision between bulls and bears after a sharp up-move.
  • This price behaviour is typical of a pause or breather phase within a strong uptrend rather than a reversal. Importantly, the index continues to trade well above the long-term rising trendline and the 200-week moving average, confirming that the primary trend remains bullish.
  • On the daily chart, price action resembles a bullish flag-like consolidation. The strong rally from late November has formed the pole, while the recent sideways to slightly corrective movement represents the flag. The index has consistently defended the 25,850–25,900 demand zone, which aligns closely with the rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages, making this area a strong dynamic support. The 200-day moving average continues to slope upward well below current prices, reinforcing long-term trend stability.
  • The RSI has cooled off from overbought levels and is now hovering around 60, suggesting that excess froth has been removed without damaging trend strength. This creates room for the next leg of the rally.
  • The MACD histogram has flattened, reflecting consolidation, but the signal lines remain firmly in positive territory with no bearish crossover, confirming that momentum remains supportive of the broader uptrend.
  • Volumes during the recent consolidation have been lower compared to the breakout phase, which is a constructive sign. The absence of aggressive volume on declines suggests that selling pressure is limited and profit booking is controlled, not distribution.
  • Conclusion:
    Nifty 50 is undergoing a constructive consolidation after a strong rally and record high. The combination of a bullish flag on the daily chart, indecision candle on the weekly chart, stable momentum indicators, and declining volumes during the pullback suggests that the market is gathering strength for the next directional move. As long as the index sustains above the 25,900–26,000 psychological zone, the broader bias remains positive. The preferred strategy continues to be “buy on dips” with a focus on a decisive breakout above the all-time high to trigger the next leg of the uptrend

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Weekly Report: 08th Dec 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Domestic equities ended the week on a muted note, with the frontline indices closing almost flat despite notable intra-week volatility. The market remained under pressure for three out of the five sessions, weighed down by a weakening rupee, persistent FII outflows and caution ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy decision. Sentiment was subdued early in the week as the Sensex and Nifty retreated from record highs amid concerns over foreign outflows, a heavy IPO pipeline and uncertainty around India–US trade negotiations. Conditions worsened mid-week as the rupee slipped to fresh lows, but markets stabilized on Thursday and rebounded sharply on Friday after the RBI delivered a 25-basis-point repo rate cut, helping lift investor sentiment despite mixed global cues. In the week ended on Friday, 05 December 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex rose marginally 5.70 points or 0.01% to settle at 85,712.37. The Nifty 50 index added 16.50 points or 0.06% to settle at 26,186.45.

Week Ahead

Indian equities could start the week on a cautiously hopeful tone. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, offering renewed support to growth and credit-sensitive sectors. On Friday (12 December 2025), the Inflation Rate for the month of November would be announced. In the United States, the weekly ADP Employment data would be released on Tuesday (09 December 2025). On Thursday (11 December 2025), the US Fed would announce its latest interest rate decision. Several Federal Reserve officials favored lowering the target range for the federal funds rate in October, though many could have supported leaving rates unchanged, and some opposed a reduction, minutes from the last FOMC meeting showed. In China, the Balance of Trade data for November 2025 would be unveiled on Monday (08 December 2025). On Wednesday (10 December 2025), the Inflation Rate for November 2025 would be announced. 

Technical Overview
  • The Nifty 50 index has witnessed a week of healthy consolidation after registering a fresh all-time high of 26,325. The index faced minor profit-booking at higher levels but managed to close the week comfortably above the 26,100 mark.
  • On the weekly chart, the index has formed a small-bodied candle with wicks on both sides. This indicates temporary indecision between bulls and bears after a sharp rally, which is a typical characteristic of a breather phase in a strong uptrend.
  • The daily chart structure resembles a bullish flag pattern. The vertical rally from late November forms the pole, and the current sideways movement represents the flag. A breakout from this pattern usually signals trend continuation.
  • The immediate hurdle is the fresh all-time high of 26,325. A breakout above this level will confirm the resumption of the uptrend, opening the path towards the technical extension target of 26,550 – 26,600.
  • The index has successfully defended the 26,000 – 26,050 zone during intraday dips this week. This level, which aligns with the short-term 10-day moving average, is acting as a dynamic support floor.
  • The daily RSI has cooled off from overbought levels and is currently hovering around 60. This implies that the froth has been removed from the market, creating room for the next leg of the rally without being overheated.
  • The MACD histogram on the daily chart has flattened slightly, reflecting the consolidation. However, the signal lines remain firmly in positive territory without a bearish crossover, confirming the primary trend remains bullish.
  • The Parabolic SAR dots continue to trend below the price candles on the daily chart, maintaining a positional buy signal.
  • Volume during this consolidation week has been lower compared to the breakout week. This decline in volume during the pullback is a bullish sign, indicating a lack of aggressive selling pressure at these record highs.
  • Conclusion:The Nifty 50 is undergoing a constructive consolidation phase after hitting a record high of $26,325$. The formation of a “Bullish Flag” on the daily chart and a “Spinning Top” on the weekly chart suggests the market is gathering strength for the next upward move. The primary trend remains robust as long as the index sustains above the $26,000$ psychological mark. The strategy remains “buy on dips” with a focus on a breakout above the all-time high.

 

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Weekly Report: 01st Dec 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equities ended the latest week broadly positive but volatile, with benchmark indices grinding higher while mid- and small-caps underperformed, and global markets showed a cautious risk-on bias aided by strong macro data and softer rate-cut expectations rather than outright fear. The Nifty 50 and Sensex gained around 0.6–0.8% over the week, helped by buying on dips and domestic flows, even as the rupee weakened to fresh lows and FIIs stayed choppy. Midcaps and smallcaps lagged the large-cap benchmarks, reflecting some profit-taking and a shift toward defensives and quality names after an extended outperformance stretch. On the macro side, markets reacted to continued FII selling in November, rupee weakness near record lows, and positioning ahead of key data releases, but domestic institutions and retail investors provided a stabilising bid.

Week Ahead

Q2 FY26 GDP data released on November 28 showed real GDP growth of about 8.2% year-on-year, the fastest in six quarters, reinforcing the “strong growth, easing inflation” narrative and supporting a constructive medium-term equity view. In the coming sessions, traders will watch follow-through reaction to the GDP print, high-frequency indicators (IIP, PMI, credit growth) and any commentary on the proposed India–US trade deal that aims to materially lift bilateral trade. Expect continued sensitivity to FII flows (still net negative YTD) and currency moves; any further rupee pressure or spike in global yields could cap upside in rate-sensitive and import-heavy sectors

Technical Overview
  • The Nifty 50 index has successfully registered a fresh all-time high of 26,310.45 this week. This confirms that the previous V-shaped recovery has transitioned into a new impulse leg, entering blue-sky territory where price discovery takes place.
  • The index has decisively closed the week above the critical breakout level of 26,125. This previous double-top resistance has now been breached, validating the strength of the current bullish trend.
  • On the daily chart, the index is witnessing a healthy consolidation near the highs. After a vertical rally, this pause allows the short-term moving averages to catch up with the price, creating a sustainable base for the next move up.
  • The 15-minute and hourly charts show a “Flag and Pole” type formation developing near the highs. This is typically a bullish continuation pattern, suggesting that once this consolidation resolves, the uptrend should resume.
  • The immediate hurdle is the fresh all-time high of 26,310. A breakout above this level pushes the index further into blue-sky territory, opening a clear path toward the psychological and technical extension target of 26,500 – 26,550.
  • The zone between 26,100 and 26,125 has now undergone a polarity flip, transforming from a major resistance ceiling into the immediate support floor. Bulls are expected to defend this level on any intraday dips. A sustained close below this level will likely trigger a deeper profit-booking slide to 25,800 – 25,850.
  • The daily MACD remains in a strong buy mode with the signal lines diverging upwards above the zero line. The histogram continues to show positive momentum, indicating that the trend is backed by strength.
  • The daily RSI is trending comfortably in the bullish zone. It is strong but has effectively avoided extreme overbought territory during this consolidation, suggesting there is still room for further upside.
  • The Parabolic SAR indicator continues to print dots below the price candles on the daily timeframe, confirming that the positional trend remains firmly on the upside.
  • Conclusion:
    The market remains in a robust bullish structure, having conquered the previous peaks to set a new record high of 26,310. The current price action represents a constructive consolidation above the breakout zone. As long as the 26,100 – 26,125 support level holds, the path of least resistance is up. The strategy remains “buy on dips” with a view towards higher targets in uncharted territory, likely aiming for the psychological 26,500 mark next.

 

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Weekly Report: 24th Nov 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The Indian equity market ended the week with modest gains, supported by the RBI’s trade relief measures for exporters. However, sentiment was tempered by October’s wider trade deficit and a sharp contraction in exports. PMI data signalled continued economic expansion, though manufacturing momentum showed signs of moderation. In the week ended on Friday, 21 November 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex added 669.14 points or 0.79% to settle at 85,231.92. The Nifty 50 index rallied 158.1 points or 0.61% to settle at 26,068.15. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 1.30% to close at 46,655.71. The BSE Small-Cap slipped 1.30% to end at 52,011.66. On the economic front, India’s exports contracted 11.8% to $34.38 billion in October, showed government data released on Monday. Imports jumped 16.63% to $76.06 billion. The country’s trade deficit stood at $41.68 billion during the reporting month.

Week Ahead

Indian markets enter the week ahead with a cautiously optimistic tone. Domestically, India’s flash HSBC Composite PMI slipped to 59.9, dragged down by manufacturing (dropping to a nine-month low of 57.4), hinting at a loss of momentum despite still-strong services demand. Policymakers may face renewed pressure to support growth as inflation eases to record lows, fueling expectations of a further RBI rate cut. On the trade front, ongoing U.S-tariff discussions continue: despite 50% U.S. duties, India’s drop in exports has been more moderate, giving government room to negotiate, especially with signals of a potential rollback. Meanwhile, China’s economy shows strains — weak consumption, slowing industrial output, and its growth now projected at 4.8% by IMF — which could dampen demand for commodities and weigh on global sentiment.

Technical Overview
  1. The Nifty 50 index has completed a remarkable V-shaped recovery on the daily chart, fully negating the previous week’s bearish failed breakout signal. This aggressive buying indicates strong underlying demand and a resumption of the primary uptrend.
  2. The index has decisively filled and reclaimed the bearish gap zone that was created during the prior fall. This zone has now flipped from resistance to a strong immediate support base.
  3. This week’s candle on the weekly chart is a robust bullish candle closing near its high of 26,068. This confirms that the bulls have regained total control on the higher timeframes and are poised to challenge the all-time highs.
  4. The price is currently testing the critical supply zone near 26,125. The daily chart shows a minor upper wick on Friday’s candle, indicating some expected profit-booking at this double-top resistance level.
  5. Volume participation has been healthy during this recovery rally, validating the price action. The buying has been consistent, unlike a low-volume dead cat bounce.
  6. The daily MACD has confirmed a bullish crossover and the histogram is expanding upwards. This signals that the momentum is strong and the trend has shifted firmly to the buy side.
  7. The daily RSI has moved comfortably into the bullish zone. It is rising but not yet in extreme overbought territory, suggesting there is still room for the upside before a major cool-off is needed.
  8. The Parabolic SAR dots remain below the price candles on the daily chart, maintaining a clear “buy” signal and confirming the active short-term uptrend.
  9. The immediate strategy shifts to “buy on dips” with 25,800 – 25,850 acting as the new support floor. A sustained close above 26,125 will open the doors for a fresh rally towards 26,350+.

Conclusion:
The market structure has turned firmly bullish with the completion of a V-shaped recovery. The bulls have successfully recaptured the 26,000 mark and are testing the all-time high resistance at 26,125. While minor consolidation near this double-top is possible, the trend remains positive as long as the 25,850 support holds. A breakout above 26,125 triggers the next leg of the rally into “blue-sky” territory.

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Weekly Report: 10th Nov 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The Indian equity market ended the week on a cautious note as profit-taking and global uncertainties weighed on sentiment. Market volatility persisted, reflecting mixed corporate earnings and signs of moderating domestic growth. Manufacturing activity strengthened, supported by GST relief and productivity gains, while services growth eased slightly but remained in expansionary territory. Broader markets were relatively resilient, with midcaps edging higher. Among key movers, BPCL, Britannia, and SBI lent support, while Power Grid and Airtel dragged on indices. Globally, weak Chinese manufacturing data, a decline in exports, and rising U.S. layoffs amid an extended government shutdown dampened risk appetite. Investors remained watchful of upcoming macroeconomic cues and global developments, which are expected to guide near-term market direction.

Week Ahead

Indian equities are expected to begin the week on a cautiously optimistic note as investors track corporate earnings, global cues, and key macroeconomic data. Domestically, focus will be on inflation prints, with consumer price data due Wednesday and wholesale price data on Friday, offering insights into near-term monetary policy expectations. A moderation in inflation could reinforce the case for a supportive stance by the Reserve Bank of India. Global sentiment will hinge on U.S. inflation readings and crude inventory data, which could influence commodity prices and risk appetite. Meanwhile, China’s industrial output and retail sales figures will be closely watched for signals on global demand recovery and trade momentum.

Technical Overview
  • The daily chart shows a classic pullback scenario. After breaking out to a new swing high, the index has faced rejection and is retracing.
  • This is currently viewed as a corrective move within a broader uptrend, not a complete trend reversal yet.
  • The index is firmly above its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA). This line acts as the critical intermediate support for the coming week.
  • As long as the price sustains above this 50 DMA on a closing basis, the medium-term bullish structure remains intact despite the current weakness.
  • The previous breakout zone of 25,640 – 25,660 has now flipped into an immediate resistance barrier. Any bounce during the week is likely to face selling pressure in this area.
  • The daily MACD has registered a bearish crossover, the fast line has crossed below the slow line
  • This indicates that short-term momentum has shifted in favour of the bears, supporting the case for further consolidation or a deeper pullback this week.
  • The Daily RSI is cooling off from near-overbought levels. It is currently trending lower, reflecting the easing of immediate bullish sustained pressure.
  • But it has not yet hit oversold territory, suggesting there might be more room for this corrective phase to play out.
  • The failed attempt to hold the swing high has likely introduced caution. The market is in a “wait-and-watch” mode to see if the 50 DMA support attracts fresh buying interest.
  • Conclusion:
    For the upcoming week, the outlook on the daily timeframe is cautiously neutral to slightly bearish. The index is undergoing a healthy correction after a failed breakout. The primary focus for the week will be testing the 50 DMAsupport. Holding this level is crucial for the bulls to regroup; a break below it would signal a deeper corrective phase. Immediate upside is capped at 25,640.
  •  

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Weekly Report: 03rd Nov 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The key domestic indices closed with moderate losses, weighed down by weak global cues. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid continued uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade negotiations and the US Federal Reserve’s policy direction. However, market participants are now shifting their focus to the upcoming Q2 earnings season. India’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $4.496 billion to $702.28 billion for the week ending October 17, while the country’s reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declined by $30 million. Meanwhile, India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 4% in September 2025 compared to the same month last year. Globally, US President Donald Trump described his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30, 2025, as a “roaring success.” He announced that the US would reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, while China agreed to resume exports of rare earth elements and purchase American soybeans. Trump also mentioned that discussions covered the potential export of advanced computer chips to China, with Nvidia expected to hold further talks with Chinese officials, adding that a trade deal could be signed “very soon.”

Week Ahead

The Indian equity market is expected to remain firm but may experience bouts of volatility amid key global and domestic data releases. The US Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% on October 29, 2025. However, Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks tempered expectations of another rate cut in December, leading to a mild global pullback overnight. On the domestic front, the final reading of the HSBC Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will be released on Tuesday, November 4. The M3 Money Supply data for the week ended October 17 will be published on Wednesday, November 5, followed by the final readings of the HSBC Services PMI and HSBC Composite PMI for October 2025 on Thursday, November 6. Globally, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for October 2025 is scheduled for release on Monday, November 3, while the JOLTs Job Openings data for September will be announced on Tuesday, November 4. In China, the Balance of Trade data for October 2025 will be released on Friday, November 7.

Technical Overview
  • The Nifty 50 has experienced a failed breakout, which is a significant bearish development in the short term. The index failed to hold above the previous swing high of 26,104 and has now broken down.

  •  The price has decisively breached the previous Gap Zone. This area, is now expected to act as strong support, as seen clearly on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts.

  • This week’s candle on the weekly chart is a large bearish candle that has closed near its low, effectively engulfing the prior week’s indecisive Doji. This confirms a rejection from the highs and a strong shift in momentum.

  • Volume has expanded during this decline, particularly on the daily chart’s large red candle. This indicates strong profit booking conviction and validates the consolidation.

  • The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart has broken below the 60 levels, signaling a loss of bullish momentum and a shift to a bearish bias.

  • The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts is on a clear “sell” signal. The daily MACD has likely registered a bearish crossover, confirming the change in the short-term trend.

  • The Parabolic SAR has flipped above the price on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts, generating a “sell” signal and confirming the new downtrend.

  • The ADX (Average Directional Index) indicator is showing a high reading above 30. This reflects the strength of the prior uptrend. A high ADX value, combined with a sharp price reversal, warns that the new downtrend could also be very strong and volatile.

  • The next major support level to watch is the zone between 25,650 and 25,520, which aligns with the previous swing high and the descending trendline on chart.

     

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Weekly Report: 27th Oct 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equity markets ended the week on a mixed note, as investors weighed corporate earnings with broader economic trends. Slower infrastructure growth and moderation in private sector activity reflected weaker energy output and cautious export, while strong performances by select companies led to sector-specific gains. Overall, steady corporate results supported markets, though mixed macroeconomic indicators kept sentiment cautious yet resilient. India’s HSBC Flash Composite PMI Output Index declined to 59.9 in October. The Services PMI Business Activity Index also eased to 58.8, while the Manufacturing PMI rose to a two-month high of 58.4. The Manufacturing Output Index increased, reaching 62.4. Globally, China’s economy expanded slightly above expectations in the third quarter of 2025, with official data showing a 4.8% year-on-year GDP growth in the three months to September 30. Meanwhile, China’s central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, in line with expectations. In Japan, the core inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% in September, with headline inflation also rising to 2.9%.

Week Ahead

Equity investors can expect a cautiously optimistic trading sentiment for the week of October 25-31, supported by strong domestic corporate earnings and generally positive global cues. The key domestic focus remains the robust Q2 results season, while optimism is further lifted by the White House confirming a meeting between the US and Chinese Presidents next week, a factor likely to ease geopolitical risk and boost market confidence. On the domestic front, India’s industrial production data for September will be released on Tuesday (28 October), followed by M3 Money Supply figures on Wednesday (29 October), and the government’s budget value for September on Friday (31 October). Globally, China will release year-to-date industrial profit and FDI data for the period ended September 30. In the US, key releases include the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (27 October), S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (28 October), API Crude Oil Stock Change, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision (29 October).

Technical Overview
  • The primary bullish trend, confirmed by last week’s decisive breakout above 25,640, remains firmly intact on the weekly and daily charts.
  • The index is currently undergoing a short-term, healthy pullback after hitting a high near 26,000. This “retest” of the breakout zone is a common and constructive price action, allowing the market to consolidate its gains.
  • This week’s candle on the weekly chart is a Spinning Top or Doji, closing at 25,795.15. This signifies indecision and a pause in momentum, which is normal after a powerful breakout.
  • The previous resistance zone of 25,500−25,630 has now become the critical, immediate support level. The bulls must defend this area to maintain the upward trajectory.
  • Volume during this week’s pullback has been noticeably lower than the volume seen during last week’s breakout. This is a bullish sign, suggesting the decline is driven by profit-taking rather than aggressive, new selling pressure.
  • The daily RSI has cooled off from overbought territory, which is healthy and builds energy for the next potential up-move. The weekly RSI remains in a strong bullish momentum zone.
  • The MACD on the daily and weekly timeframes remains on a “buy” signal, confirming the primary trend is up. However, the 1-hour chart shows a bearish crossover, reflecting the current short-term correction.
  • The daily and weekly charts’ Parabolic SAR dots are still positioned below the price, indicating the major uptrend is active. The 1-hour chart’s SAR has flipped above the price, confirming the short-term pullback.

 Conclusion:
The Nifty 50’s primary trend is unequivocally bullish. The current weakness is a textbook low-volume pullback to retest the breakout level of 25,500−25,630. This zone is now the critical support to watch. As long as the index holds above this level, the bullish structure is secure, and this pause should be viewed as a consolidation before the next leg of the rally.

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Weekly Report: 20th Oct 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The key equity benchmarks ended with robust gains, extending their winning streak for the third consecutive week. The rally was supported by upbeat Q2 corporate earnings and encouraging economic data. The market advanced in three out of five trading sessions during the week. On the economic front, India’s retail inflation slipped to 1.5% in September from 2.1% in the preceding month mainly due to subdued prices of food items, including vegetables and pulses, according to government data released on Monday. India’s wholesale price inflation moderated more-than-expected in September from a 4-month high in August, provisional data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed on Tuesday. Going ahead, Investor will focus on the upcoming Q2 results from, Bharti Airtel, Colpal and Dr Reddy. Additionally, investors will keep a close watch on global cues, brent crude oil prices, and key economic indicators for further direction.

Week Ahead

Indian equities enter the week of Oct 18–24, 2025 with a cautiously optimistic undertone, riding on robust domestic flows and easing external headwinds. The Nifty climbed to a one-year high on October 17, buoyed by strong buying in Reliance and easing yields in the US Meanwhile, the RBI reportedly intervened in forex markets, selling up to $5 billion to support the rupee amid external pressures. On the global front, the IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast, citing more benign tariff impacts and resilient private sector momentum. That said, China’s export trajectory is moderating, and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions loom as downside risks. Volatility may rise ahead of US Fed signals and major corporate earnings that are slated for release in the coming weeks. In India, the Infrastructure Output figures for the September 2025 period would be made public on Tuesday. The infrastructure output in India expanded by 6.3% from the previous year in Aug 2025, accelerating from the upwardly revised 3.2% increase in the previous month, to mark the sharpest pace of growth in one year.

Technical Overview
  • The Nifty 50 index has successfully broken out of its multi-month consolidation range, decisively closing above the critical all-time high resistance of 25,640. This action signals the resumption of the primary bullish trend.
  • The weekly chart confirms the breakout with a strong, bullish candle closing near its high. This indicates powerful buying conviction on a higher timeframe, suggesting institutional participation.
  • Volume accompanying the breakout is robust and significantly above average. This strong participation validates the legitimacy of the move and increases the probability of a sustained uptrend.
  • The RSI has decisively broken above the 60 level on both daily and weekly timeframes. This confirms a significant shift from a neutral, sideways momentum to a strong bullish momentum, indicating that buyers are firmly in control.
  • The MACD indicator has registered a fresh bullish crossover above the zero line. The expanding histogram confirms that upward momentum is not only present but accelerating.
  • The Parabolic SAR has flipped below the price candles, generating a clear buy signal. This suggests that the prior ranging period has concluded and a new, sustained uptrend has commenced.
  • The price has also breached the short-term descending trendline that was capping the highs since July, adding another layer of technical confirmation.
  • The previous resistance zone between 25,400 and 25,640 is now expected to transform into the new critical support level. Any minor pullbacks to re-test this area should now be viewed as potential buying opportunities.

Conclusion:

The Nifty 50’s consolidation has resolved decisively to the upside. The confirmed breakout above 25,640 on strong volume, now supported by bullish confirmations from key momentum indicators like RSI, MACD, and Parabolic SAR, signals a robust resumption of the primary uptrend. The market bias is firmly bullish, and the strategy should pivot to buy on dips, with the old resistance at 25,640 now acting as the new support floor.

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Weekly Report: 14th Oct 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Domestic equities ended the week on a strong note, buoyed by upbeat corporate earnings, optimistic Q2 updates, and supportive global cues. The Sensex and Nifty posted healthy gains, extending their winning streak for the second consecutive week as investor sentiment remained upbeat following the RBI’s upward revision of India’s GDP growth forecast for FY26. Broader market participation was evident, with mid-caps outperforming while small-caps largely consolidated. Globally, improved growth projections for China and a stable macro backdrop lent further support to risk appetite, even as trade tensions and political developments in Europe kept investors cautious. On the domestic front, PMI readings suggested moderation in activity, but overall business conditions remained resilient, reinforcing optimism about sustained economic momentum.

Week Ahead

The domestic equity market enters the upcoming week with a cautiously optimistic tone, as focus shifts firmly to the Q2 earnings season. Overall, while strong domestic fundamentals and steady FII inflows underpin a constructive outlook, volatility may persist amid global macro uncertainties and evolving earnings commentary. On the macro front, key domestic data releases will keep investors engaged. CPI for September (October 13) will offer insight into retail price trends, particularly food and fuel costs, ahead of the RBI’s next policy meet. This will be followed by the WPI Food Inflation on October 14 and the Unemployment Rate for September on October 15, providing a deeper read on supply-side pressures and labor market conditions. Globally, markets will track a busy economic calendar and central bank commentary. China’s September trade data (October 13) will offer cues on export demand, followed by its inflation report on October 15. In the US, remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (October 14) and a series of key inflation prints, including CPI and Core Inflation (October 15), PPI and Retail Sales (October 16), and housing data (October 17).

Technical Overview
  • The index is consolidating in a well-defined range, with a strong resistance zone between 25,300 and 25,640. Multiple attempts to break out have been met with supply, indicating profit-taking at higher levels.
  • A firm support base has been established near the 24,800 mark. This level has acted as a demand zone on several occasions, absorbing selling pressure and preventing a deeper correction.
  • The price is trading above the long-term 200-period moving average, confirming that the secular bull trend remains intact.
  • However, the shorter-term moving average ribbon is flattening on both daily and weekly charts, signaling a clear loss of upward momentum and a shift into a sideways phase.
  • The chart structure shows a classic rectangular consolidation pattern. This typically represents a pause in the prevailing trend, often leading to a powerful continuation move once the range is resolved.
  • Volume has been unremarkable within the range, suggesting a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears. A significant increase in volume will be a key confirmation signal for either a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support.
  • The price action is currently situated in a between the established support and resistance levels. Trading within this area carries a higher risk due to the lack of a clear directional trend.
  • A decisive weekly close above the high of 25,640 is required to invalidate the current consolidation and signal the resumption of the primary uptrend.
  • Conversely, a breakdown and sustained close below the critical 24,800 support would suggest the consolidation is resolving to the downside, potentially triggering a move towards the next major support zone around 24,8600−24,500.
  • Conclusion:
    The Nifty 50 index is in a state of equilibrium, coiling within a defined range between 24,800 on the downside and the 25,300−25,640 zone on the upside. While the long-term trend remains bullish, the immediate outlook is neutral. The market is awaiting a catalyst to force a breakout or a breakdown from this consolidation. A move beyond these key levels will dictate the next directional leg for the index.

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Weekly Report: 06th Oct 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The key equity benchmarks ended the truncated week with substantial gains, snapping a six-session losing streak. The rally was supported by the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee, which kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.5%. The central bank lowered its FY26 inflation forecast and raised its GDP growth projection. Broader market outperformed the frontline indices. The headline equity indices ended marginally lower on Monday, extending their losing streak to a seventh straight session. The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 61.52 points, or 0.08%, to 80,364.94. The Nifty 50 declined 19.80 points, or 0.08%, to 24,634.90. Over the seven sessions, the Sensex has dropped 3.19% and the Nifty has lost 3.10%. India’s industrial output grew by 4% in August as against the growth of 4.3% in July, according to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Monday. In China, the Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 49.8, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. While still in contraction, the latest reading was the strongest since March.

Week Ahead

Indian equities enter the next trading week on a cautiously optimistic note. India’s Finance Minister affirmed resilient growth and pledged elevated capital spending to offset external headwinds. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is delaying key macro data—creating a data vacuum that could complicate rate expectations ahead of the Fed’s October meeting. On the domestic front, the HSBC Services PMI Final for September 2025 would be released on Monday (06 October 2025). The HSBC India Services PMI fell to 61.6 in September 2025, down from 62.9 in August, according to preliminary estimates. In the United States, the Balance of Trade figures for August 2025 would be made public on Tuesday (07 October 2025). On Thursday (09 October 2025), the FOMC Minutes would be made public. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, bringing it to the 4.00%–4.25% range. It is the first reduction in borrowing costs since December.

Technical Overview
  • Nifty extended its recovery after testing a low near 24,600 and managed to hold above key short-term supports.
  • The index is now trading around 24,900–25,000, displaying stability after last week’s correction. While the rebound has been gradual, the index continues to show resilience near its crucial support zone.
  • The overall trend remains positive, with the index forming a higher low pattern near 24,600. However, the pace of the uptrend has slowed as Nifty continues to trade within a narrow consolidation band of 24,600–25,200.
  • Immediate support lies at 24,750–24,800, followed by 24,600. A breach below 24,600 could trigger mild profit booking towards 24,400, though the broader bullish trend remains intact above this zone.
  • On the upside, 25,000–25,200 will act as the immediate resistance zone. Sustaining above this band could open the path towards 25,450–25,600 in the short term.
  • Nifty is currently trading above its 100-day EMA, suggesting near-term strength, while the 50-day EMA near 24,900 continues to provide strong structural resistance.
  • Volumes have been moderate, indicating that the current recovery is a controlled, accumulation-driven move rather than a high-momentum breakout.
  • The RSI around 49 reflects neutral momentum, suggesting a balanced setup. A move beyond 55 would signal strengthening momentum on the upside.
  • The ADX at 18 indicates a low-trend phase, consistent with the ongoing consolidation. A rise above 25 would mark a renewed directional move in the index.
  • The MACD remains flat, highlighting that selling pressure has eased, though buyers are yet to gain full control. A positive crossover above 25,000 would strengthen the case for an extended recovery.
  • Conclusion:
    Nifty showed signs of stability this week, managing to hold above the crucial 24,600 mark and reclaiming the 25,000 level. The index now faces resistance between 25,000–25,200, and a breakout above this zone could open the way for a move toward 25,450–25,600. On the downside, 24,600 remains a key support to watch. The trend remains constructive but slow, with momentum indicators showing a neutral bias. As long as Nifty holds above 24,600, the short-term outlook stays positive with a potential upward bias.
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