Weekly Report: 07th March, 2026

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equities ended the week sharply lower as escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia and a spike in crude oil prices triggered a risk off sentiment across markets. Benchmarks declined in three of the four trading sessions, with the Nifty slipping below 24,500 and broader markets also witnessing notable declines, amid persistent FII outflows and a weakening rupee. The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran intensified following strikes on Iranian infrastructure and attacks on Saudi energy facilities, pushing Brent crude higher and raising concerns around global supply chains. While domestic activity indicators remained resilient, with manufacturing PMI rising to a four month high and the composite PMI strengthening, global macro signals remained mixed as China’s factory activity slipped into contraction and higher US producer inflation reinforced concerns around sticky price pressures.

Week Ahead

Indian equities head into the coming week under pressure after a sharp late week sell off, with elevated volatility driven by the spike in crude oil prices following disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating US Iran tensions. Brent crude moving above $87 per barrel and the surge in India VIX signal heightened risk aversion, although strong external buffers such as forex reserves above $728 billion may provide some stability. Domestically, investors will monitor money supply data, February inflation and weekly forex reserves for cues on liquidity and price trends. Globally, attention will remain on key macro indicators including US inflation, GDP estimates, labour market data and housing activity, alongside crude inventory trends, while China’s inflation, trade balance and forex reserves data will offer signals on global demand conditions.  

Technical Overview
  • On the weekly timeframe, the index has printed another strong bearish candle with a relatively large real body, indicating that sellers maintained firm control throughout the week. The failure to hold above the previously established support near 25,000–25,050 confirms a structural breakdown of the earlier consolidation range.

  • The most critical development in the recent sell-off is the decisive breakdown below the long-term 200-day moving average, which had historically acted as a key dynamic support during prior pullbacks. The violation of this level signals a shift in medium-term market structure from bullish consolidation to corrective weakness.

  • Price action has also invalidated the earlier rectangular consolidation structure, where the index had been trading between roughly 25,700 and 25,050. The breakdown below the lower boundary of this range triggered accelerated selling pressure and momentum-driven liquidation.

  • On lower timeframes, the market structure has transitioned into a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the establishment of a short-term downtrend. Any minor rebound attempts have been sold into, indicating overhead supply and weak buyer participation.

  • The immediate support zone now lies around 24,200–24,350, which coincides with a previously tested demand area. A sustained breach below this level could expose the index to a deeper corrective extension toward the broader structural support near 23,800–24,000.

  • From a resistance perspective, the 25,000–25,100 region now acts as the first supply zone, followed by stronger resistance near 25,250–25,350, where the breakdown initially accelerated. Any recovery toward these zones is likely to encounter selling pressure from trapped long positions.

  • The structural breakdown has also been supported by expanding downside volume, particularly during the sharp declines seen in the recent sessions. Elevated participation during the fall suggests institutional distribution and liquidation of weak hands.

  • Momentum indicators further confirm the weakening structure. The daily RSI has slipped sharply into bearish territory, reflecting persistent downside momentum and absence of strong buying interest.

Conclusion:Overall, the Nifty 50 has undergone a decisive structural breakdown after failing to sustain above the 26,200 supply zone, resulting in a sharp corrective move toward the 24,300 demand region. The breach of the 200-day moving average and the prior consolidation support indicate that the market has shifted into a more fragile, distribution-driven phase. While the 24,200–24,350 zone may offer temporary stabilization, a decisive breakdown below this area could accelerate the correction toward 23,800–24,000. On the upside, any technical rebound is likely to run into strong supply near 25,000–25,250, keeping the broader bias tilted toward a cautious-to-bearish bias in the near term.

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Weekly Report: 28th February, 2026

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equity markets ended the week sharply lower amid sustained FII outflows, a steep correction in IT stocks, and volatility linked to monthly F&O expiry, compounded by weak global cues and rising geopolitical tensions. For the week ended 27 February 2026, the Sensex fell 1.84% to 81,287 and the Nifty declined 1.53% to 25,179, while mid- and small-cap indices also slipped. Banking stocks were hit after fraud-related developments at IDFC First Bank and AU Small Finance Bank, adding to sentiment pressure. Macro data remained supportive, with India’s Q3 GDP growth at 7.8% and FY26 growth estimate revised to 7.6% under the new base year series, though global concerns persisted as U.S. Q4 growth slowed to 1.4% and geopolitical tensions escalated following Pakistan’s military action in Afghanistan and PM Modi’s Israel visit. Stock-specific action remained active, with gains in Schaeffler India and Aurobindo Pharma, while select midcaps saw sharp moves on order wins, fundraising plans, and management changes.

Week Ahead

Indian equity markets head into the week on a strong domestic footing, supported by robust Q3 FY26 GDP growth of 7.8% (above estimates) and easing inflation at 2.75%, alongside healthy PMI readings indicating broad-based expansion in manufacturing (57.5), services (58.4) and composite activity (59.3). Industrial production growth of 7.9% further reinforces momentum, keeping banking and auto sectors in focus amid steady credit growth and rural recovery, while export-oriented IT may remain cautious given global uncertainties. However, global cues remain mixed, with sticky U.S. core PCE at 3.0%, slowing Chinese manufacturing (NBS PMI at 49.3), and weak FDI trends highlighting fragile external demand. The week ahead will be data-heavy, including India’s PMI updates, IIP and forex reserves, China’s PMI readings and FDI data, and key U.S. releases such as ISM PMIs, Non-Farm Payrolls, retail sales, and unemployment rate, which could shape near-term market direction.

Technical Overview
  • The Nifty 50 index has suffered a violent structural breakdown this week, decisively resolving the recent narrow-range consolidation to the downside. The index capitulated to aggressive supply pressure, particularly in the final trading sessions, ending the week near its absolute lows at 25,181.80.
  • On the weekly chart, the index has printed a robust Bearish Candle with a massive real body and virtually no lower shadow. This aggressive price action dictates that sellers maintained relentless control throughout the entire week, forcing long liquidations without offering any meaningful intraday recovery.
  • The most critical technical casualty of this sell-off is the high-conviction breakdown below the long-term 200-day Moving Average. The failure to defend this sacrosanct trend-filter fundamentally shifts the positional bias from neutral to firmly bearish.
  • The index has violently violated the lower boundary of its prior rectangular consolidation block. Lower timeframes depict a classic “waterfall” decline, structurally turning all former demand zones into massive overhead supply overhangs.
  • The immediate critical support rests at the previous panic swing lows of 24,850 – 24,890. A capitulation below this zone opens the floodgates for a deeper, protracted correction toward the structural demand zones near 24,500.
  • The former support base has now flipped to formidable resistance at 25,350 – 25,450 encompassing the breached 200-DMA and the prior range bottom. Only a high-volume daily close back above this supply cluster would trap the late short-sellers and negate the immediate bearish implications of this breakdown.
  • The structural breakdown was validated by exceptionally high distribution volume on the daily chart, particularly during the gap-down and subsequent plunge in the final session. This significant volume spike confirms institutional offloading and the capitulation of weak hands.
  • The daily RSI has plunged precipitously from the neutral 50-mark deeply into bearish territory, currently printing with a steep downward trajectory. This violent deterioration confirms intense and unyielding bearish momentum.
  • The daily MACD histogram has expanded aggressively in negative territory. The signal lines have accelerated their downward divergence, confirming that the intermediate downtrend has gathered immense strength.

Conclusion:

  • The Nifty 50 has sustained a major technical fracture, aggressively breaking down from its tightening range. The sheer velocity of the fall, combined with the high-volume violation of the 200-day Moving Average, confirms a profound structural weakness. The market texture has drastically transitioned from a “range-bound squeeze” to a definitive “Sell on Rise” environment. Any technical pullbacks or dead-cat bounces are highly likely to be met with severe institutional selling pressure at the newly established resistance levels.

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Weekly Report: 22nd Feb, 2026

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equity benchmarks closed the week with moderate gains, as the Sensex and the Nifty advanced in four of the five trading sessions. Market sentiment stayed positive, supported by investor optimism around the AI summit held in India, which helped offset concerns over weak economic data and mixed global cues. During the week, investors closely tracked key economic data releases from the UK, the US, and India, as these indicators are expected to shape the market’s growth outlook in the coming sessions. India’s wholesale price index (WPI) inflation rose to 1.81% in January 2026 from 0.83% in December 2025. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI improved to 57.5 in February 2026 from 55.4 in January. On the global front, the US trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion in December from a revised $53.0 billion in November, while Japan’s economy expanded by a modest 0.1% on an annualized basis in the December quarter.

Week Ahead

Indian equities enter the coming week on a mixed, volatile note, following sharp swings in recent sessions. Sectoral divergence has continued to widen, with banking and capital goods stocks providing support, while IT stocks remained under pressure, reflecting ongoing rotation within the market. Amid elevated volatility and mixed global cues, investor preference may stay tilted toward large-cap stocks and themes with clear earnings visibility. Market participants are also likely to closely monitor currency movements and global risk sentiment for a clearer direction. On the domestic front, India’s GDP growth data for the quarter ended December is scheduled to be released on Friday, 27 February 2026. The government’s budget value for the period ending January 2026 will also be announced. Globally, China is set to release its one-year and five-year loan prime rates on Tuesday, 24 February 2026, alongside the US Employment Change Weekly data. Further, the US initial jobless claims data for the week ended February 21 will be released on Thursday, 26 February 2026.

Technical Overview
  • The Nifty 50 index has witnessed a week of consolidation with a negative bias, failing to sustain higher levels and consistently surrendering intraday gains. The index faced persistent supply pressure to close near the week’s lows at 25,572.
  • On the weekly chart, the index has formed a bearish candle with a prominent upper shadow and virtually no lower wick. This specific price action is a strong indication of overhead supply; it shows that while the bulls attempted a recovery rally early in the week, they were overwhelmed by aggressive institutional selling at higher levels.
  • The daily chart reveals a classic compression phase. The index is trapped between the 200-day Moving Average and the 50-day Moving Average. The long upper wick on the weekly candle confirms a sharp and deliberate rejection exactly from this 50-DMA supply zone.
  • On the lower timeframes, the market structure outlines a sideways consolidation block. However, the repeated rejections from the upper boundary near 25,750 reinforce a “Sell on Rise” texture within this tight range.
  • The immediate support base is clustered around 25,300 – 25,450. A sustained breakdown below the 200-DMA would violate the consolidation range downwards, confirming a structural weakness that exposes the recent panic lows near 24,850.
  • The formidable overhead hurdle is the 50-DMA supply zone at 25,740 – 25,750. A high-volume close above this dynamic resistance will negate the bearish implications of this week’s upper shadow, signaling a bullish breakout with an initial target of 26,050.
  • Volume remained relatively muted during the upward attempts but showed subtle upticks on the rejection days, hinting at distribution near the resistance levels.
  • The daily RSI is hovering in the neutral-to-bearish zone, currently printing near 45-48, unable to decisively cross and sustain above the 50-mark. This reflects a lack of bullish momentum and the dominance of the overhead sellers.
  • The daily MACD remains in negative territory. While the selling momentum had paused, the histogram shows no signs of bullish expansion, indicating the trend remains vulnerable.
  • Conclusion:The Nifty 50 is caught in a tight technical squeeze, but the weekly candle structure clearly tilts the short-term bias in favor of the bears. The prominent upper shadow, coupled with the lack of a lower wick, signifies that overhead supply at the 50-DMA (25,750) is formidable and aggressive. Until this resistance is conquered on a closing basis, the index remains vulnerable to testing the lower bounds of its consolidation range. The market is awaiting a decisive breakout from the 25,300 – 25,750 band to establish its next primary trend.

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Weekly Report: 16th Feb 2026

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equity benchmarks ended the week lower, weighed down by heavy selling in IT stocks and fading hopes of near-term US rate cuts after stronger-than-expected US jobs data. Markets had begun the week on a firm footing, supported by FII inflows, optimism around the India–US trade agreement and positive Asian cues, but sentiment turned cautious mid-week ahead of key global triggers. On the economic front, India’s retail inflation stood at 2.75% in January 2026 under the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) series with base year 2024=100.  Meanwhile, the central government’s net direct tax collections, after accounting for refunds, stood at Rs 19.43 lakh crore so far this fiscal year, up 9.4% from a year earlier. On the Global front, The China’s consumer price index rose 0.2% in January from a year earlier. In U.S, December retail sales report showed that consumer spending was flat following a 0.6% increase in November, missing the 0.4% monthly gain that was widely expected.

Week Ahead

Indian equities head into the next trading week under marked pressure and elevated volatility after a sharp late-week sell-off. Domestic benchmarks ended the week on a significantly weaker note, with the Nifty dipping below 25,500 and the Sensex dropping over 1,000 pts amid broad-based weakness, including tech and cyclical stocks. Globally, markets retreated from record highs as concerns around tech earnings and cautious positioning ahead of U.S. inflation data weighed on sentiment. With macro headwinds and policy uncertainties lingering, large-caps and defensive sectors could remain in foucs as investors continue to monitor global inflation cues and earnings signals for directional clarity. In India, Wholesales Price Index data for the month of January would be released on Monday. The Balance of Trade data for January 2026 would also be announced on the same day. In the US, the ADP Employment Change Weekly figures would be announced on Tuesday. On Thursday, the FOMC Minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve Meeting would be made public.

Technical Overview
  • On the weekly timeframe, Nifty continues to trade above its 20-week and 50-week moving averages, confirming that the primary trend remains positive despite recent volatility.
  • The 10–20 MA cloud on the weekly chart is still upward sloping, and price is holding near it, indicating structural strength within a broader consolidation phase. The 200-week moving average remains far below current levels, reinforcing long-term bullish bias.
  • However, the index has repeatedly failed to break out of the 26,200–26,250 resistance zone, highlighting persistent supply and profit-booking at higher levels that have capped upside momentum.
  • On the daily chart, Nifty has seen a sharp corrective move from the upper resistance band and is currently hovering near the 25,450–25,500 support zone, which aligns with prior breakout levels and short-term demand.
  • This zone is acting as a make-or-break support. Candles in this area show long lower wicks and smaller real bodies, suggesting that buying interest is emerging on declines rather than aggressive selling.
  • From an indicator perspective, RSI on the daily chart has cooled towards the 40–45 zone, reflecting weak momentum but not an oversold condition, suggesting scope for either consolidation or a technical bounce.
  • MACD remains in negative territory but is flattening, indicating that selling pressure is slowing and downside momentum is not accelerating further.
  • ADX remains subdued, confirming that the market is currently in a non-trending, consolidation-to-corrective phase rather than a strong directional move.

Conclusion:                                                                           

  • Overall, Nifty is undergoing a short-term corrective consolidation within a broader uptrend. As long as the index holds above the 25,450–25,500 support zone, the larger structure remains intact with scope for stabilization and recovery. A decisive breakout above 25,900–26,000 with volume is required to resume upside momentum, while a sustained breakdown below 25,300–25,200 could open the door for a deeper corrective move towards the 25,000 demand zone.

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Weekly Report: 1st Feb 2026

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian stock market was shut on Monday, 26 January 2026, for Republic Day. Benchmark equity indices closed with modest gains on Tuesday. The S&P BSE Sensex jumped 319.78 points or 0.39% to 81,857.48. The Nifty 50 index added 126.75 points or 0.51% to 25,175.40. The domestic equities ended higher on Wednesday. The S&P BSE Sensex advanced 487.20 points, or 0.60%, to 82,344.68, while the Nifty 50 gained 167.35 points, or 0.66%, to settle at 25,342.75. The key equity benchmarks ended with modest gains on Thursday. The S&P BSE Sensex jumped 221.69 points or 0.27% to 82,566.37. The Nifty 50 index added 76.15 points or 0.30% to 25,418.90. The key equity benchmarks ended with modest cuts on Friday. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 296.59 points or 0.36% to 82,269.78. The Nifty 50 index lost 98.25 points or 0.39% to 25,320.65. India and the European Union on January 27, 2026, concluded a landmark Free Trade Agreement at the 16th India-EU Summit, marking a major milestone in bilateral economic ties between the world’s 4th and 2nd largest economies, togetheraccounting for about 25% of global GDP.

Week Ahead

With the Union Budget now imminent, investors should monitor policy cues, crude price volatility and FII activity, favouring quality large-caps and export-linked sectors while navigating short-term risk-off phases. In India, the India Union Budget for 2026-27 would be announced on Sunday (01 February 2026). On Monday (02 February 2026), the HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final for January 2026 would be released. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.8 in January 2026 from 55.0 in December,
marking the strongest improvement in operating conditions in three months, according to preliminary estimates. On Friday (06 February 2026), the RBI would be announce its interest rate decision through the release of the latest monetary policy.

Technical Overview
  • On the weekly timeframe, Nifty continues to trade above its 20-week and 50-week moving averages, confirming that the broader trend remains positive.
  • The 10–20 MA cloud on the weekly chart is upward sloping and price is holding above it, which indicates structural strength despite recent consolidation. The long-term 200-week moving average remains far below current levels, reinforcing the primary bullish trend However, the index is facing supply near the 25,350–25,400 zone, where repeated rejections are visible, indicating a strong overhead resistance area.
  • On the daily chart, Nifty has recently corrected from higher levels and is currently hovering near the 25,200–25,300 support zone, which aligns with the 10–20 MA cloud and the 50-day moving average.
  • On the daily chart, Nifty has recently corrected from higher levels and is currently hovering near the 25,200–25,300 support zone, which aligns with the 10–20 MA cloud and the 50-day moving average.
  • This zone is acting as immediate support and is critical to maintain short-term stability. A sustained hold above this area keeps the short term bias neutral to mildly positive. The next lower support is placed near 24,950–25,000, which coincides with a broader demand zone and the rising 200-day moving average, making it an important medium-term support.
  •  From an indicator perspective, RSI on the daily chart is hovering near the mid-range, reflecting indecision and lack of strong momentum.
  •  MACD is marginally negative and below the signal line, suggesting short-term weakness, though not a strong bearish trend.
  • ADX remains low, confirming that the current phase is more of consolidation rather than a directional move.
  •  Conclusion:
    Overall, Nifty remains in a broader uptrend on the weekly timeframe, but the daily structure indicates consolidation within adefined range. As long as the index holds above the 25,200–25,000 support zone, the larger trend remains intact. A fresh directional move is likely only on a decisive breakout above 25,400–25,750 with volume, while a breakdown below 25,000 may lead to a deeper corrective phase toward the next demand zone.

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Weekly Report: 25th Jan 2026

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equity markets witnessed a sharp sell off during the week, dragged down by profit booking, heightened geopolitical tensions, a weak rupee and mixed Q3 earnings, with the Nifty slipping below 25,100 and broader markets underperforming. Sentiment remained firmly risk off as the rupee hit a fresh record low of 91.99 against the US dollar, while earnings pressure from the implementation of the new labour code further weighed on heavyweight stocks across IT, banking and energy. Globally,
markets grappled with slowing growth signals, as softer inflation in Japan, weaker GDP prints in South Korea, and decelerating growth in China reinforced concerns around global demand, even as Eurozone inflation moved closer to target. Despite supportive medium term outlook cues such as the IMF upgrading India’s FY26 growth forecast, near term volatility dominated market action through the week.

Week Ahead

Indian equities head into the late January week amid elevated volatility, with sentiment shaped by persistent FII outflows, a weak rupee and mixed global cues, even as bouts of value buying and select defensive pockets offer limited support. Domestically, focus will be on December industrial production, fiscal deficit trends and weekly forex reserves data, especially with the Union Budget approaching and rate expectations in play. Globally, investors will track US macro signals including the Fed’s policy
decision, labour market data, trade balance and producer inflation, alongside crude inventory trends, while China’s industrial profits data will offer cues on demand conditions. Overall, markets are likely to remain sensitive to global risk sentiment and macro developments, keeping volatility elevated in the near term.

Technical Overview
  •  The Nifty 50 index remains firmly in a short-term downtrend, characterized by a persistent sequence of lower highs and lower lows on the daily timeframe. The index has failed to arrest the selling momentum, closing the week with a negative bias.
  • On the weekly chart, the candle formation is Bearish. Contrary to a reversal signal, the substantial real body of the red candleindicates
  • that sellers remained dominant throughout the week, selling into every intraday recovery attempt. The close near the lower quartile of the week’s range confirms that the bears are still in control.
  • The selling legs are accompanied by steady volume, while the recovery attempts lack significant participation. This volume divergence reinforces the validity of the downtrend.
  •  The index has broken the 200-day moving average. While there was a minor bounce from this level, the inability to produce a strong bullish close suggests this long-term support is under severe threat. A decisive close below this average would be a major breakdown signal.
  • The immediate critical support is at 24,800 -24,850. A sustained breakdown below this level confirms the violation of the 200-DMA, potentially accelerating the slide towards the next major demand zone at 24,500.
  • The market texture is sell on rise. Every bounce is being met with fresh supply, creating a waterfall effect on the daily chart. The breakdown of the previous swing support at 25,500 has now converted that zone into a formidable resistance ceiling. Only a decisive close above this supply zone would negate the bearish thesis and signal a potential pause in the current downtrend.
  •  The daily RSI remains in the bearish territory and is trending downwards. It has not yet shown a decisive bullish divergence or a hook that would suggest a bottom is in place, implying that momentum remains with the sellers
  •  The daily MACD is in a confirmed sell mode, with the signal lines expanding downwards below the zero line. The histogram shows consistent selling pressure without any immediate signs of exhaustion or convergence.
  •  Conclusion:TheNifty 50 is in a corrective downtrend, with the weekly chart displaying a bearish continuation structure rather than a reversal. The index is precariously perched at the 200-day moving average, the last line of defense for the long-term bulls. The failure to form a convincing reversal candle suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. The strategy remains sell on rise unless the index can reclaim the breakdown zone of 25,500. 

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Weekly Report: 19th Jan 2026

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The Indian equity market ended the week sideways, reflecting a mix of corporate earnings, economic data, and political developments. Early trends from the Maharashtra municipal elections favoring the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance provided a boost to investor sentiment. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, FII outflows, US-Iran conflicts, and uncertainties around the India-US trade deal kept the market range-bound, resulting in a week of cautious consolidation. In the week ended on Friday, 16 January 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex shed 5.89 points or 0.01% to settle at 83,570.35. The Nifty 50 index rose 0.04 points or 11.05% to settle at 25,694.35. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.15% to close at 46,186.05. The BSE Small-Cap declined 0.45% to end at 49,701.91. India’s consumer inflation rose to 1.33% in December, accelerating from 0.71% in the prior month. The rise in consumer inflation was mainly driven by food prices, while fuel and light inflation rate eased in December.

Week Ahead

Indian equities face a mixed start to the week of 17 – 23 Jan 2026, with recent macro cues underlining a cautious tone. Persistent foreign institutional selling emerged as a drag, offsetting domestic investor support and keeping valuations under pressure as volatility persisted. Investors would continue to track the slew of data release scheduled for released next week. The focus would also remain on corporate announcements as the latest earnings season enters its next leg in the coming week. In India, the M3 Money Supply figures for the week ended on January 09 would be made public on Wednesday (21 January 2026). The Money Supply M3 in India increased to 322144.23 INR Billion in the week ending December 31 from 246833.33 INR Billion two weeks before. In China, the GDP Growth Rate for the fourth quarter would be announced on Monday (19 January 2026). In the United States, the API Crude Oil Stock Change for the week ended on January 16 would be unveiled on Wednesday (21 January 2026) .

Technical Overview
  • The Nifty has witnessed a sharp corrective move from the 26,250–26,300 resistance zone, forming a sequence of lower highs on the intraday charts, indicating short-term supply dominance and profit booking at higher levels.
  • Price has retraced back into the 25,650–25,750 demand/supply zone, which earlier served as a strong breakout base, suggesting the market is now testing the strength of buyers.
  • On the daily timeframe, the index has slipped below the short-term EMA cloud and briefly undercut the 50-DMA, highlighting a loss of momentum and a shift into consolidation-to-weak structure.
  • However, price is still holding well above the rising 200-DMA, keeping the broader trend intact and preventing any major trend breakdown at this stage.
  • Candles near support are showing smaller real bodies and long lower wicks, reflecting buying interest emerging on declines rather than aggressive distribution.
  • Intraday structure shows range compression between 25,650–25,900, indicating equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
  • A sustained hold above the 25,650–25,700 base can lead to a technical pullback bounce toward 25,950–26,100, while a decisive breakdown below 25,500 would expose the index toward the 25,300–25,400 demand pocket.
  • Momentum indicators have cooled, with MACD in mild negative territory but flattening, suggesting selling pressure is slowing rather than accelerating.
  • Volumes during the decline were elevated initially but have started to normalize near support, indicating that panic selling is reducing and the market is attempting to stabilize.
  • Conclusion:   The overall structure remains short-term corrective within a larger uptrend. As long as Nifty holds above the 25,600–25,650 support  zone, the bias remains range-bound to mildly positive with scope for a recovery move. A sustained breakout above 26,100–26,300 will be required to re-ignite upside momentum and resume the primary uptrend. Until then, expect volatile consolidation with stock-specific opportunities rather than broad trending moves.

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Weekly Report: 12th Jan 2026

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Domestic equity benchmarks ended the week with steep losses, as all trading sessions closed in the red amid a mix of global and domestic headwinds. Investor sentiment weakened due to escalating geopolitical tensions following U.S. military action in Venezuela, renewed concerns over potential U.S. tariffs, and continued foreign institutional investor outflows. Further adding to market volatility was a mixed set of Q3 earnings and corporate updates, which failed to offer clear directional cues. Consequently, investors remained cautious, resulting in broad-based selling and sustained losses throughout the week. For the week ended Friday, 09 January 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 2,185.77 points, or 2.55%, to close at 83,576.24, while the Nifty 50 fell 645.25 points, or 2.45%, to settle at 25,683.30.

 

Week Ahead

The domestic equity market may attempt a rebound in the coming week, aided by bargain buying after the recent sharp correction. However, gains are likely to be capped as global trade concerns, political uncertainty from Washington, and continued foreign fund outflows weigh on investor sentiment. A key catalyst will be the much-awaited US Supreme Court verdict on the legality of tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump. On the domestic macro front, markets will navigate a busy economic calendar. December CPI inflation data, scheduled for release on Monday, January 12, will be closely monitored for trends in food prices and their implications for the Reserve Bank of India’s policy stance. On Thursday, January 15, attention will turn to December trade data, including exports, imports, and the trade balance. Globally, the spotlight will be on US December inflation data due on Tuesday, January 13, with both headline and core CPI readings closely watched for signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.

Technical Overview
  • The Nifty 50 index has witnessed a sharp bearish reversal this week, effectively negating the positive implications of last week’s Hammer pattern. The index faced aggressive selling pressure at higher levels and surrendered all recent gains to close near 25,703.
  • On the weekly chart, the index has formed a massive Bearish Engulfing Candle. The body of this red candle completely covers the previous week’s price action. This is a potent bearish signal, indicating that the bears have overwhelmed the bulls and regained total control of the trend.
  • The index has decisively sliced through the 50-day moving average, which was acting as dynamic support around 25,850. A close below this key short-term average signifies a shift in the intermediate trend from bullish to bearish.
  • The selling leg this week was accompanied by above-average volume, particularly on the large red candle days. This distribution volume suggests that institutional players are offloading positions rather than accumulating.
  • The immediate make-or-break level is 25,600 – 25,500. A sustained close below this zone will trigger a fresh leg of selling, targeting the 25,200 – 25,300 zone.
  • The previous support has now flipped to resistance at 25,850 – 25,900. A reclaim of this level is the first requirement to stabilize the market, but meaningful strength will only return above 26,150.
  • The daily RSI has broken down from the 50-support zone and is actively trending downwards, currently near 40. This indicates gaining bearish momentum and suggests the path of least resistance is now to the downside.
  • The daily MACD histogram has expanded deeply into the negative territory, and the signal lines are diverging downwards. This acceleration confirms strong selling interest and a lack of immediate buying support.
  • Parabolic SAR dots remain firmly above the price candles on the daily chart, reinforcing the positional “sell” signal. The gap between the price and the dots is widening, which often accompanies strong trend moves.
  • Conclusion:
    The Nifty 50 has suffered a significant technical breakdown this week. The formation of a Bearish Engulfing candle on the weekly chart and the violation of the 50-day moving average confirm that the short-term trend has turned negative. The failure of last week’s Hammer support has trapped bulls, shifting the market texture to “Sell on Rise.” The index is now precariously perched at the final swing support of 25,600. A breakdown here opens the floodgates for a deeper correction towards the 25,300 zones.

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Weekly Report: 05th Jan 2026

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equities ended the week on a strong note, with the Nifty 50 scaling a fresh record above 26,300 and the Sensex posting solid gains, supported by upbeat Q3 business updates, robust December auto sales and improving macro indicators. Confidence was further lifted by a sharp rebound in industrial activity, with IIP growth accelerating to 6.7% YoY in November, led by manufacturing and mining, alongside a modest pickup in GST collections in December, reflecting steady underlying economic momentum despite slower domestic consumption growth. Broader markets outperformed the benchmarks, driven by buying interest in auto and cyclical stocks, even as softer PMI readings pointed to some moderation in manufacturing momentum toward the end of the year.

Week Ahead

Indian equities begin 2026 on a resilient footing, supported by strong domestic macro cues and leadership from autos and metals, with the Nifty at record highs underpinning improving Q3 earnings expectations, even as the rupee continues to hover near 89.97 against the US dollar, highlighting persistent external pressures. The focus domestically will be on final HSBC Services and Composite PMI prints for December, along with liquidity indicators such as money supply, bank credit, deposits and forex reserves, to gauge the durability of growth momentum. Globally, investor sentiment will be shaped by key data releases across major economies, including US ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, labour market indicators and non-farm payrolls, China’s PMI, inflation and FX reserves data, and crude inventory trends, with markets likely to balance optimism around risk appetite against evolving macro and currency dynamics.

Technical Overview
  • Nifty continues to trade in a strong bullish structure, holding firmly above the 26,000–26,050 demand zone, which has repeatedly acted as a reliable support area
  • The index has once again moved back toward the upper resistance band near 26,300–26,350, indicating sustained buying interest on dips rather than aggressive profit booking.
  • The 26,000–26,050 zone has acted as a strong price floor, with multiple rejections from lower levels, confirming demand dominance.
  • On the upside, 26,300–26,350 remains a clear supply zone, where price has paused multiple times. Importantly, pullbacks are shallow and overlapping, which is a classic sign of trend continuation consolidation.
  • Overall price behaviour suggests balance shifting in favour of buyers. A decisive daily close above 26,350 would signal expansion from consolidation and trigger the next leg of the up-move
  • Until then, the structure remains bullish but range-bound, with higher probability of an upside breakout than a breakdown.
  • Momentum indicators support the constructive setup. RSI has cooled off from overbought levels and is hovering around the 60 zone, suggesting that excess froth has been removed without damaging trend strength. This creates room for the next leg of the rally.
  • The MACD histogram has flattened, reflecting consolidation, but the signal lines remain in positive territory with no bearish crossover, confirming that momentum remains supportive of the broader uptrend.
  • Conclusion:
    The overall setup remains bullish with a consolidation bias. As long as Nifty holds above 26,000 on a closing basis, the index is likely to continue range-to-upward movement. A decisive breakout and sustained close above 26,350 with volume could open the door for the next leg higher in the coming sessions.

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Weekly Report: 29th Dec 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Indian equities ended the holiday-shortened week with modest gains, despite bouts of range-bound and volatile trading amid year end caution. Benchmark indices posted marginal upticks, supported by selective buying even as low volumes, intermittent profit booking and the absence of strong domestic triggers limited upside. Broader markets outperformed, with small-cap indices delivering the strongest gains for the week, while mid-caps ended largely flat to mildly positive, reflecting continued stockspecific interest. Sectoral trends were divergent, with metals and IT emerging as key outperformers, supported by a global commodity rally and selective buying, while consumer durables, capital goods, realty and healthcare witnessed sharper corrections. Globally, mixed cues and uncertainty around growth and policy outlooks kept risk appetite measured, resulting in subdued but resilient market participation into the close of the week.

Week Ahead

Indian equities head into a holiday-heavy and data-light week on a cautious footing, with low volumes and year-end positioning likely to keep markets largely range-bound. In the absence of key domestic macro releases, market direction will be driven primarily by global cues, FII flows, currency movement and stock-specific developments. Globally, attention will centre on the US FOMC meeting minutes, which will be scrutinised for clarity on the Fed’s policy stance and the timing of future rate cuts. US crude oil inventory data will be closely tracked for cues on energy prices and commodity-linked stocks, while US initial jobless claims will provide insight into labour market conditions. From Asia, China’s Manufacturing PMI will be a key indicator of growth momentum and demand trends, with implications for regional sentiment. Additionally, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will offer a broader read on global manufacturing activity. Multiple market holidays across the US, China, Japan and Europe are expected to thin participation, keeping volatility contained but directional conviction limited through the week.

Technical Overview
  • The Nifty 50 index has formed a classic hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. This candle is characterized by a small real body and a long lower shadow, indicating that while the index faced sharp selling pressure during the week testing lows near 25,700, it managed to recover and close near its opening level.
  • This structure signifies strong price rejection at lower levels. The bears attempted to drag the market down, but significant institutional demand emerged at the support zone, forcing the price back up. It represents a defence of the trend rather than an aggressive expansion.
  • The daily chart confirms that the recovery was sharp but the close remained relatively flat compared to the open. The index is effectively essentially consolidating within the range of the previous week’s volatility. The immediate hurdle is the weekly high near 26,160. A sustained close above this level confirms the hammer pattern and opens the path for a retest of the all-time high at 26,325.
  • The lower wick on the weekly candle confirms that the 26,000 – 25,750 zone is a robust demand floor. The market has now established this level as a critical base for the near term.
  • The volume has been average, supporting the view that this is a consolidation and accumulation phase. We are seeing a lack of aggressive selling rather than a surge of aggressive buying at the highs.
  • The daily RSI has stabilized near the 50-55 zone. It is neither overbought nor oversold, indicating that momentum is neutral to slightly positive. The indicator is resetting itself for the next directional move.
  • The daily MACD remains in a sell mode, but the histogram contraction is visible. This suggests that the downside momentum is fading, but the bulls have not yet generated enough power for a fresh crossover buy signal.
  • The Parabolic SAR dots remain above the price candles on the daily chart, acting as immediate overhead resistance. A close above 26,160 is needed to flip this indicator to bullish.

The Nifty 50 has formed a Bullish Hammer on the weekly chart, signaling a potential bottoming out of the short-term correction. The
small real body indicates that while the selling has stopped, buyers are still cautious at higher levels. The market has successfully defended the 25,750 support, validating the “buy on dips” texture. However, unlike a long-bodied breakout candle, this pattern calls for
confirmation. A follow-up move above 26,160 is essential to convert this defence into a new offence towards the all-time highs.

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