Weekly Trend Report
- 04th October, 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equities ended the week sharply lower as sustained selling pressure across benchmark stocks weighed on sentiment amid elevated global yields, inflation concerns and higher energy prices. Domestic macros remained supportive, with industrial production growth accelerating to 8.0% YoY in August from 7.4% in July, led by stronger manufacturing and electricity output, although mining activity contracted. Globally, US Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year yield rising to 5.3%, its highest level since June 2007, while the 30-year yield reached 5.6%, its highest since June 2002, amid persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty around the Fed’s policy path. US job openings declined in August, while consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014, pointing to some moderation in economic momentum. Overall, elevated bond yields, inflationary pressures, higher energy prices and weak global cues kept risk appetite subdued, with the Sensex and Nifty declining 2.3% and 2.8%, respectively.
Week Ahead
Indian equities enter the week with attention shifting to the RBI’s monetary policy decision, amid elevated inflation and global rate pressures. The recent easing in energy-market tensions offers some relief, with crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz recovering toward pre-war levels, although geopolitical risks continue to keep the energy risk premium elevated. Domestically, focus will be on the final HSBC Services and Composite PMIs for September on Tuesday and the RBI policy decision on Wednesday, with markets tracking the central bank’s assessment of inflation, growth and liquidity conditions. Globally, the US ISM Services PMI on Monday, FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and initial jobless claims on Thursday will be key triggers for the US rate outlook, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday will provide cues on consumer confidence. China’s foreign exchange reserves will also be released on Wednesday. With the latest US jobs report already released, markets will focus on these indicators for further signals on economic momentum and the Fed’s policy path.
Technical Overview
- Nifty 50 closed at 22,421.95, down 198.50 points -0.88%, after opening at 22,543.70. The index remained under pressure throughout the session and closed near the day’s low of 22,217.30, indicating strong selling pressure and weak closing momentum.
- The recent price action has turned clearly bearish as Nifty has broken below the 23,070–23,200 support zone and continues to form lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. The index is now approaching an important long-term demand/support area around 22,200–22,350.
- On the daily chart, Nifty has decisively slipped below the 23,352–23,480 zone, which had acted as an important consolidation and support area. The breakdown from this range has accelerated the downside momentum and indicates that sellers are currently dominating the short-term structure.
- The EMA cloud has turned bearish, with price trading well below the short-term moving averages. The cloud is also sloping downward, confirming that the recent decline is not merely a one-day correction but part of a developing bearish price structure.
- The weekly candle shows strong bearish expansion, suggesting that selling pressure has increased at the higher levels and that the index is moving towards the next major support zone.
- RSI has slipped into the lower zone, with daily RSI around the low-20s and weekly RSI near the low-30s. This indicates oversold conditions in the short term, which can lead to a technical bounce; however, oversold readings alone should not be treated as a reversal signal until price action confirms it.
- On the upside, 22,780–22,850 is the immediate resistance zone, followed by 23,070–23,200. A sustained move above 23,200 would be the first indication that selling pressure is easing. Stronger confirmation would come only above 23,480–23,700, where the previous breakdown and supply zone are located.
- Conclusion: The latest price action indicates that Nifty is undergoing a strong short-term bearish phase, with the index breaking below important support zones and maintaining a lower-high/lower-low structure. The sharp weekly decline, negative MACD and weak moving-average setup continue to favour the bears. For the coming sessions, 22,200-22,350 remains the immediate make-or-break support zone. A hold above this area can trigger a technical pullback towards 22,780-23,070, while a decisive breakdown below 22,200 can extend the correction further. On the upside, 23,200-23,480 will act as a major supply zone and Nifty needs to reclaim this area to show meaningful improvement in the structure.
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