Weekly Trend Report
- 26th September, 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equities ended the week lower, weighed down by elevated US Treasury yields, persistent inflation concerns and cautious global sentiment. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 5.22%, while the 30-year yield touched 5.50%, reflecting concerns that stronger-than-expected US economic activity and higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated and delay monetary easing. Domestically, S&P Global Ratings raised its FY27 real GDP growth forecast for India to 7% from 6.6%, supported by stronger industrial activity, healthy consumption, robust goods exports and higher government investment. However, the sharp sell-off towards the end of the week amid rising global yields kept investor sentiment cautious. Overall, the Sensex declined 0.54%, while the Nifty 50 fell 1.12% during the week.
Week Ahead
Indian markets are likely to remain volatile in the week ahead as investors track global energy prices, US-Iran diplomatic developments and key macroeconomic data. Key domestic triggers will include August industrial production, September Manufacturing PMI, fiscal deficit, external debt and forex reserves data, which will provide cues on the pace of economic activity and external liquidity. Globally, focus will remain on China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, US JOLTS job openings, Q2 GDP, Core PCE inflation, ISM Manufacturing PMI and September employment data. With crude prices remaining sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz and global yields elevated, investor sentiment is likely to remain cautious, with energy prices, US inflation and labour-market data continuing to influence market direction.
Technical Overview
- Nifty 50 closed at 23,140.50, gaining 77.40 points +0.34% on the day. Despite the positive close, the broader price structure remains weak as the index continues to trade below key short- and medium-term moving averages and is facing selling pressure near the recent breakdown zone.
- Recent price action remains the key concern. After failing to sustain above the 23,789–24,000 zone, Nifty started forming lower highs and lower lows. The selling pressure intensified during September, with the index breaking below the 23,483 support and subsequently slipping toward the 23,070–23,000 region.
- The latest session showed a small recovery from the day’s low of 23,020.95, indicating some buying interest around the 23,000–23,070 support zone. However, the recovery lacks a strong bullish follow-through so far. The index is still trading below the immediate resistance levels, keeping the short-term structure cautious.
- The 23,070 level is now an important near-term support. Price has repeatedly reacted around this region, and the current consolidation near 23,100–23,200 suggests that buyers are attempting to defend this zone. A decisive daily close below 23,070 would weaken the structure further and could open the way toward the broader 22,500–22,600 support zone.
- On the upside, 23,229 is the first immediate hurdle, followed by the 23,483–23,550 zone. This area is particularly important because it represents the previous support/consolidation zone that has now turned into resistance. A sustained move above 23,483 would be the first indication that selling pressure is easing.
- Above that, 23,789–24,000 remains a major supply zone. Until Nifty reclaims this region, the recent decline should be treated as a bearish correction rather than a confirmed trend reversal. A move above 24,000 would significantly improve the short-term technical structure.
- Moving-average structure continues to remain negative. Nifty is trading below the short-term EMA cluster and the 20/50 EMA region around 23,900–24,000. The 200-EMA sits near 24,417, well above the current market price. This indicates that the index remains under medium-term pressure.
- Conclusion:The latest price action indicates that Nifty remains in a short-term bearish phase, with the index consolidating near the 23,000–23,200 support zone after a sharp decline. The immediate battle is between 23,070 support and 23,229 resistance. Below 23,070: weakness can extend toward 22,800–22,600, with 22,586 acting as the major weekly 200-EMA support. Above 23,229: Nifty can attempt a recovery toward 23,483–23,550, followed by 23,789–24,000. Overall, 23,483 remains the key level for trend improvement, while sustained trading below this zone keeps the bias cautious-to-negative. A decisive break below 23,070 would confirm further downside pressure, whereas a strong reclaim of 23,483 with volume would provide the first meaningful sign of a short-term reversal.
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