Weekly Trend Report
- 17th October, 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equity markets ended the week on a positive note, with the Sensex and Nifty gaining 3.1% and 2.8%, respectively, supported by the IMF’s upward revision of India’s GDP growth forecast to 7.0% for both FY27 and FY28, reflecting resilient domestic demand and strong services activity. However, inflationary pressures remained a concern, with WPI inflation rising to 11.4% in September from 9.9% in August, while CPI inflation increased to 5.5% from 4.8%. The RBI introduced measures to address the foreign exchange requirements of state-owned oil marketing companies, tightened forex derivative regulations and increased the minimum daily CRR maintenance requirement for banks to 99% from 90%. Among global developments, stronger-than-expected economic growth in the UK and Singapore provided support, while elevated US inflation, with CPI rising to 3.7% YoY, and concerns over a global technology sell-off weighed on sentiment. Overall, positive domestic growth expectations and strong buying in key benchmark stocks supported market gains despite rising inflationary concerns and mixed global cues.
Week Ahead
Domestic markets are expected to track corporate earnings, key economic data and global cues next week. September infrastructure output, October PMI data and RBI forex reserves will be key domestic indicators. Major earnings from HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Infosys and Tata Motors will remain in focus. Globally, China’s GDP and economic data, US housing indicators and Japan’s inflation and trade data will be closely monitored. Crude oil prices, FII flows, rupee movements and geopolitical developments could drive market volatility. Markets will remain closed on 20 October on account of Dussehra.
Technical Overview
- Nifty has rebounded strongly from the 22,180–22,300 support zone. The latest daily candle closed at 23,146.15, indicating continued buying interest after the recent sell-off.
- The index has moved back above the 22,780–23,070 zone and is now testing the 23,200–23,350 resistance area. A sustained close above 23,350 would strengthen the recovery and may open the way toward 23,550.
- Despite the recent bounce, price remains below the falling short-term EMA cloud and the key moving averages. The broader trend therefore remains weak until Nifty reclaims higher resistance levels.
- Daily MACD is turning upward, with the histogram recovering into positive territory. This supports the current rebound, although the MACD lines remain below zero, so a complete trend reversal is not yet confirmed.
- The weekly chart shows a strong recovery from lower levels, but Nifty is still below the 23,350–23,550 resistance band and the falling moving average near 24,400. Follow-through buying is needed to improve the broader structure.
- Daily volume is around 391.56M, above the displayed reference of 341.74M, indicating participation in the recovery. Sustained volume on a breakout would provide stronger confirmation.
- Conclusion: Nifty is showing a strong short-term recovery after defending the 22,180–22,300 demand zone. The immediate focus is on whether it can sustain above 23,070 and break through 23,350. A decisive breakout could extend the recovery toward 23,550, while rejection near resistance may lead to consolidation or a retest of 22,780. The broader trend remains bearish until higher resistance zones are reclaimed.
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