Weekly Trend Report
- 12th October, 2026
Week Gone By
The key equity benchmarks ended the week with modest gains, snapping an eight-week losing streak, supported by easing crude oil prices and upbeat business updates. The RBI’s decision to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and shift its policy stance to calibrated tightening added to concerns over borrowing costs, although the upward revision in the FY27 GDP growth forecast provided a positive signal on economic resilience. The central bank said the Indian economy remained resilient, with real GDP growth at 7.8% in Q1 FY27, supported by private consumption, fixed investment, a rebound in merchandise exports and sustained services exports. The RBI raised its FY27 real GDP growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.7% projected in its August policy review. It also revised upward its Q2 and Q3 growth projections to 7.2% and 6.9%, respectively, from 6.4% and 6.5% earlier.
Week Ahead
Domestic equities are likely to remain volatile in the coming week as investors assess crude oil price movements, foreign fund flows, inflation data and the September-quarter earnings season. The market’s rebound on Friday offered some relief after a prolonged losing streak, but the sustainability of the recovery will depend on global cues, the outlook for interest rates and corporate earnings. Crude oil prices will remain a key driver. Brent crude for December 2026 delivery fell to $102.94 a barrel on Friday, although prices remained elevated amid uncertainty surrounding US-Iran tensions. The Q2 FY27 earnings season will gather momentum next week. Avenue Supermarts (DMart) is scheduled to announce its results on 10 October, followed by HCL Technologies on 12 October and Hero MotoCorp on 13 October. Tech Mahindra, Wipro and Nestle India are scheduled to report their results on 15 October. Investors will assess revenue growth, margins and management commentary for insights into consumer demand, IT spending and the broader corporate earnings outlook.
Technical Overview
- Nifty 50 closed at 22,520.45, up 288.65 points +1.30%, recovering sharply from the intraday low of 22,294.75. The latest session shows buying interest emerging near lower levels after the recent steep decline. However, the index is still trading below important breakdown levels, so the recovery needs follow-through confirmation.
- The most important recent price action is the sharp sell-off from the 24,200–24,300 region, followed by a breakdown below 23,070 and 22,780. The index has now entered the major 22,200–22,350 support zone, where buyers have attempted to defend the market. Friday’s strong recovery suggests short-covering and buying interest near support, but a confirmed trend reversal is not yet visible.
- On the daily chart, Nifty has formed a strong recovery candle after testing the lower support area near 22,180–22,200. The close at 22,520 indicates that buyers managed to recover from the day’s weakness. However, the index remains below the bearish EMA cloud, keeping the near-term structure under pressure.
- The 22,200–22,250 zone remains the immediate demand area. If this zone holds, Nifty could extend its relief rally towards 22,780–23,070. On the downside, a decisive break below 22,180 would weaken the recovery and could expose the index to further selling pressure.
- On the weekly chart, Nifty continues to show a bearish structure, with price trading below the short-term moving averages and the EMA cloud sloping downward. The recent breakdown from the 23,070–23,350 region confirms that sellers remain dominant on the broader swing structure. The latest recovery is positive, but the index needs to reclaim the previous breakdown zone to improve the outlook.
- Momentum remains weak despite Friday’s bounce. MACD on both daily and weekly charts remains below the zero line, with the bearish setup still intact. This suggests that the current rise may be a relief rally rather than the beginning of a sustained uptrend.
- Conclusion: Nifty is showing an initial recovery from the 22,200–22,350 demand zone after an extended decline. The latest strong green candle indicates buying interest at lower levels, but the broader price structure remains bearish until the index reclaims its immediate resistance zones. For the coming sessions, 22,780–23,070 is the first important resistance zone, followed by 23,350. Sustained buying above these levels would improve the recovery structure. Conversely, a breakdown below 22,180 would signal renewed weakness.
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