Weekly Trend Report
- 21st April 2025
Week Gone By
The Indian stock market ended the truncated week on a strong note, with key indices rising sharply. This upbeat trend was largely supported by a drop in both retail and wholesale inflation — the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 3.34% in March 2025, and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) dropped to 2.05%. Lower inflation often signals that the Reserve Bank of India may keep interest rates steady, which is generally good news for both businesses and investors. Adding to the positive sentiment, several big companies announced better-than-expected quarterly earnings, reinforcing confidence in India’s economic recovery.
On the flip side, India’s trade deficit widened significantly to $21.54 billion in March, compared to $15.6 billion a year ago. This was due to a sharp 11.4% rise in imports, which touched a record $63.51 billion for the month — showing strong demand, possibly for raw materials or capital goods. Meanwhile, global cues were mixed but mostly positive. In the Eurozone, inflation eased to 2.2% in March, offering relief to European markets. In Japan, exports grew for the sixth straight month by 3.9% year-on-year, and imports rose by 2%, resulting in a trade surplus of 544.1 billion yen — a sign of economic resilience in Asia.
Together, the domestic and global data gave investors enough reasons to stay optimistic, pushing the markets higher despite the short trading week.
Week Ahead
Investor sentiment on Dalal Street remains positive, backed by India’s strong economic fundamentals and a relatively stable global backdrop for now. With Q4FY25 earnings season in full swing, corporate results are expected to guide market direction. Strong numbers could push markets higher, while weak performance may lead to short-term corrections. However, global uncertainty continues, especially due to ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and China, which could trigger volatility. Despite this, Indian markets have stayed steady and resilient. Key domestic data, such as HSBC’s Flash Composite, Manufacturing, and Services PMI for April, will be released on Wednesday, 23 April, offering insights into the health of the Indian economy. Globally, US Durable Goods Orders and Existing Home Sales data for March are due on Thursday, 24 April. Japan will also release its Jibun Bank Flash PMIs on Wednesday. These updates will be closely watched and could influence short-term market movements.
Technical Overview
- Nifty rallied sharply and ended the session near the 23,850 mark, clocking gains of over 400 points — a strong positive move after recent consolidation.
- The index has approached a key level around 23,900, which has earlier seen supply. Holding above this would be crucial for continuation of the uptrend.
- Momentum has clearly shifted in favour of the bulls, with recent price action breaking above the short-term consolidation range convincingly.
- A short-term trend reversal is visible with the price moving above key moving averages, and the slope of these averages turning upward, supporting the upward bias.
- Indicators show buying strength picking up — the directional movement index signals that positive momentum has overtaken selling pressure.
- RSI is steadily rising but not in overbought territory yet, suggesting the market still has room to move higher before any signs of fatigue.
- The MACD histogram has turned positive again, indicating fresh bullish momentum after a period of mild weakness.
To view the detailed report click here to Download
