Weekly Trend Report
- 09th Jun 2025
Week Gone By
The key equity indices posted significant gains this week, driven by the Reserve Bank of India’s surprise 50 basis points rate cut and a shift in its monetary policy stance from accommodative to neutral. The easing inflation outlook and strong Q4 FY25 GDP growth of 7.4% boosted investor confidence, signaling a stable and supportive economic environment. Broader markets outperformed, reflecting renewed optimism around domestic demand and lower borrowing costs. Despite global headwinds and geopolitical concerns, sentiment remained upbeat as macroeconomic indicators pointed toward a healthy growth-inflation balance. In US, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.5 in May from 48.7, marking the lowest reading since November. This marks the third straight month of contraction, with underlying components still signaling broad-based weakness.
Week Ahead
Market heads into the new week riding high on the RBI’s unexpectedly bold move, a 50 basis point rate cut that landed like confetti on Dalal Street. While the surprise CRR cut added extra cheer, the central bank’s lower inflation forecast (now 3.7% for the year, down from 4%) and steady confidence in growth have further sweetened the mood. The move is being read as front-loading of policy action, even though the stance turned a tad more cautious. Traders are already adjusting their lenses, rotating into rate-sensitive names like banks, NBFCs, and autos, while themes like railways continue to chug along with investor interest. India’s retail inflation data for May will release on Thursday, 12 June 2025. The annual inflation rate in India fell to 3.16% in April of 2025, the lowest since July of 2019, from 3.34% in the previous month. On the global cues, China’s inflation and trade data for May will release on Monday, 9 June 2025. US inflation data for May will release on Wednesday, 11 June 2025. The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 2.3% in April 2025, the lowest since February 2021, from 2.4% in March.
Technical Overview
- NIFTY closed at 25,003.05, gaining 252.15 points (+1.02%), and has convincingly crossed above the psychological resistance of25,000, showing strong bullish sentiment.
- Though Friday’s volume was lower than the recent high-volume sessions, the rise was supported by a positive structure, suggesting that buying interest remains intact.
- The RSI is at 60.03, comfortably placed in bullish territory, indicating sustained strength. There is room for the RSI to move higher without being overbought.
- The ADX stands at 29.49 with +DI above -DI, reaffirming that trend momentum is improving and bulls have an upper hand.
- MACD histogram continues to print green bars, showing sustained positive momentum. No divergence signs yet, keeping the bullish structure healthy.
- Price action remains above the 20-EMA and Ichimoku cloud, and the recent pullbacks are finding support near 24,550–24,600 zone, which is also near the rising average levels.
- The next resistance zones are seen at 25,350 and 25,500, which align with the earlier consolidation top and Fibonacci extensions.
- Immediate support is now placed at 24,700, followed by a broader base at 24,550–24,600.
- NIFTY has finally managed to reclaim the 25,000 mark, which was a key hurdle in the recent sessions. For the coming week, if NIFTY sustains above 25,000, we may see aggressive call unwinding, leading to further upside toward 25,350–25,500. Support for the index is now firmly placed at the 24,700 zone. A close below that may pause the upward momentum.
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