Weekly Trend Report
- 03rd Nov 2025
Week Gone By
The key domestic indices closed with moderate losses, weighed down by weak global cues. Investor sentiment remained cautious amid continued uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade negotiations and the US Federal Reserve’s policy direction. However, market participants are now shifting their focus to the upcoming Q2 earnings season. India’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $4.496 billion to $702.28 billion for the week ending October 17, while the country’s reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declined by $30 million. Meanwhile, India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew 4% in September 2025 compared to the same month last year. Globally, US President Donald Trump described his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30, 2025, as a “roaring success.” He announced that the US would reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, while China agreed to resume exports of rare earth elements and purchase American soybeans. Trump also mentioned that discussions covered the potential export of advanced computer chips to China, with Nvidia expected to hold further talks with Chinese officials, adding that a trade deal could be signed “very soon.”
Week Ahead
The Indian equity market is expected to remain firm but may experience bouts of volatility amid key global and domestic data releases. The US Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% on October 29, 2025. However, Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks tempered expectations of another rate cut in December, leading to a mild global pullback overnight. On the domestic front, the final reading of the HSBC Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will be released on Tuesday, November 4. The M3 Money Supply data for the week ended October 17 will be published on Wednesday, November 5, followed by the final readings of the HSBC Services PMI and HSBC Composite PMI for October 2025 on Thursday, November 6. Globally, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for October 2025 is scheduled for release on Monday, November 3, while the JOLTs Job Openings data for September will be announced on Tuesday, November 4. In China, the Balance of Trade data for October 2025 will be released on Friday, November 7.
Technical Overview
The Nifty 50 has experienced a failed breakout, which is a significant bearish development in the short term. The index failed to hold above the previous swing high of 26,104 and has now broken down.
The price has decisively breached the previous Gap Zone. This area, is now expected to act as strong support, as seen clearly on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts.
This week’s candle on the weekly chart is a large bearish candle that has closed near its low, effectively engulfing the prior week’s indecisive Doji. This confirms a rejection from the highs and a strong shift in momentum.
Volume has expanded during this decline, particularly on the daily chart’s large red candle. This indicates strong profit booking conviction and validates the consolidation.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart has broken below the 60 levels, signaling a loss of bullish momentum and a shift to a bearish bias.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts is on a clear “sell” signal. The daily MACD has likely registered a bearish crossover, confirming the change in the short-term trend.
The Parabolic SAR has flipped above the price on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts, generating a “sell” signal and confirming the new downtrend.
The ADX (Average Directional Index) indicator is showing a high reading above 30. This reflects the strength of the prior uptrend. A high ADX value, combined with a sharp price reversal, warns that the new downtrend could also be very strong and volatile.
The next major support level to watch is the zone between 25,650 and 25,520, which aligns with the previous swing high and the descending trendline on chart.
