Weekly Trend Report
- 22th Feb 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equity benchmarks closed the week with moderate gains, as the Sensex and the Nifty advanced in four of the five trading sessions. Market sentiment stayed positive, supported by investor optimism around the AI summit held in India, which helped offset concerns over weak economic data and mixed global cues. During the week, investors closely tracked key economic data releases from the UK, the US, and India, as these indicators are expected to shape the market’s growth outlook in the coming sessions. India’s wholesale price index (WPI) inflation rose to 1.81% in January 2026 from 0.83% in December 2025. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI improved to 57.5 in February 2026 from 55.4 in January. On the global front, the US trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion in December from a revised $53.0 billion in November, while Japan’s economy expanded by a modest 0.1% on an annualized basis in the December quarter.
Week Ahead
Indian equities enter the coming week on a mixed, volatile note, following sharp swings in recent sessions. Sectoral divergence has continued to widen, with banking and capital goods stocks providing support, while IT stocks remained under pressure, reflecting ongoing rotation within the market. Amid elevated volatility and mixed global cues, investor preference may stay tilted toward large-cap stocks and themes with clear earnings visibility. Market participants are also likely to closely monitor currency movements and global risk sentiment for a clearer direction. On the domestic front, India’s GDP growth data for the quarter ended December is scheduled to be released on Friday, 27 February 2026. The government’s budget value for the period ending January 2026 will also be announced. Globally, China is set to release its one-year and five-year loan prime rates on Tuesday, 24 February 2026, alongside the US Employment Change Weekly data. Further, the US initial jobless claims data for the week ended February 21 will be released on Thursday, 26 February 2026.
Technical Overview
- The Nifty 50 index has witnessed a week of consolidation with a negative bias, failing to sustain higher levels and consistently surrendering intraday gains. The index faced persistent supply pressure to close near the week’s lows at 25,572.
- On the weekly chart, the index has formed a bearish candle with a prominent upper shadow and virtually no lower wick. This specific price action is a strong indication of overhead supply; it shows that while the bulls attempted a recovery rally early in the week, they were overwhelmed by aggressive institutional selling at higher levels.
- The daily chart reveals a classic compression phase. The index is trapped between the 200-day Moving Average and the 50-day Moving Average. The long upper wick on the weekly candle confirms a sharp and deliberate rejection exactly from this 50-DMA supply zone.
- On the lower timeframes, the market structure outlines a sideways consolidation block. However, the repeated rejections from the upper boundary near 25,750 reinforce a “Sell on Rise” texture within this tight range.
- The immediate support base is clustered around 25,300 – 25,450. A sustained breakdown below the 200-DMA would violate the consolidation range downwards, confirming a structural weakness that exposes the recent panic lows near 24,850.
- The formidable overhead hurdle is the 50-DMA supply zone at 25,740 – 25,750. A high-volume close above this dynamic resistance will negate the bearish implications of this week’s upper shadow, signaling a bullish breakout with an initial target of 26,050.
- Volume remained relatively muted during the upward attempts but showed subtle upticks on the rejection days, hinting at distribution near the resistance levels.
- The daily RSI is hovering in the neutral-to-bearish zone, currently printing near 45-48, unable to decisively cross and sustain above the 50-mark. This reflects a lack of bullish momentum and the dominance of the overhead sellers.
- The daily MACD remains in negative territory. While the selling momentum had paused, the histogram shows no signs of bullish expansion, indicating the trend remains vulnerable.
- Conclusion:The Nifty 50 is caught in a tight technical squeeze, but the weekly candle structure clearly tilts the short-term bias in favor of the bears. The prominent upper shadow, coupled with the lack of a lower wick, signifies that overhead supply at the 50-DMA (25,750) is formidable and aggressive. Until this resistance is conquered on a closing basis, the index remains vulnerable to testing the lower bounds of its consolidation range. The market is awaiting a decisive breakout from the 25,300 – 25,750 band to establish its next primary trend.
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