StockReport Archive - Page 13 of 27 - StoxBox

Weekly Report: 25th November 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The key equity benchmarks concluded a truncated week with modest gains after Friday’s major rally following strong US labor market data. The Nifty closed above the 23,900 level, and the Sensex settled above the 79,100 mark. The HSBC Flash India Composite Output Index stood at 59.5 in November compared to 59.1 recorded in October, indicating a sharp rate of expansion that was the strongest in three months and above its long-run average. On the global front, US retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, rising 0.4% last month, above the 0.3% expected, and compared with the upwardly revised 0.8% advance in September. Robust consumer spending helped the economy maintain its strong pace of growth last quarter.

Week Ahead

Next week, The domestic equity market may respond to the outcome of the Maharashtra Assembly election results over the weekend. India’s GDP growth data for the third quarter will release on Friday, 29 November 2024. The Indian economy expanded by 6.7% from the previous year in the June quarter of 2024, slowing from the 7.8% increase in the earlier period. US FOMC minutes on Wednesday, 27 November 2024 will reveal insights into the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut to 4.50-4.75%, following Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential victory. Japan’s consumer confidence data for November is set to release on Friday, 29 November 2024. The consumer confidence index in Japan declined to 36.2 in October 2024 from September’s five-month high of 36.9.

Technical Overview

The benchmark index began the week under selling pressure, continuing its corrective decline from the preceding week. During the first four trading sessions, the price action demonstrated an inability to maintain momentum at the day’s high, consistently closing in the lower quartile of the trading ranges.
This trend resulted in a test of the 50 Weekly Moving Average (MA) for the first time since April 2023. However, after this test, the index experienced a long-awaited technical recovery, culminating in a closing increase of 374 points from the prior week and successfully reclaiming the 200 Daily MA. The volatility exhibited a modest increase, as evidenced by a rise of 8.95% in the India VIX, which reached 16.1.
The trading week concluded with the majority of broader and sectorial indices reflecting a downtrend, accompanied by a worsening of negative momentum. However, several sectorial indices began to show early indications of diminishing negative momentum, which is a positive development.
In terms of market breadth with regards to extension, the percentage of stocks trading above the 10 and 20 Daily MAs (DMA) continues to reside in oversold conditions. Nonetheless, the weak rebound observed on Friday suggests that these figures may not persist in oversold territory.
Furthermore, the percentage of stocks trading above the 50 DMA has remained below median levels for the eighth consecutive week. More concerning, the breadth above the 200 DMA has also sustained below median levels for a second consecutive week; continued sub-median performance for at least one month may indicate a transition from a bull market to a bear market.
Throughout the truncated trading week, the momentum market breadth remained weak, though a mild recovery on the final day suggests a potential transition from a no-money market environment to a hard-money market.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty index is currently testing significant resistance levels and is not entirely out of volatility concerns. As we approach the expiry week of the monthly derivative series, the forthcoming days are likely to be influenced by rollover-centric activities. The zone of 23350-23250 represents critical support, and its maintenance above this threshold will be essential to mitigate further drawdowns. We anticipate a meaningful technical pullback, with pivotal resistance identified near 24535 and 50 DMA, which is currently trading near 24780, potentially serving as a substantial resistance zone.
The prevailing market swing confidence remains at a neutral level, indicating that portfolios should exercise caution and refrain from assuming any open risk at this time. It is advisable to await further technical evidence, such as a closing above the designated 24150-24200 zone, to confirm the establishment of a base formation at the current low points.

To view the detailed report click here to Download

Weekly Report: 11th November 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The markets had a mixed week, ending lower despite some global optimism following the US Federal Reserve’s 0.25% interest rate cut. The Nifty fell by 156.15 points to 24,148.20, and the Sensex dropped by 237.8 points to 79,486.32. In India, exports of services grew by 14.6% YoY to $32.6 billion, while imports rose by 13.2% to $16.5 billion. The HSBC Composite Output Index also improved to 59.1 in October, better than expected. Globally, the US economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, much fewer than anticipated. Following this, the Fed cut rates by 0.25%. In Europe, the Bank of England reduced interest rates to 4.75%, its second cut since 2020, due to high inflation and slower growth.

Week Ahead

Next week, investor sentiment will be shaped by a combination of domestic and global factors, with particular attention on the final batch of second-quarter results (Q2FY25) from Indian companies, which are expected to offer valuable insights into corporate performance. India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) will be released on November 12 and November 14, respectively, while balance of trade data will be published on November 15. On the global front, US inflation data will be released on November 13, followed by a speech from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on November 15. Additionally, Japan’s GDP growth rate, as well as China’s industrial production and retail sales data, will also be released on November 15.

Technical Overview

The markets have been navigating a cautious path over the past week, reflecting a lingering sense of uncertainty.
The Nifty index digested the fallout from the US election results, with two days of robust technical rebounds quickly met with selling pressure, leaving the index oscillating within a broad range. In fact, it navigated a substantial 721-point swing throughout the week.
As volatility eased, the India VIX dipped by 6.95%, settling at 14.47.
However, despite a week characterized by range-bound trading filled with uncertainty, the headline index wrapped up with a net loss of 156 points. Most broader indices are feeling the pressure, finding their uptrends under threat, while sectorial indices have firmly entered a downtrend. On a brighter note, there has been a noticeable improvement in momentum, a positive development.
On the market breadth front, while the percentage of stocks trading above 10 and 20 DMA remains below their median, those above 10 DMA have begun to outnumber those above 20 DMA. This suggests a potential shift in intermediate trends and momentum.
Stocks that are above their 50 DMA are still lagging, but those above 200 DMA are inching lower to the median levels and a drop below 50% here could intensify the bearish sentiment.
Wednesday was a standout day for the momentum market breadth, rekindling hopes for a potential rally. Yet, the week concluded with the second-lowest momentum level seen in the last 10 trading sessions.
Technically, the Nifty has not fully escaped the challenges it faces; it has dipped below its 20-week moving average, currently sitting at 24775. A cluster of resistance levels lies ahead, with the 100 DMA at 24709 and a short-term 20-day MA at 24486.
This creates a formidable 250-point resistance zone around the 24500-24750 levels, meaning any technical rebounds may struggle once the index approaches this area, making it of cardinal importance to decisively reclaim this zone on a closing basis to attract bullish momentum.
On the flip side, the 23900-23800 zone holds immediate support. Should that be breached, the markets could succumb to greater weakness. As we look ahead, it’s clear we are in for a turbulent ride, with higher volatility and erratic swings expected. Given the current landscape, staying in cash appears to be a wise strategy, as swing confidence remains at zero and the broader market cautions against taking open risks with portfolios right now.

To view the detailed report click here to Download

Weekly Report: 04th November 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The benchmarks witnessed mix trend during the week, closing lower despite of two days of gains. The BSE Mid-Cap index and BSE Small-Cap index outperformed the frontline indices . In the week ended on Thursday, 31st October 2024, the S&P BSE Sensex fell 13.23 points or 0.02% to settle at 79,389.06. The Nifty 50 index jumped 24.55 points or 0.10% to settle at 24,205.35. The BSE Mid-Cap index added 1.13% to close at 45,966.71. The BSE Small-Cap index declined 1.01% to end at 47,946.53. The BSE Small-Cap index rallied 5.06% to end at 54,982.87. On economy front, The finance ministry maintains that the Indian economy will grow between 6.5% and 7.0% in the current fiscal year.

Week Ahead

Next week, investor sentiment will be influenced by a mix of domestic and global factors, with a particular focus on the second-quarter results (Q2 FY25) for Indian companies, which are expected to provide insights into corporate performance .Global stock market movements and the upcoming 2024 United States presidential election on November 5 will also play crucial roles. The behavior of foreign and domestic institutional investors will also be closely monitored . On the macro front, HSBC India Manufacturing , composite & service PMI data for October will release in the coming week. In the global market, The US Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates on Friday, 8 November 2024.

Technical Overview

Over the past five trading sessions, the Nifty has predominantly engaged in a consolidation phase, characterized by a bearish undertone.
The index has exhibited trading activity within a defined range and concluded the week with a modest gain. Notably, it remained below critical resistance levels.
Accompanying this stabilization, market volatility has increased, evidenced by an 8.68% surge in the India VIX, which reached a weekly close of 15.90.
The constrained trading range, with the Nifty oscillating within a 363-point bandwidth, was significantly narrower compared to the preceding week. Despite the overall bearish setup, the headline index achieved a weekly gain of 123.55 points (+0.51%).
The conclusion of the week saw several broader and sectoral indices trending downwards; however, a deterioration in their negative momentum could be interpreted as a positive development, signaling a potential transition from a no-money market environment to a hard-money market framework.
From a market breadth perspective, the proportion of stocks trading above the ten-day moving average (10-DMA) has returned to levels above the median, indicating improvements in shorter-term trends among these stocks.
Conversely, the percentage of stocks trading above the twenty-day moving average (20-DMA) has fallen below the median levels, while those above the sixty-day moving average (60-DMA) are hovering near 60. Further improvement in these areas is deemed essential.
Towards the end of the week, there was an uptick in market breadth volume, supporting the transition narrative from a no-money to a hard-money market, as evidenced by enhanced stock participation.
It is noteworthy that in the previous week, the Nifty breached and closed significantly below the 100-day moving average, currently situated near 24670. Concurrently, the index also violated the 20-week moving average, which is positioned 24750.
Thus, the range of resistance identified 24750-24650 this zone becomes pivotal; the Nifty’s continued presence below this resistance zone renders it susceptible to ongoing selling pressure.
The most immediate support for the Nifty is positioned near 23900; a breach of this level could exacerbate market weakness.
In anticipation of global market conditions providing a favorable backdrop, it is projected that the Indian markets may experience a stable start to the upcoming trading week on Monday.

To view the detailed report click here to Download

Weekly Report: 28th October 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The Indian benchmark indices experienced major losses during the week as the market extended its loss streak to 4 weeks. The decline was driven by the pressure from FII exodus, weak earnings and large scale selloff. The pressure in the broader market was more intense during the week as various indices continued to bleed. The global market also reflected a similar scenario, as weak earnings continue to weigh. Nasdaq was the only anomaly during the week.

Week Ahead

As the investors gear up for the coming week, earnings continue to act a significant trigger, affecting the sectoral trends during the week. Investors will also closely watch on FII and DII activity to gauge the market sentiment. Middle-East escalations will also act as a key trigger that could impact energy prices and volatility in the market. Key economic indicators to follow during the week: US job opening data, Japan Consumer confidence, US Q3 GDP data, BOJ’s interest rate decision and US core PCE price index.

Technical Overview

The overextended markets demonstrated a continued decline for the fourth consecutive week.
During the past five trading days, despite a few attempted technical rebounds, the Nifty Index has remained largely under sustained selling pressure that resulted in the loss of key support levels on the daily charts, as the trading range expanded significantly. The Nifty oscillated within a substantial 904-point range before culminating in a net weekly loss of 673 points.
Additionally, volatility increased, with the India VIX surging by 12.23% to 14.63 on a weekly basis; any movement beyond 15.7 warrants caution.
The week ended with the majority of broader market indices and sectoral indices exhibiting pressure on their uptrends, leading to a deterioration in momentum—a concerning development.
Market breadth analysis reveals that the percentage of stocks trading above their 10-day and 20-day moving averages has now dwindled to single digits.
Furthermore, the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average has fallen below median levels, currently reading below 20, with similar values last observed in March 2023 and 2024.
For the first time since June 2024, the percentage of stocks above the 200-day moving average has also dipped below the 50 median levels. Sustaining these levels for a minimum of one month will be crucial in confirming a transition from the current bull market to a bear market.
However, with stock participation at extreme lows, these trends indicate oversold conditions, hinting at the potential for a mild technical pullback in the near future.
The upcoming week presents a truncated trading schedule; as Friday’s trading session will feature a brief ceremonial Mahurat session lasting only one hour.
The Nifty has breached its critical support levels on the daily chart, specifically 20-week moving average positioned near 24700. This adverse technical landscape has lowered resistance levels for the Nifty to the range of 24500-24700.
Consequently, any potential technical rebounds are likely to encounter resistance in this zone, implying that rebounds will be susceptible to selling pressure as long as the markets remain below this threshold.
In light of the current technical setup, the market has entered a challenging environment characterized by a risk-off sentiment. It is imperative to prioritize investments in stocks demonstrating strong relative strength compared to the broader market. A selective and cautious approach is thus advised for the forthcoming week.

To view the detailed report click here to Download

Weekly Report: 21st October 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The Indian benchmarks witnessed substantial losses during the week, extending their losing streak for the third consecutive week. The indices were lower for three out of five trading sessions. The BSE Mid-Cap index and BSE Small-Cap index fell. In the week ended on Friday, 18 October 2024, the S&P BSE Sensex tumbled 156.61 points or 0.19% to settle at 81,224.75. The Nifty 50 index declined 110.20 points or 0.44% to settle at 24,854.05. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.18% to close at 56,600.05. The BSE Small-Cap index declined 1.01% to end at 47,946.53. On economy front, India’s wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rose to 1.84% in September as food items, especially vegetables, turned costlier, as per the government data released on Monday.

Week Ahead

Investor are gearing up for a week filled with corporate earnings and global market dynamics. The second-quarter results (Q2FY25) for Indian companies will be a key focus, potentially influencing sectoral trends. Meanwhile, global stock market movements, the rupee’s exchange rate, and crude oil prices will also play pivotal roles in shaping the market’s direction. Investors will be closely monitoring the activities of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) to gauge their sentiment. On the macro front, HSBC India PMI data for October will release on Thursday, 24 October 2024. In the global market, United States Durable Goods Orders data for September will release on Friday, 25 October 2024.

Technical Overview

The Nifty50 began the trading week positively; however, due to shorter-term moving averages acting as overhead resistance, selling pressure led to a decline throughout the week.
The index tested pivot supports in the zone of 24750-24650 and experienced a slight recovery on Friday.
The VIX decreased by 1.38% for the week.
The trading week concluded with most broader and sectoral indices under pressure but showing improved momentum compared to the previous week, indicating a positive development.
The market breadth concerning short-term trends exhibited deterioration, as the number of stocks trading above their 10 and 20-day moving averages failed to sustain above median levels. The number of stocks above the 10-day moving average dipped below those above the 20-day moving average.
The larger trend remains steady, with stocks trading above the 50 and 200-day moving averages maintaining their positions above median levels. However, further improvement in stocks above the 200-day moving average is necessary for a healthier market.
Toward the end of the week, the momentum market breadth showed a declining trajectory, and market breadth volumes indicated reduced stock participation, resulting in a more selective market environment.
Moving forward, the behavior of the Nifty against the 25000-25100 zone is significant, given that the 25100 aligns with the 50-DMA, while the 25000 level is a psychologically important threshold.
The upcoming week may begin subdued, with levels of 25100 and 25440 serving as potential resistance points.
The 24750-24650 zone is anticipated to provide immediate and firm support, and sustainability above it could strengthen bullish conditions in the index.
Conversely, failure to hold above this zone may lead the Nifty to address the former gap-down area until 24300. The overall swing confidence is rated at 25 out of 100, indicating a need for portfolios to adopt minimal acceptable risk.

To view the detailed report click here to Download

Weekly Report: 14th October 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The market ended the week with minor cuts, declining for the second straight week, with Nifty settling below the 25,000 level. The RBI Governor announced that the MPC decided to maintain repo rate at 6.5% and projected GDP growth at 7.2%, while shifting from a ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ to a ‘neutral’ policy stance. Titan reported 25% standalone revenue growth in Q2 FY25, while TCS’ net profit declined by 1.08%, and operational revenue increased by 2.63%. On the global front, the British economy rose by 0.2%, US CPI inflation eased to 2.4%, core CPI rose by 0.1%, and US jobless claims increased to 258,000.

Week Ahead

Investors await Q2 corporate earnings and major global markets like the US and China will be under scrutiny. The rupee-dollar exchange rate and crude oil prices are being closely monitored, as an increase in crude oil prices affects inflation, corporate margins, and consumer spending. India’s WPI and CPI will be declared on October 14, while balance of trade data will be released on October 15. Globally, US retail sales data will be released on October 17, Japan’s inflation data on October 18, and China’s GDP, industrial production, and retail sales data on October 18.

Technical Overview

The past week exhibited a stark contrast to the preceding one, with the market undergoing significant consolidation within a narrow range.
The trading week began with the Nifty50 index facing selling pressure and breaching below the 50-DMA, but managed to avoid a distribution day. Subsequently, the index experienced a slight recovery and moved sideways within a narrow range around the 50-DMA, ultimately closing the week 50 points lower than its previous close.
The index sought to limit drawdowns, with the pivot point and the previous gap-down area near 24750 serving as immediate support.
Concurrently, the fear index, or VIX, witnessed a 6.4% decline throughout the week.
By the week’s end, most broader indices were trading with their uptrends under pressure, while their negative momentum showed improvement. While, several sectorial indices, trending with their uptrends under pressure, witnessed deteriorating negative momentum.
In terms of market breadth, stocks trading above their 10 and 20-DMA exhibited a reversal trajectory from oversold territory, signalling initial positive signs. However, stocks trading above 50 DMA continued to trade below median levels for consecutive weeks.
Notably, there was a significant improvement in momentum market breadth and market breadth volume, indicating improving stock participation and a potential transition from a no-money market to a hard-money market.
Consequently, risk-aware market participants can consider initiating pilot positions.
Looking ahead, the coming weeks are pivotal from a short-term perspective. Notably, the NIFTY Bank and FINNIFTY will no longer have weekly contracts starting November 20 due to recent SEBI directives. Only NIFTY will offer weekly contracts, potentially leading to increased volatility in the indices in the coming days.
Of significance is the Nifty’s behavior against the 25000-25050 zone, given that the 25050 aligns with the 50-DMA, while the 25000 level remains a psychologically important threshold. The upcoming week may witness a subdued start, with the levels of 25050 and 25440 serving as probable resistance points. The 24750-24650 zone is expected to provide immediate and firm support, and sustainability above it could bolster bullish strength in the index.

To view the detailed report click here to Download

Weekly Report: 07th October 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The key equity indices ended the truncated week with significant losses amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, triggered by the Israel-Iran conflict. India’s fiscal deficit improved to 27% of the full-year target for April-August, down from 36% in FY24, while the HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to 56.5 in September. Tata Motors reported an 11.52% sales decline, contrasting with Bajaj Auto’s 19.60% increase. In broader economic news, the British economy grew 0.5% in Q2, Germany’s inflation rate fell to 1.5%, China’s central bank plans to cut mortgage rates, and the US added 143,000 jobs in September, reflecting resilience in the job market.

Week Ahead

FPIs are reallocating funds from India, viewed as expensive, to Hong Kong amid optimism for a Chinese economic rebound. Market dynamics will hinge on rupee-dollar fluctuations, crude oil prices, and domestic institutional investor (DII) activity. The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet from October 7-9, with outcomes announced on October 9, while industrial production data for August will be released on October 11. Globally, the US will publish key inflation and consumer sentiment data on October 10 and 11, following a recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Technical Overview

Amidst geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, SEBI’s announcement of changes in the derivatives trading landscape, and significant FII selloffs, the market faced strong corrective pressure, ending the week on a weak note.
The Nifty 50 remained under selling pressure throughout the week, showing no intention of a technical pullback. The market experienced persistent weakness in all four trading sessions, with a widening trading range of 1167 points over four days.
Additionally, volatility surged, with the India VIX rising by 18.10% to 14.13 on a week-on-week basis.
The benchmark Nifty 50 closed with a substantial weekly decline of 1164.35 points (-4.45%).
The week concluded with broader and sectorial indices trending downward, indicating deteriorating momentum and worsening market breadth.
A significant number of stocks traded below their respective 10 and 20-day moving average, nearing oversold territory, while those above their 50-day moving average also fell below the median threshold.
Stocks trading above their 200-day moving average dipped below the 70 levels, signaling early signs of market weakness, although further confirmation is necessary.
The market breadth shifted to highly pessimistic momentum, reflecting diminishing stock participation.
On the technical front, the price action is currently trading slightly below the 50-day moving average, considered institutional support. Reclaiming the average line, currently trading near 25033, on a weekly closing basis in the coming week is crucial; otherwise, selling pressure may persist.
A follow-through on the upside in the coming week is essential.
Derivatives data suggest that the market may seek support at 25,000 levels, which hold the highest PUT OI and minimal Call OI, making it a psychologically important level.
A stable start to the week is expected, with major resistance levels at 25430 and 25790, and major supports anticipated at 24780 and 24600.
Currently, most broader and sectorial indices are experiencing an early downswing. As a result, overall swing confidence remains low, indicating that portfolios should refrain from taking any open risk.

To view the detailed report click here to Download

Weekly Report: 30th September 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The Indian frontline indices managed to end the week with decent gains as they continued to record new record highs during the week. The broader markets howeer remained under pressure during the period. The frontline gains was largely driven by the overall positive sentiment in the market. The key sectors contributing to the gains were Auto and Oil & Gas. The global markets also maintained a positive momentum, with the Asian indices being the star while the US markets made modest gains.

Week Ahead

Global market trends, exchange rate movement and crude oil prices will significantly influence the domestic market in the week ahead. FII & DII flow data will also be closely monitored by the participants. The Q2 current account data will be released on Monday, while the HSBC PMI data will be released on Tuesday. Key international economic data during the week consists of China’s PMI data, Eurazone Unemployment rates, US service PMI data, India service PMI and US Non-Farm payroll.

Technical Overview

The benchmark index began the trading week with limited activity and remained relatively stable until mid-week.
The early week’s potential accumulation resulted in a surge in price movement on Thursday, ending the week 388 points higher and reaching new all-time highs of 26277.
Large-cap stocks displayed a positive divergence compared to mid and small-cap stocks, suggesting potential flows from the latter into the former.
However, the week concluded with major broader and thematic indices confirming an uptrend, albeit with subdued positive momentum.
Market breadth analysis indicated that stocks trading above their 10 and 20 daily moving averages retraced below the 50% threshold, while those trading above their 50 and 200 daily moving averages continued to trade above their mean levels. This suggests that the shorter-term trend remains subdued while the primary trend remains intact.
The momentum market breadth remained largely positive, with the 5-day ratio trending above threshold levels, signalling favourable swing trading conditions.
Market breadth volume remained subdued for most of the week, indicating selective stock participation. On the technical front, the zone of 26250-26280 represents crucial resistance.
The index, while slightly extended, will require a decisive confirmation on closing above the zone for further trend continuation.
The index holds immediate support near 25950. As long as the Nifty sustains above 25750, it is expected to continue attracting bullish strength.
The swing confidence remains at 50, signifying that the portfolio can take half the permissible open risk.

To view the detailed report click here to Download

Weekly Report: 23rd September 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The Indian frontline indices witnessed significant gains, recording their all time high for the second straight week. The positive sentiment in the market was influenced by the Fed decision to cut rates by 50 bps. However, significant selloff was also evident in the broader market largely due to the rising concerns of global slowdown. India’s WPI cooled to a four month low of 1.31% in August primarily due to decline in prices of manufactured goods and food items. The global markets remained largely positive during the week. The key highlight for the week would be the decision of rate cut by the Fed and BOJ’s decision to keep the rates unchanged.

Week Ahead

Participants will continue to closely monitor the key economic data about to be released in the week coming which will likely serve as a trigger for the market. The investors will be keenly following the activities of FII/DII while keeping a close watch on the economy. The participants will likely be taking a cautious stance during the week amidst the concerns of global economic slowdown. The key events to lookout during the week would be the US Manufacturing PMI, US QoQ GDP data and US Core PCE Price Index.

Technical Overview

Throughout the trading week, the benchmark index displayed limited activity and remained within narrow ranges, indicating reduced volatility.
However, on Friday, there was a surge in buying activity by FIIs, leading to the Nifty50 reaching record highs of 25849 and closing near the upper quartile of the trading range.
By the end of the week, most broader and thematic indices were confirmed to be in an uptrend with improving positive momentum. Many stocks trading their 10- and 20-day moving averages displayed positive recovery, although they still remain below the median threshold.
Conversely, the number of stocks trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages is well above their medians, signaling the continued strength of the primary trend.
While market breadth demonstrated some improvement towards the end of the week, the 5-day breadth ratio remains below par, necessitating further improvement for favorable market conditions.
The increase in market breadth volume also suggests heightened stock participation, a positive sentiment. Despite mid and small-cap indices experiencing selling pressure on Thursday, they remain above their 50-day moving average, crucial for maintaining a positive structure.
The banking index exhibited significant recovery and currently trades 4% away from the mean, indicating the potential for further upside.
The Nifty50 showed limited activity until Friday, making it essential to observe follow-through above the previous day’s high for the momentum to continue.
On the technical front, 25330 serves as immediate support, followed by 25200, and maintaining levels above these thresholds is crucial for sustaining bullish strength.
The swing confidence level remains at 50, indicating that the portfolio should assume half of the allowable open risk.

To view the detailed report click here to Download

Weekly Report: 16th September 2024

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

Domestic barometers clocked strong gains, hitting fresh record highs during the week. The positive sentiment in the Indian market was likely influenced by the upbeat global market mood, fueled by expectations of interest rate cuts by major central banks. This global optimism provided a supportive backdrop for the domestic market. The domestic equity market edged higher in three out of five trading sessions during this week. The Sensex closed above the 82,850 level and the Nifty settled above the 25,350 mark.

Week Ahead

While a rate cut is expected, persistent underlying inflation could temper its size. The recent US CPI report, the last major economic indicator before the meeting, reinforces the need for a rate reduction but suggests caution. India’s balance of trade data for August will release on Monday, 16 September 2024. India’s WPI Inflation data for August will release on Tuesday, 17 September 2024. On Global front, US Fed’s interest rate decision is on Wednesday, 18 September 2024. Japan’s Balance of Trade for August will release on Wednesday, 18 September 2024 and Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision is on Friday, 20 September 2024. These are the key certain to watch out for next week.

Technical Overview

Throughout the trading week, the benchmark index experienced slow initial activity, followed by progressive accumulation in the first half of the week, leading to a notable upsurge and reaching record highs of 25433 before closing in the upper quartile of the trading range.
The index closed 504 points higher than the previous week, and the VIX decreased by 17%, signalling reduced pessimism in the market, a favourable development.
The week concluded with all broader indices and most sectorial and thematic trades exhibiting a confirmed uptrend with positive and improving momentum.
Regarding market breadth, the number of stocks trading above their respective 10 and 20-day moving averages rose to above their 50% threshold
While those trading above the 50 and 200-day moving averages continue to reside in the bullish zone. This indicates an improvement in shorter-term trends while the larger trend remains intact.
With regards to momentum market breadth, there was modest improvement throughout the week, complementing the strength observed in the general market, another positive sign.
However, market breadth volume remains subdued, indicating continued selective stock participation.
Concerning price action, the support levels have shifted higher from 24800 to the 25150-25000 zone. Sustaining levels above this will enable the index to continue to accrue bullish strength for a potential increase towards 25800.
The confidence in the market swing remains notably strong, permitting the undertaking of maximum permissible open risk in the portfolio while maintaining a prudent, stock-specific approach.

To view the detailed report click here to Download