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Nifty opened the week on a tepid note and remained under pressure throughout the week to end the week with a loss of 2.67%. Index has closed around the confluence of support which includes Anchored VWAP, 50 WEMA and 38.2% retracement level of its prior upmove. Hence, going ahead 17450, shall act as a critical support for the index. Failure to hold the mentioned support will open the way for 17200-17030 levels. Whereas on the opposite side resistance is seen at 17630-17880.

The 50 index began the week on a higher note, but it kept facing stiff selling pressure from the shorter-term EMAs and edged lower throughout the week. The index breached below the 100 DEMA and undercut the key support levels of 17774 and saw a smart recovery on Friday. On the higher timeframe, the price action has formed a series of inside bars at the support of 20 WEMA indicating a volatility compression. The vicinity of 17774-17850 levels holds a strong support zone by means of 20 WEMA, 100 DEMA, and the previous gap area. Hence as far as Nifty sustains above the said zone there are higher possibilities of the index avoiding any major breakdown and it is anticipated to attract bullish momentum on a decisive close above 18100.

The 50 indexes continued to dither in the defined trading range of 350 points and continued to form a series of 4th inside bar indicating volatility compression without showing any directional bias. The compression is coming at the back of 20 WEMA which has been tested consecutively 5 times and closely lies in the proximity of 100 DEMA and 78.6% retracement level. The index is anticipated to attract bullish momentum on a decisive closing above 18270 and sustenance above the 20 WEMA.

The 50 index remained jittery amidst a highly volatile and eventful week ahead of the Union Budget. The pattern analysis on the weekly chart shows that Nifty has violated two crucial supports of 20 WEMA and 100 DEMA with an engulfing candle pattern and in turn has dragged the resistances lower making the correction even more cogent. The market status has now shifted to a downtrend as it breached below the recent correction low near 17660 in the week gone by. It holds major support at 200 DEMA and the recently violated supports are anticipated to act as immediate resistance hence it will be crucial for the index to take out the zone of 17900-18100 convincingly to attract bullish momentum.

Nifty saw a negative start to the week and largely remained range bound throughout the week on above-average volumes with the pivot near 17430 acting as immediate resistance. The index had immediate support of the falling trendline connecting the intermediate tops, 38.2% retracement level, 50 WEMA, and 200 MA and managed to break above the range on tepid volume. The VIX cooled off by 14% to 12.18 readings which warrants caution. Going forward it will be crucial that index the manages to trail above the 50 WEMA trading near 17460 levels to garner further bullish momentum.

Index opened the week on a strong note and witnessed a rally in the first half of the week, while in the last 2 sessions, index pared all its gains to close the week near the lows with a percent loss. Nifty has closed around 38.2% retracement levels of its prior whole advance, which also coincides with 52 WEMA, which has provided critical support historically. Hence, going ahead, failure to move past 17500, would attract further selling pressure dragging index lower till 17270, followed by 17050 and 16830. While, a move past 17500, would attract some upward momentum towards 17630-17780-18000.

The index succumbed to selling pressure immediately on Monday and made a series of new lows until Thursday. The decline was arrested near the support of the falling channel coupled with 100 WMA trading near 17050 and the index saw a tepid pullback on Friday ushering a close above the psychological support of 17K. The FPIs recorded the largest short positions in the week gone by to the tune of 4,56,641 contracts in the F&O segment. Peak short positions of FPIs have often been a lead indicator of market reversals. On the price action front, the index is anticipated to garner bullish strength provided the levels of 17050 remain protected on a weekly closing basis. .

The pattern analysis shows that the index is trading within a falling channel and currently trails at the support of the pattern. The negative closing of the last trading day saw the index ending in the negative on the weekly note and slipping below the 50 weekly moving average. Despite violating the important support, it continues to rest at the lower edge of the channel pattern and sustenance above the same will be very crucial going forward. It is to be noted that Thursday is a trading holiday on account of Ram Navmi so the monthly derivative expiry will happen a day earlier than usual.

Nifty saw a positive start to the week and closed on a cheerful note for the financial year 2022-23. It traded sideways for the week forming a base within the support of a previous gap-up zone and eventually took out the lateral range with 17100 levels acting as immediate resistance on upbeat volume on Friday on the back of heavy short recovering from the lower level. This also indicates at buyers gradually attempting to steal the sellers’ strength for the first time amidst the hostile market environment. The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows Nifty rebounding sharply after taking support on the falling channel and reclaiming the 100 and 50 WMA. The monthly closing also came to a notch higher above its 20 MMA with a long doji candle showing indecision amidst the corrective trend. The coming week remains a truncated one with just 3 trading sessions in the week. Going forward it will be crucial that the index continues to sustain above 17200 levels to attract further bullish strength.