Weekly Trend Report
- 01st march 2025
Week Gone By
Indian equity markets ended the week with significant losses, marking the fourth consecutive week of declines. Both the S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 fell sharply due to global uncertainties and tariff-related announcements by the US. India’s foreign exchange reserves fell to $635.72 billion, snapping a three-week gaining streak. The Reserve Bank of India reported a marginal 0.3% rise in currency circulation, while the overall reserve money contracted by 1.1%. Meanwhile, Tuhin Kanta Pandey was appointed as the new SEBI chairperson, succeeding Madhabi Puri Buch. India’s GDP growth for the October-December quarter stood at 6.2%, largely in line with expectations. Global markets remained volatile as the US announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, alongside reaffirmed plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico
Week Ahead
The upcoming week will set the tone for global risk appetite, with central bank policy expectations and geopolitical developments taking center stage. For Indian markets, the combination of global economic outlook, tariff concerns, and foreign fund flows will drive market direction. The US Nonfarm Payrolls and Eurozone CPI will offer crucial insights into labor market strength and inflation trends in the US economy, potentially shaping interest rate expectations. The ECB interest rate decision and the Fed Monetary Policy Report will further guide investor sentiment on future policy directions. Any surprises in job data or inflation could drive market volatility, making this week critical for gauging the global economic outlook.
Technical Overview
- Sharp Decline in Nifty: Nifty 50 experienced a sharp decline this week, closing at 22,124.70, down 1.86% on the last trading session, signaling strong bearish momentum.
- Head & Shoulders Breakdown: The formation and breakdown of the Head & Shoulders pattern accelerated the sell-off, leading to a sustained downtrend.
- Key Support at 22,000: The index is hovering near the 22,000 support level, which has been crucial in recent sessions. A breakdown below this level could push Nifty toward 21,700–21,500 in the coming days.
- Resistance at 22,700: A decisive breakout above 22,700 could provide a positive momentum shift, opening doors for 23,000 and above in the March series. Bearish RSI & ADX Signals: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bearish territory, reinforcing weakness. Additionally, the ADX indicator shows a strengthening downtrend, confirming selling pressure.
- MACD & DMI Bearish Crossover: The MACD histogram has deepened into negative territory, while the Directional Movement Index (DMI) exhibits a strong bearish crossover, suggesting downside continuation. High Selling Volume: A spike in sell-side volume highlights institutional selling, which could further weigh on Nifty unless fresh buying interest emerges.
- Consolidation or Breakdown?: Until a decisive move above 22,700 or below 22,000 occurs, the market is likely to consolidate within this range. However, a downside breach could lead to a sharp fall toward 21,700–21,500 levels.
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