Weekly Trend Report
- 02nd Jun 2025
Week Gone By
The Indian key equity indices ended with moderate losses this week, driven by profit booking, global uncertainties, and cautious investor sentiment ahead of key economic data. The market showed strength for two days, supported by the RBI’s record Rs 2.68 lakh crore dividend payout, which eased fiscal concerns and lifted investor confidence. However, the remaining three sessions saw declines, as rising global trade tensions, and elevated valuations triggered profit booking and risk aversion. During the week, Nifty 50 ended slightly lower by 0.41% at 24,750.70, while the Sensex dropped marginally by 0.33% to settle at 81,451.01. India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, according to IMF data cited by NITI Aayog CEO, he further stated that India may soon surpass Germany to become the third-largest economy. On the global front, U.S. federal trade court ruled that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority by imposing reciprocal tariffs on goods from over 180 countries. Although the court ordered the tariffs to be removed, a higher court quickly brought them back after an appeal, and the Trump administration may now take the case to the Supreme Court.
Week Ahead
Next week, investor sentiment will be shaped by a mix of important domestic and global economic data releases. India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Final) for May releases on June 2, followed by the Composite and Services PMIs on June 4. The RBI will announce its interest rate decision on June 6, with markets watching closely after the April rate cut to 6%. On the global front, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for May will be released on June 2. On June 3, the U.S. will also release its JOLTs Job Openings data for April. The U.S. ISM Services PMI will be in focus on June 4, followed by the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and press conference on June 5. Finally, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for May will be released on June 6, offering key insights into the health of the U.S. labor market.
Technical Overview
- Consolidation Near Resistance – NIFTY ended the session at 24,750.70, down 82.90 points, after failing to decisively cross 25,116, which remains a critical resistance level.
- Sustaining Above 25,000 Remains Key – The index continues to hover near the psychological 25,000 mark. It is crucial for NIFTY to sustain above 25,000 for any meaningful upside continuation.
- Failure to Hold May Lead to Range-Bound Action – If NIFTY fails to hold 25,000, we may witness a sideways consolidation between 24,500–25,100 in the near term.
- Immediate Supports Emerging – On the downside, 24,630 (near-term swing low) and 24,535–24,551 (zone of moving averages and Ichimoku support) will act as immediate support areas.
- Volume Spike on Down Day – The session saw a sharp volume jump to 853.78M, indicating institutional activity, possibly profit booking at higher levels.
- RSI Cooling Off But Above Midline – The RSI has dropped to 55.52, showing weakening momentum while still remaining in the bullish zone.
- Mixed ADX Readings – Though +DI is still above -DI, ADX at 26 is flattening, suggesting that trend strength is fading unless a breakout happens soon. MACD Shows Loss of Momentum – The MACD histogram is still positive but has started to contract, hinting at a slowdown in upward momentum.
- Trend Support Intact, But At Risk – The Parabolic SAR still supports the uptrend with dots below the price, but a close below 24,630 could reverse this setup.
- Conclusion
While the overall structure remains positive, NIFTY must sustain above the 25,000 mark for the rally to continue. Failure to hold this level could result in sideways consolidation between 24,770–25,116, with a possible revisit of support near 24,530–24,630. Traders should monitor price action closely around the 25,000 zone for directional clarity.
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