Weekly Trend Report
- 04th November 2024
Week Gone By
The benchmarks witnessed mix trend during the week, closing lower despite of two days of gains. The BSE Mid-Cap index and BSE Small-Cap index outperformed the frontline indices . In the week ended on Thursday, 31st October 2024, the S&P BSE Sensex fell 13.23 points or 0.02% to settle at 79,389.06. The Nifty 50 index jumped 24.55 points or 0.10% to settle at 24,205.35. The BSE Mid-Cap index added 1.13% to close at 45,966.71. The BSE Small-Cap index declined 1.01% to end at 47,946.53. The BSE Small-Cap index rallied 5.06% to end at 54,982.87. On economy front, The finance ministry maintains that the Indian economy will grow between 6.5% and 7.0% in the current fiscal year.
Week Ahead
Next week, investor sentiment will be influenced by a mix of domestic and global factors, with a particular focus on the second-quarter results (Q2 FY25) for Indian companies, which are expected to provide insights into corporate performance .Global stock market movements and the upcoming 2024 United States presidential election on November 5 will also play crucial roles. The behavior of foreign and domestic institutional investors will also be closely monitored . On the macro front, HSBC India Manufacturing , composite & service PMI data for October will release in the coming week. In the global market, The US Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates on Friday, 8 November 2024.
Technical Overview
- Over the past five trading sessions, the Nifty has predominantly engaged in a consolidation phase, characterized by a bearish undertone.
- The index has exhibited trading activity within a defined range and concluded the week with a modest gain. Notably, it remained below critical resistance levels.
- Accompanying this stabilization, market volatility has increased, evidenced by an 8.68% surge in the India VIX, which reached a weekly close of 15.90.
- The constrained trading range, with the Nifty oscillating within a 363-point bandwidth, was significantly narrower compared to the preceding week. Despite the overall bearish setup, the headline index achieved a weekly gain of 123.55 points (+0.51%).
- The conclusion of the week saw several broader and sectoral indices trending downwards; however, a deterioration in their negative momentum could be interpreted as a positive development, signaling a potential transition from a no-money market environment to a hard-money market framework.
- From a market breadth perspective, the proportion of stocks trading above the ten-day moving average (10-DMA) has returned to levels above the median, indicating improvements in shorter-term trends among these stocks.
- Conversely, the percentage of stocks trading above the twenty-day moving average (20-DMA) has fallen below the median levels, while those above the sixty-day moving average (60-DMA) are hovering near 60. Further improvement in these areas is deemed essential.
- Towards the end of the week, there was an uptick in market breadth volume, supporting the transition narrative from a no-money to a hard-money market, as evidenced by enhanced stock participation.
- It is noteworthy that in the previous week, the Nifty breached and closed significantly below the 100-day moving average, currently situated near 24670. Concurrently, the index also violated the 20-week moving average, which is positioned 24750.
- Thus, the range of resistance identified 24750-24650 this zone becomes pivotal; the Nifty’s continued presence below this resistance zone renders it susceptible to ongoing selling pressure.
- The most immediate support for the Nifty is positioned near 23900; a breach of this level could exacerbate market weakness.
- In anticipation of global market conditions providing a favorable backdrop, it is projected that the Indian markets may experience a stable start to the upcoming trading week on Monday.
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