Weekly Trend Report
- 05th April 2025
Week Gone By
The Key equity indices faced significant setbacks during the truncated week, driven by global sell-off triggered by President Trump’s unexpected tariff hike. This move led to a sharp decline in global markets. Despite the volatility, Moody’s projected India’s growth at 6.5%, reflecting resilience. The RBI announced an Rs 80,000 crore Open Market Operation to boost liquidity. The domestic equity benchmarks extended their losing streak for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, The S&P BSE Sensex tanked 1,390.41 points, or 1.80%, to 76,024.51. The Nifty 50 index tumbled 353.65 points, or 1.50%, to 23,165.70. On the macroeconomic front, the US ADP National Employment Report showed that private payrolls increased by 155,000 in March, following an upwardly revised 84,000 gain in February—a sign that the labor market remains resilient despite economic uncertainties.
Week Ahead
Indian market remains under pressure as global headwinds take center stage. A sharp decline in US markets and fresh concerns over potential pharma tariffs have dampened sentiment, paving the way for a time-wise correction. Despite near-term volatility, domestic economic fundamentals remain robust, with RBI’s supportive policies acting as a cushion. The upcoming Q4 earnings season will be a key driver of market direction. The ongoing tug-of-war between FIIs and DIIs, alongside external factors like crude oil prices and the dollar’s strength, will continue to shape sentiment in the week ahead. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s monetary policy committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet during April 7 to 9, 2025. In its previous meeting, the MPC voted to reduce the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points with immediate effect. Japan’s consumer confidence data for March will release on 9 April 2025. The US FOMC minutes will be released on 9 April 2025. China’s consumer price inflation data for March will release on Thursday, 10 April 2025. US inflation data for March will release on Thursday, 10 April 2025.
Technical Overview
- Bearish Breakdown – Nifty breached multiple support levels, confirming a bearish continuation pattern.
- Fibonacci Support Lost – The index slipped below the 0.382 retracement at 23,141, weakening buyer interest.
- Supply Zone Shift – The 23,000–23,200 range has turned into a strong resistance, capping upside attempts.
- Key Support Levels – Immediate support lies at 22,800–22,500, with a decisive breakdown triggering deeper losses.
- 20-Day EMA Breach – Trading below this moving average confirms bearish dominance in the short term.
- Put-Call Ratio Drop – PCR fell to 0.60, indicating aggressive call writing and fading bullish momentum.
- Max Pain at 23,100 – Options data suggests bearish control as bulls struggle to reclaim higher levels.
- India VIX Rises – A slight increase to 13.75 signals cautious sentiment, though volatility remains contained.
- Sell-on-Rise Strategy – As long as Nifty trades below 23,000, selling into rallies remains the preferred approach.
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