Weekly Trend Report
- 05th May 2025
Week Gone By
The stock market ended the shortened week with solid gains, driven by strong company earnings and positive economic data from India. The market closed higher in three out of four sessions. Investors are now keeping an eye on global events, including geopolitical tensions, tariff issues, and overall market trends. On Friday, Indian markets posted small gains, helped by hopes around US-India trade talks and fresh buying by foreign investors. Globally, some concerns emerged as US consumer confidence fell sharply in April, hitting its lowest level since May 2020. Meanwhile, Japan’s industrial output dropped by 1.1% in March, more than twice what analysts had expected. Overall, while domestic markets remain supported by strong earnings and improving economic signs, global developments will continue to play a key role in shaping investor sentiment in the coming days.
Week Ahead
The Indian stock market is expected to stay positive next week, supported by strong local economic conditions, reduced global risks, and steady buying by foreign investors. The ongoing Q4 results season will be a key factor in deciding the market’s direction. Several important companies are set to announce their results next week. On Saturday, 3 May 2025, Avenue Supermarts (DMART), Kotak Mahindra Bank, and State Bank of India will share their quarterly numbers. Globally, a few major events are lined up too. The US will release its ISM Services PMI data for April on Monday, 5 May 2025. On Wednesday, 7 May 2025, the US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates. Finally, China’s trade data for April will be out on Friday, 9 May 2025. All these updates will likely influence market mood in the coming days.
Technical Overview
- Nifty ended the session at 24,346, showing a muted close with marginal gains. The price action formed a small-bodied candle near the upper end of the recent trading range, reflecting a state of indecision after a sharp rally.
- The index continues to trade firmly above both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, suggesting short-term and medium-term trend alignment in favor of the bulls. The slope of both averages remains positive, providing dynamic support in case of pullbacks.
- Price is also holding above the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe, reflecting a technically strong setup. However, the upper cloud band now coincides with recent price highs, making it a zone to monitor for profit booking.
- The RSI remains elevated at 65, staying in bullish terrain but showing early signs of flattening — an indication that momentum is steady but not accelerating further.
- The ADX-DMI structure remains in favor of buyers, with the +DI above -DI and ADX line rising, reflecting trend strength. However, the angle of ascent has reduced, pointing to some moderation in momentum.
- MACD remains in buy mode, with the histogram showing continued positive momentum, though the bars are narrowing slightly — signaling some exhaustion near short-term highs.
- Recent sessions have seen volume expansion on green candles, which is a positive sign. However, the current candle lacked follow-through buying interest, hinting at short-term fatigue near 24,350–24,400.
- Structurally, the price has formed higher highs and higher lows, confirming a short-term uptrend. But Friday’s candle looks like a pause, possibly forming a short consolidation or flag before a further directional move.
- Gap support exists near 23,900–24,000, which coincides with the 20-DMA and recent breakout levels. This zone will be crucial to hold to avoid deeper retracement.
- Outlook: Nifty has managed to defend the 24,000 mark, which is now a key pivot. On the weekly chart, the index attempted to break above the 24,500 mark but failed to hold on a closing basis, indicating supply pressure near this level. Going forward, sustaining above 24,000 is essential, and a decisive close above 24,500 would open the path toward the 24,775–25,035 zone.
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