Weekly Trend Report
- 08th March 2025
Week Gone By
The headline equity benchmarks witnessed significant gains during the week, snapping a four-week losing streak, fueled by India’s strong GDP growth of 6.2% in Q3FY25 and rising GST collections, which boosted investor confidence. However, global uncertainties, such as weak U.S. economic data, slowing exports in China, and recession concerns, created market fluctuations. Overall, the market faced mixed signals from strong domestic fundamentals and external risks. Positive performances in mid and small-cap stocks provided support for the market. In the week ended on Friday, 07 March 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex soared 1,134.48 points or 1.55% to settle at 74,332.58. The Nifty 50 index climbed 427.8 points or 1.93% to settle at 22,552.50. The BSE Mid-Cap index rallied 3.35% to close at 39,888.29. The BSE Small-Cap index jumped 5.85% to end at 45,606.86.
Week Ahead
The domestic stock market has shown tentative signs of recovery after a five-month downtrend, but analysts warn of continued volatility due to US tariff concerns. Although the temporary postponement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico provided a short-term boost, ongoing negotiations will remain a significant market driver. India’s industrial production for January will release on Wednesday, 12 March 2025. India’s consumer inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of February will release on Wednesday, 12 March 2025. US JOLTs job openings for January will release on Tuesday, 11 March 2025. Job openings in the United States fell by 556,000 to 7.6 million in December 2024, indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market. US inflation data for February will release on Wednesday, 12 March 2025. The annual inflation rate in the US edged up to 3% in January 2025, compared to 2.9% in December 2024, indicating stalled progress in curbing inflation.
Technical Overview
- Nifty 50 Registers Strongest Weekly Gain of 2025 Amid Broad-Based Market Rally Nifty’s Rebound from Oversold Levels :
- The Nifty 50 index saw a notable recovery this week, bouncing off oversold levels as indicated by technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD. The RSI, which had been hovering in the bearish zone, has now started moving upwards, signaling improving momentum.
- Despite the bounce, Nifty remains below critical moving averages, including the 10-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. This suggests that while the short-term sentiment has improved, the broader trend is still under pressure.
- The index had earlier confirmed a Head and Shoulders pattern breakdown, triggering a downward trend. However, after reaching key support levels near 21,782, buying emerged, pushing prices higher.
- The rally was broad-based, with all sectoral indices closing in the green. The Metal and PSU indices led the gains, reflecting renewed investor confidence in cyclical and government-backed stocks.
- The bounce was accompanied by higher trading volumes, indicating strong participation from institutional and retail investors. A key observation is that past declines were met with lower volumes, signaling possible exhaustion of selling pressure.
- Immediate resistance is seen near 22,688, which aligns with recent swing highs and the breakdown zone. A decisive breakout above this level could open doors for a further rally toward 22,774–23,762.
- The MACD histogram, which had been deep in negative territory, is now showing signs of reduction in selling pressure. RSI has moved from the bearish region, indicating improving sentiment.
- On the downside, critical supports lie at 22,104, followed by 21,782 and 21,440. As long as these levels hold, the recent uptrend is likely to continue, with buyers stepping in on dips
- Outlook: While the Nifty has witnessed a strong recovery, a sustained move above key resistances, coupled with continued positive market breadth, would be essential for confirming a trend reversal. Investors should watch for follow-through buying and sectoral rotation in the coming sessions.
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