Weekly Trend Report
- 11th Aug 2025
Week Gone By
The domestic equity benchmarks ended the week with significant losses, weighed down by renewed global trade tensions after President Trump announced a doubling of U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, sparking concerns over a potential export impact. The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, along with its neutral policy stance, failed to boost investor sentiment amid persistent foreign portfolio outflows. Additionally, weak Q1 earnings from several major companies further dampened market morale. The overall tone remained cautious. Notably, the broader market underperformed, adding to the week’s bearish undertone. In the week ended on Friday, 08 August 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 742.12 points or 0.92% to settle at 79,857.79. The Nifty 50 index slipped 202.05 points or 0.82% to settle at 24,363.30.
Week Ahead
Investors are expected to closely monitor international trade developments after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a nearly 50% tariff on Indian imports. The move, which marks a significant escalation in trade tensions between the two countries, has raised concerns over retaliatory measures from India and potential disruptions across sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT services. With FIIs exiting, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have stepped in as stabilisers, absorbing part of the selling pressure, but concerns remain over whether this support will hold if outflows accelerate. Key major events next week include the consumer price inflation rate for the month of July, which will be unveiled on August 12. The wholesale price inflation figure for July 2025 will be made public on August 14. On the global front, China’s inflation rate for July 2025 will be released on August 9. The U.S. inflation rate for July 2025 will be made public on August 12.
Technical Overview
- The index has now closed in the red for six straight weeks — an event not seen in the past 5 years. Such a persistent losing streak indicates strong supply and lack of buying conviction, often linked to macro headwinds or sector-wide weakness.
- Nifty has slipped below the rising channel that had guided the rally for months. This structural break shifts the market bias from “buy on dips” to “sell on rallies,” indicating a potential medium-term downtrend unless the breakout level is reclaimed.
- The index is trading below both its 20-day and 50-day EMAs. These moving averages, which earlier acted as dynamic support, have now turned into strong resistance zones. Price rejection near these levels reinforces the bearish stance.
- The next significant horizontal support sits at 24,000. A decisive breach below this could trigger deeper declines toward 23,800 or even 23,500. This level is psychologically important as well, being a round number where bargain hunters may attempt entries.
- The MACD line remains well below its signal line, with the histogram widening on the negative side. This signals strong downside momentum and no early signs of reversal in sight.
- The ADX is at 30, a level that clearly signals a well-established and strong trend. With the -DI line well above the +DI line, this strength is currently in favor of sellers.
- The Relative Strength Index is at 33.58, holding just above the oversold threshold of 30. This suggests persistent weakness, but also that an oversold bounce could occur if selling becomes too stretched.
- Price action is entirely below the Ichimoku Cloud, with Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen both pointing down. The cloud ahead is red and flat, indicating lack of bullish momentum and possible sideways-to-lower price action in the near term.The broken 25,000 mark now acts as a ceiling. This range overlaps with the 50 EMA and prior breakdown point, making it a critical hurdle for any recovery. A weekly close above this zone would be the first sign of bullish repair.
Conclusion:
Nifty is in a historically rare stretch of weakness, having fallen six weeks in a row for the first time in half a decade. The breakdown below 25,000 confirms the shift in sentiment, with sellers dominating rallies. Unless 25,000–25,200 is regained on a closing basis, the path of least resistance remains lower, with 24,000 being the next crucial support to watch. Traders should remain cautious and align with the prevailing trend until a reversal pattern emerges.
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