Weekly Trend Report
- 16th Feb 2026
Week Gone By
Indian equity benchmarks ended the week lower, weighed down by heavy selling in IT stocks and fading hopes of near-term US rate cuts after stronger-than-expected US jobs data. Markets had begun the week on a firm footing, supported by FII inflows, optimism around the India–US trade agreement and positive Asian cues, but sentiment turned cautious mid-week ahead of key global triggers. On the economic front, India’s retail inflation stood at 2.75% in January 2026 under the new Consumer Price Index (CPI) series with base year 2024=100. Meanwhile, the central government’s net direct tax collections, after accounting for refunds, stood at Rs 19.43 lakh crore so far this fiscal year, up 9.4% from a year earlier. On the Global front, The China’s consumer price index rose 0.2% in January from a year earlier. In U.S, December retail sales report showed that consumer spending was flat following a 0.6% increase in November, missing the 0.4% monthly gain that was widely expected.
Week Ahead
Indian equities head into the next trading week under marked pressure and elevated volatility after a sharp late-week sell-off. Domestic benchmarks ended the week on a significantly weaker note, with the Nifty dipping below 25,500 and the Sensex dropping over 1,000 pts amid broad-based weakness, including tech and cyclical stocks. Globally, markets retreated from record highs as concerns around tech earnings and cautious positioning ahead of U.S. inflation data weighed on sentiment. With macro headwinds and policy uncertainties lingering, large-caps and defensive sectors could remain in foucs as investors continue to monitor global inflation cues and earnings signals for directional clarity. In India, Wholesales Price Index data for the month of January would be released on Monday. The Balance of Trade data for January 2026 would also be announced on the same day. In the US, the ADP Employment Change Weekly figures would be announced on Tuesday. On Thursday, the FOMC Minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve Meeting would be made public.
Technical Overview
- On the weekly timeframe, Nifty continues to trade above its 20-week and 50-week moving averages, confirming that the primary trend remains positive despite recent volatility.
- The 10–20 MA cloud on the weekly chart is still upward sloping, and price is holding near it, indicating structural strength within a broader consolidation phase. The 200-week moving average remains far below current levels, reinforcing long-term bullish bias.
- However, the index has repeatedly failed to break out of the 26,200–26,250 resistance zone, highlighting persistent supply and profit-booking at higher levels that have capped upside momentum.
- On the daily chart, Nifty has seen a sharp corrective move from the upper resistance band and is currently hovering near the 25,450–25,500 support zone, which aligns with prior breakout levels and short-term demand.
- This zone is acting as a make-or-break support. Candles in this area show long lower wicks and smaller real bodies, suggesting that buying interest is emerging on declines rather than aggressive selling.
- From an indicator perspective, RSI on the daily chart has cooled towards the 40–45 zone, reflecting weak momentum but not an oversold condition, suggesting scope for either consolidation or a technical bounce.
- MACD remains in negative territory but is flattening, indicating that selling pressure is slowing and downside momentum is not accelerating further.
- ADX remains subdued, confirming that the market is currently in a non-trending, consolidation-to-corrective phase rather than a strong directional move.
Conclusion:
- Overall, Nifty is undergoing a short-term corrective consolidation within a broader uptrend. As long as the index holds above the 25,450–25,500 support zone, the larger structure remains intact with scope for stabilization and recovery. A decisive breakout above 25,900–26,000 with volume is required to resume upside momentum, while a sustained breakdown below 25,300–25,200 could open the door for a deeper corrective move towards the 25,000 demand zone.
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