Sector Outlook: Neutral
UPL reported a 9% YoY and 22.3% QoQ increase in revenue to ₹110,900 million in Q2FY25, slightly below market expectations of ₹112,060 million.
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Net Loss widens amid pricing pressure
Revenue growth was driven by a 16% increase in volumes, offset by a 7% price decline and flat Forex impact. Regional performance was strong, with YoY growth in India (+13%), Europe (+8%), North America (+10%), and the Rest of the World (+29%), while Latin America remained flat. EBITDA rose 2% YoY and 22.8% QoQ to ₹13,520 million, with margins contracting to 12.2% due to lower gross margins. The quarter saw a net loss of ₹5,850 million, missing market expectations of ₹5,410 million. Despite pricing pressures, management expects significant margin expansion in H2FY25, aided by reduced input costs and the end of the destocking phase.
Key Concall Highlights
Latin America business:
- Flat Revenue Growth: Revenue from the region remained almost flat YoY in Q2FY25, balancing higher volumes and price erosion.
- Brazil Volume Growth: Volumes in Brazil increased by 30% YoY, primarily driven by fungicide products, despite price erosion in some products.
- Soybean Planting Demand: Management expects increased demand from Brazil as the soybean planting season advances.
- Strategic Focus: UPL plans to capitalize on growing demand in Latin America by expanding market share and driving volume growth.
North America business:
- In Q2FY25, revenue increased by 16% YoY, driven by strong demand in products like insecticides, fungicides etc.
- The Management expects that potential changes in international trade policies, particularly higher tariffs on Chinese exports to the US would strengthen their position in North America.
Europe:
- Revenue Growth: Revenue from the region stood at ₹12.6 billion, marking an 18% YoY increase driven by fungicide sales growth.
- NPP Bio Solutions Performance: The NPP bio solutions business in Europe saw a 25% YoY revenue growth, supported by robust volume increases.
- Future Growth Outlook: Continued growth in Europe is expected due to:
- New product launches.
- Stable active ingredient pricing.
- Internal supply chain improvements.
Rest of the World:
- Revenue declined 2% annually due to lower sales in herbicides and insecticides, which were partially offset by growth in fungicides.
UPL Sustainable Agri Solutions (India):
- The UPL SAS revenue growth for the quarter was increased by 20% YoY to Rs. 10.1 bn in Q2FY25, backed by increased volumes, particularly in herbicides and normalized channel inventory.
- The company’s sales related to cotton were negatively impacted due to low spraying activity in northern India. However, the company achieved growth by diversifying into other crops such as rice, maize, sugarcane etc.
- UPL SAS continued to focus on stricter credit, inventory norms and margins to drive better cash flows (complete impact to be seen post Kharif).
Advanta Enterprises:
- The company reported a 4% YoY increase in revenue to Rs. 11.1 bn, primarily driven by higher prices. The company’s continued business momentum is expected to yield favorable results in H2FY25.
Guidance:
- UPL remains confident of delivering on previously provided revenue growth guidance of 4-8%, which will be primarily led by volumes. The company also continue to guide to EBITDA growth of 50%+ in FY2025. Capex guidance for FY2025 is Rs18 bn.
- Volume growth for FY2026 is foreseen at around 5%. Prices are expected to remain flat versus current levels. Freight expenses that were higher in H1FY25 are expected to normalize in H2FY25.
- On the rights issue, management said they cannot comment on timelines due to regulatory restrictions, but UPL’s Board has revised the targeted amount to US$400 mn (down from US$500 mn previously).
Valuation and Outlook
The global agrochemical market remains subdued due to significant price erosion, with recovery expected to be gradual. UPL reported in-line Q2FY25 operational performance, but higher interest costs, Forex losses, and negative operating leverage led to a net loss. H1FY25 volume growth outpaced industry levels, while H2FY25 is expected to see slower volume growth but fading price declines. Management maintains FY25 guidance of 4–8% revenue growth and 50%-plus EBITDA growth as high-cost inventory liquidation concludes. Factors such as a US and European recovery, improved EBITDA margins in India, and a strong pipeline of innovative products support optimism. Despite near-term challenges, a strong H2FY25 recovery is anticipated. UPL’s rights issue and Advanta value unlocking will strengthen its balance sheet, positioning the company for operational normalization and growth.