StockReport Archive

Newsletter: 21th February 2025

New Leadership Boosts Religare Stock

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US frontlines registered a decline on Thursday’s trading session, with S&P snapping its two-day string of registering record highs and DJIA exhibiting the steepest loss amongst the three. The weak sentiments dominated the market after Walmart’s dampened forecast on consumer demand. The Asian markets remain mixed, with the Nikkei posting a weak debut on account of a stronger Yen and weakness in auto amidst the tariff concerns while Hang Seng remains strong. The Indian markets are expected to make a tepid start, as indicated by Gift Nifty, with weakness likely to persist, given the overall weak global market sentiments.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –75,453.16 (-0.37%)

Nifty 50 – 22,816.45 (-0.42%)

Bank Nifty – 48,957.65 (-0.76%)

Dow Jones – 44,195.15 (0.04%)

Nasdaq – 19,967.41 (-0.44%)

FTSE – 8,662.97 (-0.57%)

Nikkei 225 – 38,709.25 (0.09%)

Hang Seng – 23,238.42 (2.85%)

Sector: Investment Company

Burman family secures control, shares rise

Religare Enterprises’ shares jumped over 9% on February 21 after the Burman family secured majority control and became the company’s promoters. Their ₹2,116 crore open offer to acquire an additional 26% stake saw weak response, with only 0.07% equity tendered. Despite this, the Burmans now own 25.16% of Religare through entities like Finmart, Puran Associates, VIC Enterprises, and Milky Investment. The family, known for its stake in Dabur and Eveready, had gradually increased its holdings, buying a 3.6% stake for ₹277 crore in January 2024. Moving forward, they aim to stabilize the company, improve governance, and drive sustainable growth. Religare’s leadership and board will work with them to refine strategy and maximize long-term value. Shares were trading at ₹239.09 on the NSE at 9:34 AM. Traders see this as a shift in control that could bring structural improvements, while younger investors may find it a sign of renewed direction for the company.

Why it Matters:

The Burman family’s control of Religare Enterprises signals potential stability, better governance, and long-term growth, which could boost investor confidence. For traders, this shift may lead to structural improvements and better financial performance. For young investors, it highlights how strategic ownership changes can reshape a company’s future.

NIFTY 50 GAINERS

HINDALCO– 650.1 (1.77%)

EICHERMOT – 4948.15 (1.22%)

NTPC – 328.4 (1.00%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

M&M – 2738.55 (-3.55%)

DRREDDY – 1150.35 (-1.76%)

ULTRACEMCO – 11089.9 (-1.75%)

Secto: Hotels & Resorts

Indian Hotels rises on Morgan Stanley call

Indian Hotels’ stock rose 2% to ₹776 on February 21, continuing its five-day winning streak after Morgan Stanley maintained an ‘overweight’ rating with a price target of ₹856, indicating a 12.5% upside from its last close of ₹761. Despite a 13% drop in 2024, strong support from Mumbai’s hospitality market and rising revenue per available room (RevPAR) in key cities like Mumbai and Delhi have boosted confidence. The company reported a solid Q3 performance with a 29% YoY profit increase to ₹582 crore, driven by 29% revenue growth to ₹2,592 crore and EBITDA expansion to ₹1,020 crore. Margins improved to 39.4%, fueled by new businesses and steady demand in existing hotels. Analysts expect continued growth supported by weddings, events, and business travel. As of 9:20 AM, shares were at ₹775, up 1.8% on the NSE. For traders, this signals resilience, while young investors see long-term potential in the sector.

Why it Matters:

Indian Hotels’ strong performance and Morgan Stanley’s bullish outlook suggest potential upside, attracting traders and long-term investors. Rising revenue, profit growth, and demand resilience indicate stability in the hospitality sector. For young investors, it highlights how market trends and analyst ratings influence stock movements.

Around the World

Asian stocks traded in a narrow range on Friday as concerns over U.S. trade tariffs and high interest rates persisted, while Alibaba’s strong earnings fueled a rally in Hong Kong. Japanese markets were flat after higher-than-expected inflation data raised expectations of more Bank of Japan rate hikes. China’s mainland stocks lagged as an AI-driven rally cooled, though Alibaba’s 8.5% surge lifted Hong Kong’s Hang Seng by over 2%, boosting stocks like Tencent andJD.com. Japan’s inflation hit a two-year high, strengthening the case for more rate hikes, but factory activity remained weak. Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.2% as investors took profits, though Domain Holdings jumped 50% on a $1.7 billion takeover offer. South Korea’s KOSPI dipped 0.2% amid political jitters, while Singapore’s market stayed flat. India’s markets faced pressure from economic slowdown fears and potential U.S. tariffs, with Nifty 50 futures signaling a weak open.

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India's Mutual Fund Industry Sees 40% Growth

The total equity assets under management of India’s domestic mutual fund industry reached ₹33.4 trillion in 2024, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous year, according to Motilal Oswal’s Fund Folio Report.

Newsletter: 20th February 2025

Patanjali Rises on Legal Win

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US stock market showed modest gains on Wednesday, with all three major indices registering slight increases as participants absorbed the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes and Trump’s proposed tariffs. In Japan, the Nikkei index traded in the red, mainly due to pressure on the auto sector and a stronger yen. This negative sentiment extended across other Asian markets, including the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, which reflected similar cautious sentiments amidst ongoing trade uncertainties. Market participants in Asia were primarily concerned about the potential ramifications of the tariff plans on global trade dynamics. Given this backdrop, it is anticipated that Indian bourses will move in tandem with their Asian counterparts. Market sentiments in India are expected to remain weak amidst heightened volatility. The GIFT Nifty, which serves as an indicator of the Indian market’s performance, is pointing towards a negative start. Investors in India are likely to be cautious as they navigate through the uncertainties related to global trade and the implications of the Fed’s meeting minutes.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –75,631.09 (-0.41%)

Nifty 50 – 22,861.15 (-0.31%)

Bank Nifty – 49,222.65 (-0.70%)

Dow Jones – 44,535.67 (-0.21%)

Nasdaq – 20,056.84 (0.08%)

FTSE –8,712.53 (-0.62%)

Nikkei 225 –38,589.69 (-1.47%)

Hang Seng – 22,627.51 (-1.40%)

Sector: Edible Oil

Supreme Court Relief Boosts Patanjali Stock

Patanjali Foods’ stock rose over 1% to ₹1,847 on February 20, marking its third consecutive session of gains after the Supreme Court dismissed a ₹186 crore tax demand related to the pre-CIRP period. The tax dispute, spanning multiple years, was previously struck down by the NCLT and upheld by the Bombay High Court. The Income Tax Department challenged this in the Supreme Court, which rejected the petition on January 15, 2025. Patanjali Foods only became aware of the verdict on February 18, confirming that the liability no longer exists and will have no financial impact. The stock reacted positively to the news. In Q3FY25, the company reported a 71.3% jump in net profit to ₹370.9 crore, with revenue rising 15.1% to ₹9,103 crore. However, weak demand and high costs affected FMCG sales and margins. At 9:20 AM, shares traded at ₹1,836, up 0.7% on NSE.

Why it Matters:

The Supreme Court’s dismissal of the ₹186 crore tax demand removes a financial overhang, boosting investor confidence in Patanjali Foods. Strong Q3 earnings signal the company’s growth, but challenges like weak demand and rising costs persist. The stock’s positive reaction reflects market optimism despite ongoing industry pressures.

NIFTY 50 GAINERS

HINDALCO– 638.65 (1.97%)

SHRIRAMFIN – 566.95 (1.64%)

CIPLA – 1480.05 (1.09%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

MARUTI – 12430.9 (-2.01%)

HDFCBANK – 1692.7 (-2.00%)

ITC – 402.3 (-1.01%)

Secto: Microfinance Institutions

Karnataka Microfinance Woes Hit CreditAccess

Goldman Sachs reports that microfinance collection efficiency in Karnataka has dropped to 87-95% in February due to an ordinance banning unregulated microfinance activities. This has led to a liquidity crunch, rising stress, and slowing disbursements, impacting formal lenders. CreditAccess Grameen is the most affected, as Karnataka accounts for 31% of its loan book and holds a 19% market share in the state. The brokerage estimates a 15-37% hit to its pre-tax profit for incremental loss rates of 2-5% on its Karnataka portfolio. As a result, its stock fell 3% to ₹866.35 on NSE and has plunged over 40% in the past year. Other listed players with Karnataka exposure, like L&T Finance, IndusInd Bank, Bandhan Bank, and AU Small Finance Bank, are expected to see limited profit impact (1-3%). L&T Finance has macro-rural provisions of ₹900 crore, cushioning its exposure.

Why it Matters:

The drop in microfinance collection efficiency in Karnataka signals rising stress in the sector, impacting lender profitability and market confidence. CreditAccess Grameen, with high exposure, faces significant earnings risk, leading to sharp stock declines. While other lenders have limited impact, the situation raises concerns about regulatory risks and liquidity challenges in microfinance.

Around the World

Most Asian stock markets fell on Thursday due to concerns over high U.S. interest rates and new trade tariffs. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 2.2% as an AI-driven rally lost momentum, with tech stocks like Baidu and Alibaba sliding. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.7% as Trump announced 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, hurting Toyota and Honda. South Korea’s KOSPI slipped 0.6%, while Australia’s ASX 200 lost 1.3% amid fears that commodity exports could be affected. Strong Australian jobs data also raised concerns that the central bank may stay cautious on future rate cuts. Chinese markets dipped slightly, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.2%, but losses were limited as Trump hinted at a possible trade deal. India’s Nifty 50 futures pointed to a flat open, reflecting trade worries. Overall, uncertainty over U.S. policies and slowing AI momentum weighed on sentiment across Asian markets.

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Newsletter: 19th February 2025

Tata Motors’ Big Upside

Aaj Ka Bazaar

After an extended weekend, the US indices highlighted a rather mixed trend, wobbling between red and green before ending their day on a flat, albeit positive note. The mixed sentiment comes after the market prepares to wrap up its quarterly earnings, with Fed minutes coming up in the week and geopolitical uncertainty. On the Asian front, Nikkei exhibited a mixed debut as well, with sell-off amidst automaker shares offset the buying in banks amidst the rising yields in Japan. Meanwhile, Hang Seng made a weak start, however, the index is on its way to make a recovery. Domestically, the D-street are expected to make a flattish start accompanying a positive bias, as indicated by GIFT Nifty. We believe that markets could be under pressure today as US tariffs expectations continue to scare the overall global sentiments.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –75,956.62 (-0.01%)

Nifty 50 – 22,928.95 (-0.07%)

Bank Nifty – 49,383.95 (0.60%)

Dow Jones – 44,595.73 (0.09%)

Nasdaq – 20,032.62 (0.03%)

FTSE – 8,766.73 (0.01%)

Nikkei 225 –39,098.17 (0.44%)

Hang Seng – 22,911.68 (-0.38%

Sector: Passenger Cars & Utility Vehicles

Stock Surge on CLSA Rating Upgrade

Tata Motors’ stock rose 1% to ₹688 on February 19 after CLSA upgraded its rating to “high-conviction outperform” with a target price of ₹930, signaling a potential 36.3% upside. Despite a 12% decline in the past month and being 50% below its all-time high, CLSA sees this as a strong buying opportunity. Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) is trading at a low valuation of 1.2x FY27 EV/EBITDA versus its usual 2.5x, offering a cushion against risks like US tariffs and weak demand. A cyclical recovery in the commercial vehicle segment from FY27 could boost valuations soon. In Q3 FY25, Tata Motors’ net profit fell 22% to ₹5,451 crore, missing estimates, while revenue rose 2.7% to ₹1,13,575 crore. EBITDA margin improved to 7.8% due to cost-cutting. EV sales grew 19%, but fleet demand dropped post-FAME II subsidy expiry. The company expects gradual demand recovery, backed by infrastructure growth and stable interest rates.

Why it Matters:

Tata Motors’ upgrade by CLSA signals strong growth potential, with a 36.3% upside despite recent stock declines. JLR’s low valuation provides a safety net against market risks, while a commercial vehicle recovery could boost future earnings. Improving margins and stable interest rates support long-term confidence in the company’s growth.

NIFTY 50 GAINERS

BEL– 250.15 (2.27%)

TATASTEEL – 136.42 (1.40%)

NTPC – 315.3 (1.32%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

DRREDDY – 1151.4 (-3.84%)

SUNPHARMA – 1672.6 (-1.70%)

TCS – 3809.55 (-1.64%)

Secto: Cellular & Fixed line services

Airtel Stake Sale to Refinance Loans

Bharti Airtel conducted a block deal worth ₹8,475 crore on February 18, with promoter entity Indian Continent Investment selling a 0.9% stake. The company will use the proceeds to refinance loans taken for its investment in British Telecom (BT). Bharti Telecom, another promoter, bought 1.2 crore shares, while global and domestic investors, including Goldman Sachs, GQG Partners, SBI Life, and Vanguard, also participated. Airtel’s Q3 FY25 net profit surged 505% to ₹14,781 crore, driven by a one-time gain from Indus Towers’ consolidation, while revenue grew 19% YoY to ₹45,129 crore. The company added 0.6 million postpaid customers, expanding its base to 25.3 million. Despite a nearly 1% drop in stock price to ₹1,656 at 10:30 am, Airtel shares have gained 45% in the last year, reflecting strong market confidence. The block deal saw major institutional investors acquiring significant stakes, reinforcing positive sentiment around the company’s financial health.

Why it Matters:

Bharti Airtel’s stake sale helps refinance loans tied to its British Telecom investment, strengthening its financial position. The participation of major global investors signals strong confidence in the company’s growth. Despite a slight stock dip, Airtel’s 45% yearly gain and rising market share highlight its long-term potential.

Around the World

Most Asian stocks fell on Wednesday after U.S. President Trump threatened new 25% tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, but South Korea’s KOSPI surged 1.8% to a five-month high on strong tech stocks. Japan’s Nikkei and TOPIX dropped 0.4% and 0.3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the worst performer, down 0.7%. Despite the tariff concerns, markets showed resilience, as past threats have sometimes been used as negotiation tactics. China’s markets gained 0.7%, driven by optimism in AI and government support for private businesses. Samsung and SK Hynix jumped 2-4%, helping KOSPI recover losses from political turmoil. Singapore’s Straits Times rose 0.4%, supported by strong bank earnings, though United Overseas Bank dipped. U.S. stock futures stayed steady, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high. Traders are now watching for Federal Reserve signals and key economic data, while India’s Nifty 50 faces pressure from potential U.S. trade tariffs.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 22928.50

Bank Nifty – 49414.85

Nifty 50 – 22913.1 (Pivot)

Support – 22,833, 22,722, 22,642

Resistance – 23,024, 23,104, 23,215

Bank Nifty – 49076.93 (Pivot)

Support – 48,825, 48,563, 48,311

Resistance – 49,338, 49,590, 49,852

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Newsletter: 18th February 2025

EV Growth Drives Shares

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US bourses were closed on Monday on account of President’s Day. The Asian market exhibited a positive bias, with Nikkei posting gains, tracking the optimism from the European markets, improved geopolitical outlook and upbeat GDP front. Hang Seng continues its upward trend buoyed by its tech boom. Domestically, the markets are expected to make a weak start, as per the cue from GIFT Nifty. We expect a bounce back in sentiments as the day progresses, which would largely be on the back of a positive peer outlook and easing global sentiments.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –75,966.07 (-0.04%)

Nifty 50 – 22,921.80 (-0.16%)

Bank Nifty – 49,071.25 (-0.38%)

Dow Jones – 44,577.47 (0.07%)

Nasdaq – 20,037.25 (0.46%)

FTSE – 8,768.01 (0.41%)

Nikkei 225 –39,437.49 (0.67%)

Hang Seng – 23,080.23 (-2.05%)

Sector: Auto Components & Equipments

Uno Minda Expands into EV Powertrains

Uno Minda’s shares rose 2% to ₹909 on February 18 after announcing a joint venture with Suzhou Inovance Automotive and its subsidiary to develop high-voltage EV powertrain products for passenger and commercial vehicles. As part of the deal, Inovance Automotive (HK) will acquire a 30% stake in Uno Minda Auto Innovations, which will now operate as a joint venture with Uno Minda holding 70%. The partnership will manufacture key EV components like charging units, E-axles, inverters, and motors, with operations based in India under both brands. Governance includes an eight-member board, with Uno Minda appointing five directors, including the chairman. This expands their existing collaboration after a technical license agreement in June 2024. Uno Minda recently reported a 20% increase in net profit and revenue. Despite today’s gain, the stock fell over 8% last week and 17% last month. As of 9:40 AM, shares were at ₹900, up 1.2% from the last close.

Why it Matters:

This joint venture strengthens Uno Minda’s position in the growing EV market by expanding its product portfolio with high-voltage powertrain components. Partnering with Inovance Automotive brings advanced technology and expertise, enhancing competitiveness. Despite recent stock declines, the move signals long-term growth potential in India’s evolving EV sector.

NIFTY 50 GAINERS

TECHM– 1690.15 (1.51%)

WIPRO – 309.8 (1.46%)

APOLLOHSOP – 6359.55 (0.94%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

GRASIM – 2424.35 (-1.60%)

TATASTEEL – 132.14 (-1.60%)

BEL – 244.65 (-1.55%)

Secto: Electrical Equipment

ABB India Surges 4% on Strong Earnings

ABB India’s shares jumped nearly 4% to ₹5,440 on February 18 after reporting strong Q3 results, breaking a three-day losing streak. The company’s net profit surged 56% to ₹528.41 crore, up from ₹338.68 crore last year, driven by a 22% revenue increase to ₹3,364.93 crore—its highest December-quarter revenue in five years. Sequentially, net profit grew 20% and revenue 16%. For the full year, ABB India recorded its highest-ever order book at ₹13,079 crore and revenue of ₹12,188 crore. However, new orders for the quarter fell 14% due to large one-time orders in 2023. Growth came from strong demand across metals, mining, energy, chemicals, and renewables, with the Process Automation and Robotics segments performing well. The board proposed a ₹33.50 per share final dividend. By 9:20 AM, shares were at ₹5,230, up 3.6% from the last close, though the stock is down 25% year-to-date.

Why it Matters:

ABB India’s strong earnings and record-high order book highlight its resilience and growth potential despite a 25% stock decline this year. The company’s expansion across key industries like energy, mining, and renewables signals long-term demand. Its dividend announcement further boosts investor confidence in future performance.

Around the World

Most Asian markets rose on Tuesday, with Chinese tech stocks leading the gains ahead of key earnings reports. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2% as Alibaba surged nearly 5% and Baidu gained 0.4%, driven by confidence in China’s AI sector. Broader Chinese stocks also saw gains, supported by optimism over AI adoption and economic growth. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 0.5% after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 25 basis points but took a cautious stance on further easing due to inflation concerns. Major Australian banks declined, while mining giant BHP rose 0.5% despite reporting its weakest six-month profit in six years. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX gained 0.6%, South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.4%, and Singapore’s Straits Times inched up 0.1%. India’s Nifty 50 futures pointed to a weak open amid concerns over slowing growth and U.S. trade tariffs. U.S. markets were closed Monday, limiting global cues.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 22846.70

Bank Nifty – 48922.10

Nifty 50 – 22886.38 (Pivot)

Support – 22,798, 22,637, 22,549

Resistance – 23,047, 23,135, 23,296

Bank Nifty – 49034.5 (Pivot)

Support – 48,750, 48,241, 47,956

Resistance – 49,543, 49,827, 50,336

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Newsletter: 17th February 2025

Zen Tech Profit Drops

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US major indices ended on a mixed note in Friday’s trading session, with Nasdaq climbing, DJIA inched down, and S&P largely flat. The mixed sentiment was likely a combination of a slew of corporate earnings and a slip in treasury yields. Overall, however, the sentiment remained positive, with Trump’s halt on imposing new tariffs. The positive sentiment was well-reflected in the Asian markets after both Nikkei and Hang Seng were observed to be trading in the green territory. The positivity in the Japanese markets was further buoyed by the upbeat GDP growth. The Indian markets are also expected to make a positive opening during the day, as indicated by the GIFT Nifty. The overall sentiments are expected to positive, driven by favourable macroeconomic indicators, such as the delay of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. and a stable policy environment.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –75,725.99 (-0.28%)

Nifty 50 – 22,864.60 (-0.28%)

Bank Nifty – 48,849.35 (-0.51%)

Dow Jones – 44,575.48 (0.07%)

Nasdaq – 20,037.25 (0.46%)

FTSE – 8,732.46 (0.00%)

Nikkei 225 – 39,207.85(0.15%)

Hang Seng – 22,533.45 (-0.38%)

Sector: Aerospace & Defense

Zen Tech drops 20% after Q3 results

Zen Technologies’ shares hit a 20% lower circuit at ₹1,080 on February 17 after its Q3 results. The company’s net profit grew 22% year-on-year to ₹38.62 crore, up from ₹31.67 crore, mainly due to higher other income. However, profit nearly halved sequentially from ₹65.24 crore last quarter. Revenue followed a similar pattern, rising 44% YoY to ₹141.52 crore but dropping 41% from ₹241.69 crore in Q2, indicating a slowdown. EBITDA margins weakened YoY to 35.90% from 47.34% but slightly improved from 35.12% last quarter. Despite the decline, the company remains optimistic about meeting its financial targets. Its order book stood at ₹816.91 crore, ensuring a strong pipeline. Zen also transferred 9,000 ESOP shares and announced multiple acquisitions, including full ownership of Applied Research International and ARI Labs, a 45.33% stake in Bhairav Robotics, and a 51% stake in Vector Technics, signaling future growth plans.

Why it Matters:

Zen Technologies’ sharp sequential revenue and profit decline signal short-term weakness, impacting investor confidence. However, a strong order book and strategic acquisitions highlight long-term growth potential. Traders should watch execution trends and margin stability for future performance.

NIFTY 50 GAINERS

BAJAJFINSV– 1880.25 (2.12%)

SUNPHARMA – 1732.1 (1.86%)

ADANIENT – 2182.1 (1.37%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

M&M – 2841.1 (-3.45%)

ICICIBANK – 1238.35 (-1.73%)

AXISBANK – 982.45 (-1.51%)

Secto: Pharmaceuticals

Concord Biotech drops 12% after weak Q3

Concord Biotech shares dropped nearly 12% on February 17, continuing a six-day losing streak after weak Q3FY25 results. The stock traded at ₹1,490 as of 9:54 AM. The company reported a consolidated net profit of ₹75.9 crore, down 2.19% YoY from ₹77.6 crore last year. Revenue rose slightly by 1% to ₹244.2 crore from ₹240.8 crore. EBITDA declined 7.46% to ₹98 crore from ₹105.9 crore, while EBITDA margins fell to 40.1% from 44% in the previous year, reflecting profitability pressures. Concord Biotech specializes in manufacturing Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) through fermentation and semi-synthetic processes, focusing on immunosuppressants, oncology, antifungal, and antibacterial drugs. It operates two API plants and one finished formulation unit near Ahmedabad, Gujarat. The stock’s recent decline signals investor concerns over sluggish growth and margin compression, making future performance and market sentiment key areas to watch.

Why it Matters:

Concord Biotech’s falling margins and weak profit growth raise concerns about future earnings potential. The stock’s continued decline signals negative investor sentiment despite stable revenue. Traders should watch for margin recovery and growth catalysts to gauge long-term prospects.

Around the World

Asian stocks traded mostly flat to lower on Monday due to concerns over U.S. trade tariffs and high interest rates. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX rose slightly but showed little excitement despite stronger-than-expected GDP data, as private spending cooled. Chinese tech stocks, which had surged on AI optimism, paused their rally, though Tencent jumped 6% after testing DeepSeek integration. Concerns over a potential U.S.-China trade war also weighed on sentiment. Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 0.8% from record highs as investors awaited the RBA’s expected rate cut. South Korea’s KOSPI gained 0.8% on AI-driven chip stock momentum, while Singapore’s Straits Times index rose 0.4% despite weak export data. Taiwan’s TSMC climbed 1.4% on reports of a possible Intel acquisition. India’s Nifty 50 futures pointed to a slightly positive open, but fears of higher U.S. tariffs kept investors cautious. Overall, market sentiment remained mixed across the region.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 22,864

Bank Nifty – 48893

Nifty 50 – 22,945 (Pivot)

Support – 22,758, 22,587, 22,399

Resistance – 23,117, 23,304, 23,475

Bank Nifty – 49,137 (Pivot)

Support – 48,681, 48,264, 47,808

Resistance – 49,555, 50,010, 50,428

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Weekly Report: 17th February 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The key equity indices witnessed selling pressure during the week following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports. India’s retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to a five-month low of 4.31% in January 2025, mainly due to lower food prices whereas, India’s retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to a five-month low of 4.31% in January 2025, mainly due to lower food prices. In the week ended on Friday, 14 February 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex tanked 2.47% to settle at 75,939.21. The Nifty 50 index dropped 2.68% to settle at 22,929.25. The BSE Mid-Cap index dropped 7.70% to close at 39,731.79. The BSE Small-Cap index slumped 9.47% to end at 45,411.25.

Week Ahead

The Indian stock market is expected to remain under pressure next week due to a continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows and weak corporate earnings, particularly among mid-and small-cap companies. Concerns regarding tariffs and a depreciating rupee are also contributing to the negative sentiment. Although the recent talks between Modi and Trump offer some hope for a trade deal, a sustained market recovery is unlikely until FII selling decreases. Key economic data to watch next week includes the release of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Thursday, February 20, 2025. Additionally, Japan’s inflation data for January 2025 is scheduled for release on Friday, February 21, 2025, alongside the HSBC Composite, Services, and Manufacturing PMI Flash data for February. The ongoing trend of investors favouring large-cap stocks over mid-and small-cap stocks is anticipated to continue.

Technical Overview

Nifty is currently trading at 22,929, reflecting a sharp decline of approximately 630 points or 2.68% over the past week, indicating strong bearish sentiment. The index has faced persistent selling pressure around the 23,500 level, which has now emerged as a significant resistance zone, preventing any meaningful recovery. Despite this weakness, Nifty has successfully defended the 22,750-22,800 support zone twice during the week, highlighting the importance of this level as a key short-term base.
A major source of pressure on the markets has been aggressive bearish positioning by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who are currently holding short positions on the Index to the extent of 84.13%, adding to the overall selling bias. Sectorally, Nifty Realty emerged as the worst performer, losing over 9.5% during the week, while Nifty Media also experienced significant weakness, declining by approximately 8%.
Options data further confirms the bearish outlook, with the highest call writing seen at the 23,500 strike price, followed by notable resistance at the 23,000 strike, signaling that these levels could cap any near-term upside. On the support side, the highest put open interest is seen at the 22,500 strike, followed by 22,800, indicating that these levels may offer some cushion against further downside.
Technically, Nifty is trading below its critical 20, 50, 100, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bearish structure on the charts and suggesting that recovery attempts may face supply pressure. Additionally, the MACD has given a negative crossover, indicating a loss of bullish momentum, while the RSI has also turned negative, reflecting weakening strength in the index.
Given this backdrop, the sustenance of Nifty above the 22,800 level is crucial for preventing further downside; a decisive break below this zone could trigger further selling pressure, pushing the index towards the 22,500 support zone, while a rebound above 23,000 could provide some relief to market participants.

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Newsletter: 14th February 2025

Manappuram Falls on Weak Q3

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday, driven by gains in Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla. The rally came after U.S. President Donald Trump outlined a roadmap for implementing reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners. Asian markets were set for a positive start on Friday, buoyed by optimism over the delayed implementation of these tariffs, which raised hopes for further negotiations. Given the strong global cues, domestic equity benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher, with Gift Nifty indicating an 87-point rise. Investors will also keep a close watch on the outcome of the Modi-Trump meeting and the Q3 earnings reports scheduled for release today.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex -76,184.00 (0.06%)

Nifty 50 – 23,026.00 (-0.02%)

Bank Nifty – 49,327.30 (-0.07%)

Dow Jones – 44,777.55 (0.16%)

Nasdaq – 19,447.60 (1.51%)

FTSE – 8,764.72 (-0.49%)

Nikkei 225 – 39,199.83 (-0.67%)

Hang Seng – 22,303.80 (2.19%)

Sector: NBFC

Manappuram Finance Falls 5% on Weak Q3

Manappuram Finance shares dropped 5% to ₹183 on February 14 after weak Q3 results, mainly due to stress in its microfinance business. The RBI had banned its loan disbursements for a quarter over high pricing and excessive mark-ups, lifting the ban only last month. This led to a 5% drop in microfinance revenue to ₹665 crore, while bad loans and provisions from this segment surged fourfold to ₹473 crore. The company’s net profit halved to ₹282 crore. However, its gold loan portfolio, which makes up 75% of revenue, grew 17%, supported by record-high gold prices. Manappuram also announced an interim dividend of ₹1 per share, with February 21 as the record date. Motilal Oswal kept a “neutral” rating with a ₹215 target, citing profitability and growth concerns. The stock has fallen 8% in six months, lagging behind the Nifty 50’s 4% decline. Analysts project a steady rise in gold loans but slower overall profit growth.

Why it Matters:

Manappuram Finance’s weak Q3 results highlight risks in its microfinance business, with rising bad loans and provisions affecting profitability. Despite strong gold loan growth, overall performance remains under pressure, leading to stock underperformance. Analysts see near-term challenges, making future recovery uncertain.

NIFTY 50 GAINERS

HINDUNILVR – 2349.45 (1.20%)

TATACONSUM – 1035.00 (1.19%)

BRITANNIA – 4937.75 (1.00%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

ADANIENT – 2181.00 (-2.84%)

ADANIPORTS – 1089.30 (-2.00%)

DRREDDY – 1204.95 (-1.52%)

Secto: Gems & Jewellery

Senco Gold Falls 18% on Weak Q3

Senco Gold shares dropped 18% on February 14 after reporting weak Q3 earnings, mainly due to a sharp drop in profit margins. The EBITDA margin fell to 3.8% from 11% last year, impacted by higher costs from new subsidiaries, customs duty changes, and gold price volatility. Despite this, revenue hit a record ₹2,100 crore, up 27% year-on-year, driven by strong consumer demand during Dhanteras and Diwali. However, net profit slumped to ₹33.5 crore from ₹101.3 crore last year. Management remains optimistic, expecting EBITDA margins to recover to 7-8% in Q4 and beyond, supported by strong brand positioning and cost efficiencies. Gold prices surged 22% over the past year, but the reduction in customs duty during Q2 helped boost Q3 sales. Senco Gold plans to drive future growth through premium pricing and innovative products while leveraging India’s growing gems and jewelry market.

Why it Matters:

Senco Gold’s sharp margin decline and profit drop raise concerns about rising costs and business scalability. Despite record revenue growth, weak profitability led to an 18% stock decline, impacting investor confidence. The company’s future depends on margin recovery and sustained consumer demand.

Around the World

Asian stock markets traded mostly flat to lower on Friday due to concerns over rising U.S. trade tariffs and persistent inflation. While Wall Street closed strong, uncertainty remained as President Trump signed an order planning higher duties on major U.S. trading partners. Inflation data also fueled worries about prolonged high interest rates. However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped 1.6%, driven by a rally in Chinese tech stocks following the release of DeepSeek AI. Australia’s ASX 200 hit a record high, supported by expectations of an interest rate cut next week and rising commodity prices due to cyclone-related supply disruptions. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Singapore’s Straits Times index fell slightly, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained 0.4% on strong tech stocks. India’s Nifty 50 futures pointed to a flat open as investors analyzed Trump and Modi’s trade discussions, with concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on Indian imports.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,200

Bank Nifty – 50,000

Nifty 50 – 23,086 (Pivot)

Support – 22,937, 22,843, 22,693

Resistance – 23,180, 23,329, 23,423

Bank Nifty – 49,490 (Pivot)

Support – 49,145, 48,930, 48,585

Resistance – 49,705, 50,050, 50,265

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India's Mutual Fund Industry Sees 40% Growth

Newsletter: 13th February 2025

Natco Tumbles on Weak Q3

Aaj Ka Bazaar

Wall Street’s main indexes closed on a mixed note on Tuesday, with gains in Coca-Cola and Apple offsetting losses in Tesla. Investors were closely analyzing the latest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He stated that the central bank does not need to rush to adjust interest rates, indicating that officials will be patient before further lowering borrowing costs. In Asia, equities also displayed mixed results. Japanese stocks saw an increase, while Australian shares remained stable in anticipation of the US inflation report scheduled for Wednesday. Additionally, stock index futures suggested potential gains for Hong Kong stocks. Considering the global market cues, the domestic equity benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open cautiously on Wednesday following a significant decline in the previous session and amid mixed signals from global markets. Moreover, Prime Minister Modi’s two-day visit to the US, beginning on Wednesday, comes at a crucial time. As he meets with President Trump to discuss trade, there are hopes for a breakthrough that could ease tariff tensions and restore market confidence.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex -76,666.20 (0.65%)

Nifty 50 – 23,140.15 (0.41%)

Bank Nifty – 49,691.05 (0.85%)

Dow Jones – 44,561.63 (0.19%)

Nasdaq – 19,648.78 (0.03%)

FTSE – 8,807.39 (0.34%)

Nikkei 225 – 39,523.13 (1.46%)

Hang Seng – 21,644.77 (1.56%)

Sector: Pharmaceuticals

Natco Pharma plunges 18.5% on weak Q3

Natco Pharma shares dropped 18.5% on February 13 after disappointing Q3FY25 results. Net profit fell 38% YoY to ₹132.4 crore, while revenue declined 37% to ₹474.8 crore. EBITDA margin collapsed from 35.3% to 8.2%, mainly due to a sharp drop in formulation exports, which fell over 50% to ₹285.8 crore. Domestic formulation sales also dipped slightly to ₹96.1 crore. Since exports contributed 44% of Q3 revenue (down from 76% in FY24), the earnings impact was significant. The stock has been falling for five straight sessions, losing 25% in this period. Heavy selling pressure was seen, with 24 lakh shares traded—five times the monthly average—intensifying the decline

Why it Matters:

Natco Pharma’s sharp profit decline and margin erosion highlight major weakness in exports, which form a significant part of its revenue. The stock’s continued slide and high trading volumes indicate strong selling pressure and shaken investor confidence. Traders should watch for recovery in exports and operational improvements to gauge future performance.

NIFTY 50 GAINERS

TCS – 4015.00 (1.30%)

TECHM – 1684.50 (0.92%)

INFY – 1889.95 (0.76%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

M&M – 2965.00 (-3.92%)

BEL – 256.75 (-3.13%)

RELIANCE – 1198.30 (-2.96%)

Secto: Auto Components & Equipments

Bharat forge weaks Q3

Bharat Forge shares dropped over 5% to ₹1,047 after reporting weak Q3FY25 results. The stock has fallen over 30% in six months, underperforming Nifty 50’s 4% decline. Net profit dropped 16.4% YoY to ₹212 crore, while revenue fell 7.4% YoY to ₹2,095 crore. EBITDA declined 8% to ₹609 crore, with margins narrowing slightly to 29.1%. The company blamed weak European demand and volatility in the defence business. Despite this, Bharat Forge secured new orders worth ₹830 crore, with its defence segment generating ₹337 crore in revenue. The defence order book now stands at ₹5,706 crore, with expectations of strong long-term growth. The board announced an interim dividend of ₹2.50 per share, payable by March 12, with February 18 as the record date. Management remains optimistic about future defence revenue, expecting it to reach ₹2,200 crore in FY26, despite short-term volatility in the sector.

Why it Matters:

Bharat Forge’s weak performance and stock decline signal challenges in exports and defence business volatility, impacting investor confidence. However, strong order wins and long-term defence growth prospects suggest potential recovery. Traders should watch for demand improvements and execution of the ₹5,706 crore order book.

Around the World

Asian stocks rose on Thursday, driven by an AI-fueled rally in China and tech dealmaking in Japan, despite concerns over high U.S. inflation. Chinese markets, including the Hang Seng, gained as AI optimism pushed stocks up 5-15% since January. However, broader sentiment remained weak due to trade tensions with the U.S. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.2%, helped by a weaker yen and a bidding war for cybersecurity firm Trend Micro. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.9%, benefiting from China’s AI boom. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 inched up 0.2%, while Singapore’s Straits Times dipped 0.2%. U.S. stock futures rose in Asian trade despite Wall Street losses from stronger-than-expected inflation data, which reduced hopes for rate cuts. Risk appetite improved as Donald Trump talked about a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, leading to a drop in oil prices. India’s Nifty 50 futures pointed to a positive start, though U.S. tariff threats and weak sentiment weighed on the market.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,200

Bank Nifty – 50,000

Nifty 50 – 22,996 (Pivot)

Support – 22,874, 22,649, 22,501

Resistance – 23,193, 23,342, 23,540

Bank Nifty – 49,305 (Pivot)

Support – 48,908, 48,337, 47,940

Resistance – 49,876, 50,273, 50,844

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India's Mutual Fund Industry Sees 40% Growth

Newsletter: 12th February 2025

Birlasoft Profit Slips Sharply

Aaj Ka Bazaar

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –75,720.20 (-0.76%)

Nifty 50 – 22,896.15 (-0.76%)

Bank Nifty – 48,983.05 (-0.85%)

Dow Jones – 44,594.63 (0.00%)

Nasdaq – 19,642.78 (-0.36%)

FTSE – 8,777.39 (0.11%)

Nikkei 225 – 38,876.53 (0.19%)

Hang Seng – 21,634.77 (1.56%)

Sector: Computers- Software

Birlasoft shares crack 7%

Birlasoft reported a 1.5% increase in revenue for Q FY25, reaching Rs 13,627 crore, but its net profit fell by 27.4% to Rs 1,169 crore, mainly due to higher employee costs and weak seasonal demand. EBITDA dropped 23.7% to Rs 1,634 crore, and profit margins decreased to 12%, down by nearly 4%. As a result, Birlasoft’s shares fell by 2% to Rs 494.3. Analysts are pessimistic about the company’s performance, predicting further decline in revenue for Q4 due to extended employee furloughs and a weak demand outlook. The company expects growth in the BFSI (Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance) and Energy & Utilities sectors, but manufacturing and life sciences will continue to struggle. Brokerage firms like Nuvama and HDFC Securities have reduced their target prices for Birlasoft shares, indicating limited short-term growth and maintaining a negative or cautious outlook

Why it Matters:

Birlasoft’s weak profit and shrinking margins signal ongoing challenges, affecting investor sentiment. The company faces slower growth due to higher costs and uncertain demand, which could impact future performance. Reduced target prices from analysts reflect a cautious outlook, influencing stock value.

NIFTY 50 GAINERS

TCS – 4015.00 (1.30%)

TECHM – 1684.50 (0.92%)

INFY – 1889.95 (0.76%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

M&M – 2965.00 (-3.92%)

BEL – 256.75 (-3.13%)

RELIANCE – 1198.30 (-2.96%)

Secto: Automobile

TVS Motor to invest Rs 2,000 crore

TVS Motor has signed an agreement with Karnataka to invest Rs 2,000 crore over the next five years to set up a Global Capability Centre (GCC) in Mysuru. A GCC focuses on IT and related business functions. The company will also build a new test track and office infrastructure as part of this expansion. TVS Motor, which is the world’s fourth-largest two-wheeler manufacturer with 5.8 crore global users, aims to bring together engineers, designers, and experts in AI and machine learning at the new centre to drive innovation for next-generation bikes. The Mysuru facility, which already employs over 3,500 people and produces 15 lakh vehicles annually, will see efforts to double exports and revenue. This move is in line with Karnataka’s new Industrial Policy, which targets 12% annual manufacturing growth, aiming for Rs 7.5 lakh crore in investments and the creation of 20 lakh jobs by 2030.

Why it Matters:

TVS Motor’s Rs 2,000 crore investment in Karnataka will boost innovation and expand its operations, enhancing production and exports. The move strengthens the company’s global position in the two-wheeler market. It aligns with Karnataka’s growth targets, supporting job creation and economic development.

Around the World

Asian stocks mostly rose on Wednesday, with Hong Kong’s tech sector leading the gains, driven by excitement around artificial intelligence (AI). The Hang Seng index jumped over 2%, fueled by strong performances from Chinese tech companies like Alibaba and BYD, which saw significant stock price increases. Other regional markets were more cautious ahead of a key U.S. inflation report, with investors watching closely for hints about the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate moves. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose slightly, while South Korea’s KOSPI and Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite also saw modest gains. Meanwhile, China’s main indices barely moved. U.S. inflation data, along with comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating the economy is stable, kept traders on edge, as many are worried about the potential for higher interest rates and ongoing trade tensions. Indian and Australian markets showed mixed results, with India’s Nifty 50 slightly down and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,200

Bank Nifty – 50,000

Nifty 50 – 23,149 (Pivot)

Support – 22,908, 22,746, 22,505

Resistance – 23,312, 23,552, 23,715

Bank Nifty – 49,495 (Pivot)

Support – 49,084, 48,766, 48,355

Resistance – 49,814, 50,225, 50,543

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India's Mutual Fund Industry Sees 40% Growth

Newsletter: 11th February 2025

Eicher’s Motors Growth, Margins Struggle

Aaj Ka Bazaar

Indian markets are expected to have a subdued start, with the GIFT Nifty remaining flat, which suggests a steady opening for Dalal Street. On Monday, Wall Street closed higher, driven by significant gains in Nvidia and AI-related stocks, while steelmakers saw a surge after Donald Trump proposed additional tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. In Asia, sentiment was mixed: Australia and South Korea reported slight gains, whereas Japan remained closed, resulting in muted movements in US Treasury yields in the region. Considering these factors, technology and AI-driven stocks are likely to continue attracting interest, while metal stocks could experience some volatility due to concerns over global trade tensions. Overall, the market is expected to trade with a cautiously positive bias, keeping an eye on sector-specific trends and global developments.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –77,977.28 (-0.10%)

Nifty 50 – 23,306.75 (-0.32%)

Bank Nifty – 49,725.15 (-0.51%)

Dow Jones – 44,431.11 (-0.10%)

Nasdaq – 19,709.19 (0.95%)

FTSE – 8,767.80 (0.77%)

Nikkei 225 – 38,801.17 (0.00%)

Hang Seng – 21,367.69 (-0.72%)

Sector: Automobiles

Eicher Motors Ltd. Q3FY25

Despite Eicher achieving double-digit growth across its financial metrics, the results fell short of market expectations. Revenue growth was primarily driven by increased RE and VECV volumes. However, profitability suffered due to higher promotional costs, which offset the positive effects of improved exports, resulting in lower margins. Looking ahead, we maintain a positive outlook for the company, anticipating continued revenue momentum, though margins are likely to be pressured by persistent marketing expenses. With the introduction of new models such as the Bear 650, Guerilla 450, 2024 Classic 350, Goan Classic 350, and Shotgun 650, the company strengthens its position in the midsize motorcycle segment. Additionally, the opening of a new assembly plant in Thailand and plans to establish a new CKD unit in Brazil will boost its international presence. Furthermore, the company’s entry into the EV market with its new brand “Flying Flea” expands its reach. Overall, despite short-term challenges from increased promotional expenses.

Why it Matters:

Eicher’s strategic initiatives and strong product lineup position it well for sustained growth and expansion in both domestic and international markets. Key factors to watch will be the management’s commentary on new launches, cost management plans, and updates on the CKD unit in Brazil.

NIFTY 50 GAINERS

ADNIENT – 2350.70 (2.61%)

GRASIM – 2516.20 (1.74%)

HINDALCO – 602.75 (1.13%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

EICHERMOT – 5089.95 (-4.60%)

APOLLOHOSP – 6468.10 (-4.34%)

POWERGRID – 263.00 (-2.12%)

Secto: Railways

RVNL Secures ₹335cr Deal, Shares Dip

RVNL’s stock fell nearly 2% in early trading on February 11, despite winning a ₹355.43 crore project from South Western Railway. At 9:22 AM, its share price was ₹375.10, down 1.63% on the BSE. The project involves designing, supplying, installing, testing, and commissioning KAVACH equipment over 790 RKM in the Hubballi and Mysuru Divisions, with completion expected in 18 months. This follows RVNL’s ₹210.78 crore project win on February 7 for upgrading the electric traction system in the Kharagpur-Tatanagar section and a ₹404.40 crore contract secured on February 4 from East Coast Railway. The company’s board will meet on February 12 to review its Q3 and nine-month financial results. Despite strong order inflows, the stock decline suggests investor caution, possibly due to execution risks or broader market trends. Traders and investors will closely watch financial results and future contracts for growth outlook and stock movement.

Why it Matters:

RVNL’s stock decline despite securing large projects suggests concerns over execution challenges, profitability, or broader market trends. Investors might be cautious about the company’s ability to deliver within deadlines or profit margins on these contracts. Additionally, upcoming financial results on February 12 could impact sentiment.

Around the World

Asian stock markets fell on Tuesday as renewed U.S. tariffs under President Trump, particularly on aluminum and steel, increased global trade tensions and led to a risk-off sentiment. Investors shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold and bonds, fearing economic disruptions. China’s Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 fell 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.7% after a recent tech-driven rally. Other markets like the Philippines (-1%) and Indonesia (-0.6%) also declined, while South Korea’s KOSPI bucked the trend, rising 0.5%. U.S. stock futures also traded lower ahead of key inflation data due Wednesday, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 was flat as consumer sentiment remained weak despite expectations of an interest rate cut. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lower rates in its February 17–18 meeting, given easing inflation, according to Westpac economists.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,500

Bank Nifty – 50,200

Nifty 50 – 23,422 (Pivot)

Support – 23,275, 23,169, 23,023

Resistance – 23,528, 23,674, 23,780

Bank Nifty – 49,946 (Pivot)

Support – 49,737, 49,494, 49,284

Resistance – 50,190, 50,399, 50,642