Newsletter: 10th February 2025

Sun TV Crashes 7%

Aaj Ka Bazaar

Wall Street ended sharply lower on Friday, with benchmark Treasury yields climbing in response to a mixed U.S. payrolls report, disappointing consumer sentiment data, and renewed trade war concerns. U.S. futures declined after President Trump announced he would reveal new steel and aluminum tariffs on Monday, along with reciprocal tariffs aimed at other countries.  In Asia, however, markets showed an upward trend, as both the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices reported solid gains driven by a rally in technology stocks. On the domestic front, Indian indices are drawing attention following the Delhi Assembly elections, where the BJP emerged victorious after 26 years. Given the global market dynamics, Indian equity benchmarks are anticipated to open flat on Monday, influenced by the global trade anxieties stemming from Trump’s tariff decisions.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex -77,977.28 (-0.10%)

Nifty 50 – 23,416.15 (-0.61%)

Bank Nifty – 49,915.20 (-0.49%)

Dow Jones – 44,392.78 (0.20%)

Nasdaq – 19,525.73 (-1.35%)

FTSE – 8,700.53 (-0.31%)

Nikkei 225 – 38,828.48 (0.11%)

Hang Seng – 21,435.42 (1.43%)

Sector: TV Broadcasting

Sun TV Falls on Weak Q3 Margins

Sun TV Network shares dropped over 7% on February 10 after the company posted weak Q3 results. Net profit fell 20% year-on-year to ₹363 crore from ₹453.9 crore in Q3 FY24, while revenue declined 10.4% to ₹827.6 crore. The company’s advertising revenue also dropped to ₹332.17 crore from ₹355.43 crore a year ago, impacting overall performance. The biggest concern was a sharp fall in EBITDA margins, which dropped to 53.7% from 63.8% last year due to weaker ad revenue and higher costs. Investors reacted negatively to the earnings report, leading to the stock decline.

Why it Matters:

Sun TV’s weak Q3 earnings highlight struggles in the media sector, with declining ad revenue and shrinking profit margins. A 20% drop in net profit and a sharp fall in EBITDA margins signal operational challenges. The 7% stock decline shows investor concerns over future growth and profitability.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

BRITANNIA – 4979.35 (2.24%)

BHARTIARTL – 1692.55 (0.94%)

HINDUNILVR – 2384.00 (0.85%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

TATASTEEL – 133.79 (-3.27%)

JSWSTEEL – 953.20 (-2.81%)

POWERGRID – 271.00 (-2.57%)

Secto: Defense

Bharat Electronics Rises on ₹962 Cr Orders

Bharat Electronics (BEL) secured new orders worth ₹962 crore, including ₹352 crore since January 28, 2025. These contracts cover anti-drone systems, fuzes, fire detection systems, vessel communication systems, spares, and services. With this, BEL’s total orders for the financial year now stand at ₹11,855 crore. In Q3, BEL’s revenue surged 37% year-on-year to ₹5,643.25 crore, while net profit soared 47% to ₹1,316.06 crore. The biggest highlight was its EBITDA margin expanding by 330 basis points to 28.7%, far exceeding its 23-25% guidance over the last six to eight quarters.

Why it Matters:

Bharat Electronics’ strong order inflow boosts its revenue visibility and growth prospects. The sharp rise in profitability and margins signals operational efficiency and strong demand for its defense products. Beating margin guidance consistently strengthens investor confidence in the company’s long-term potential.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian stock markets had a mixed start this week, with most indices falling after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, raising trade tensions. China plans to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. goods, adding to market uncertainty. Mining and steel stocks in South Korea, Japan, and Australia declined, while Indonesia’s market dropped 2% and India’s Nifty 50 fell 0.4%. However, Chinese AI stocks, including Baidu and Alibaba, surged, driving Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.5%. China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.4%, supported by investor optimism in AI and expectations of government stimulus. Inflation data showed weak consumer and industrial demand, increasing speculation that Beijing might introduce economic support, such as interest rate cuts or infrastructure spending. Despite trade concerns, AI-related stocks in China remained strong, helping offset broader market weakness. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were trading higher in Asia hours, providing some relief to investors.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,500

Bank Nifty – 50,400

Nifty 50 – 23,565 (Pivot)

Support – 23,437, 23,314, 23,185

Resistance – 23,688, 23,817, 23,938

Bank Nifty – 50,223 (Pivot)

Support – 49,806, 49,453, 49,035

Resistance – 50,576, 50,994, 51,347

 Have you checked our latest YouTube Video

Did you know?

India's Mutual Fund Industry Sees 40% Growth

The total equity assets under management of India’s domestic mutual fund industry reached ₹33.4 trillion in 2024, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous year, according to Motilal Oswal’s Fund Folio Report.

Weekly Report: 07th February 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The domestic equity benchmarks recorded modest losses this week, influenced by several key factors. The Union Budget announcement, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman,  affected investor sentiment. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) made a notable move by cutting interest rates for the first time in nearly five years, as anticipated, in an effort to revive economic growth. India’s fiscal deficit for the first nine months of the current fiscal year stood at Rs. 9.14 lakh crore, with total receipts at Rs. 23.18 lakh crore and overall government  expenditure at Rs. 32.32 lakh crore. On the global front, US President Donald Trump extended the proposed 25% import duties on Canada and Mexico by 30 days but remained firm on China, allowing his 10% tariffs on Chinese goods to take effect on Tuesday.

Week Ahead

The market will likely follow global cues for direction next week, while the ongoing earnings season is likely to drive stock-specific movements. The counting of votes for the much-anticipated Delhi Assembly elections is scheduled for Saturday, 8 February 2025. On the domestic front, India’s   Industrial production data for December and consumer price inflation data for January will be released on Wednesday, 12 February 2025. Additionally, WPI inflation data and balance of trade data for January are set to be published on Friday, 14 February 2025.  Globally, investors are closely watching the U.S. payrolls data, due on Friday, amid cautious optimism that a full-blown trade war can be avoided. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony is scheduled for Tuesday, 11 February 2025, while U.S. core inflation data for January will be released on Wednesday, 12 February 2025. This will be followed by Producer Price Inflation data on Thursday, 13 February 2025, and retail sales data for January on Friday, 14 February 2025.

Technical Overview
  • The Nifty50 index began the trading week on a negative note, influenced by global market cues, but witnessed a recovery on the following day. Nevertheless, the upward movement was constrained by the 50-day and weekly moving averages, which have   established a significant resistance zone near 23768-23754.
  • The index ultimately concluded the trading session with an increase of 77 points for the week, while the VIX declined by 2.9% to 13.69.
  • Throughout the week, the majority of broader and sectoral indices remained in a downtrend, trading below their 50-day moving averages.
  • However, there has been a notable improvement in momentum, as the indices have transitioned from the negative momentum quadrant to a more favorable positive momentum quadrant, representing a positive development.
  • In terms of market sentiment, over 70% of stocks traded above 10 DMA, reaching overbought levels during the week; however, due to profit-taking in the latter half of the week, only 58% of stocks continued to trade above 10 DMA.0
  • Examining broader trends, the proportion of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average and 200 DMA has remained significantly low over the past weeks, signaling a need for caution.
  • On the momentum breadth front, the data exhibited a positive reversal following four consecutive weeks of decline; however, it has not provided a robust follow-through, while the higher time frames still indicate a persistent downtrend in breadth.
  • From a technical perspective, the current relief rally appears to be a result of the oversold conditions following a 13% correction from recent peaks.
  • The index has immediate support near 23430, followed by 23050; maintaining a close above the last identified support level will be critical in mitigating further declines. Conversely, the level of 23770 presents a significant overhead resistance, and reclaiming this level on a closing basis will likely attract additional bullish momentum.
  • We continue to operate within a challenging monetary environment, characterized by limited trading setups, and it is expected that the ongoing choppiness will persist in the coming week.

To view the detailed report click here to   Download 

Newsletter: 07th February 2025

Strong Quarter for Hero

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US major indices reported net gains on Wednesday after pessimistic sentiments driven by weak corporate earnings were countered by mixed economic data. Amongst the three indices, gains on the Nasdaq were capped on account of the dull earnings of Alphabet, which further raised questions on AI and its ROI amidst the heightened competitive landscape. The Asian peers also continue to hold their ground, with Nikkei and Hang Seng both recording modest gains as the markets continue to track US optimism. On the domestic front, GIFT Nifty indicates a flattish start with a positive bias. We expect the market to be firm, buoyed by positive global market sentiments.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –77,977.28 (-0.10%)

Nifty 50 – 23,576.65 (-0.11%)

Bank Nifty – 50,367.20 (-0.03%)

Dow Jones – 44,748.82 (0.00%)

Nasdaq – 19,786.70 (0.48%)

FTSE – 8,727.28 (1.45%)

Nikkei 225 – 38,838.46 (-0.59%)

Hang Seng – 21,182.72 (1.39%)

Sector: 2/3 Wheelers

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. Q3FY25

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. reported healthy quarterly performance, beating market estimates on profitability counts. Although the overall revenue growth was modest, this was largely anticipated given the sluggish sales volumes during the quarter. The introduction of the Xtreme 125 has partially mitigated the decline in the 110cc segment. The company’s focus on premiumization is positively impacting profitability and is further supported by strong growth in exports. With the recent launches of the Xtreme 250R and Xpulse 210 motorcycles, as well as the Xoom 125 and Xoom 160 scooters, Hero MotoCorp is bolstering its premium motorcycle lineup, improving average selling prices (ASPs) and margins. Additionally, the company is expanding its presence in the scooter segment to leverage the increasing trend of urban mobility. Moving forward, the company is poised for dynamic changes, including plans to spin off its electric vehicle (EV) business and leadership transitions. These changes are expected to bring fresh perspectives and drive innovation. The recent changes in the income tax structure in the budget is likely to boost consumer confidence, especially in rural areas, coinciding with the conclusion of the Rabi sowing season by the end of February, which further bolsters our expectations of an improved demand environment.

Why it Matters:

Hero MotoCorp Supported by strategic initiatives and a continued focus on product innovation, Hero MotoCorp is well-positioned for sustained growth in the upcoming quarters. Management’s insights on demand outlook, the positioning of new releases, and the future pipeline will be key.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

BHARTIARTL – 1703.00 (5.14%)

ULTRACEMCO – 11677.00 (1.74%)

SHRIRAMFIN – 575.85 (1.68%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

BEL – 276.50 (-1.16%)

CIPLA – 1457.25 (-0.97%)

ITC- 432.80 (-1.88%)

Secto: FMCG

ITC Ltd Q3FY25 Result Net profit drops

ITC Ltd. posted a resilient performance in Q3FY25, benefitted by recovery in rural consumption even during challenging period where the company faced issues like economic slowdown due to low urban consumption and rising input cost impacting the company’s margins. The company improved its market position through strategic product differentiation and premiumization. The FMCG cigarette segment showed resilience amid rising costs. On the other hand, the FMCG non-cigarette sector faced challenges primarily due to inflationary pressures and growing competition. The agri business experienced significant growth, driven by leaf tobacco and value-added products, although margins were affected by rising costs. However, the boost to the economy by the government during the recent budget suggest a positive outlook for consumption demand especially in the premium category in the near term. Further, the company has demerged its hotel segment with effect from 1 January 2025 and it has been reported as the ‘Discontinued Operations’ in the Q3FY25 financial results. Post-demerger, ITC will focus on its core cigarette and FMCG businesses, benefiting from a more asset-light structure, improving capital efficiency and returns. This shift is expected to improve ITC’s return ratios substantially and improve profitability, thereby offering an attractive long-term upside. With focus on consumer centricity, purposeful innovation, agility and execution excellence, the company remains confident of navigating the short-term challenges and creating sustained value for all stakeholders. 

Why it Matters:

Implementation of several strategic cost management initiatives in areas such as supply chain optimization, smart procurement and productivity improvement through automation and leveraging new-age technologies, the company is set to maintain its market leadership position and deliver consistent growth for the coming period.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian currencies remained mostly unchanged on Friday, while the U.S. dollar held steady ahead of key job market data that could influence interest rate decisions. The Chinese yuan stayed weak near 7.3 per dollar after reopening from the Lunar New Year holiday. The Japanese yen had a strong week, dropping 2.3% against the dollar on expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates further. Investors are closely watching U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which could impact the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. A strong job report may delay rate cuts, putting pressure on Asian markets. The Indian rupee hovered near record lows amid expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. The Australian dollar showed slight recovery from a recent five-year low, while the Singapore dollar and South Korean won also made small gains. Markets remain cautious due to ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,600

Bank Nifty – 50,400

Nifty 50 – 23,644 (Pivot)

Support – 23,515, 23,427, 23,297

Resistance – 23,732, 23,861, 23,949

Bank Nifty – 50,361 (Pivot)

Support – 50,170, 49,958, 49,766

Resistance – 50,573, 50,765, 50,977

 Have you checked our latest YouTube Video

Did you know?

India's Mutual Fund Industry Sees 40% Growth

The total equity assets under management of India’s domestic mutual fund industry reached ₹33.4 trillion in 2024, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous year, according to Motilal Oswal’s Fund Folio Report.

Newsletter: 06th February 2025

VRL Soars on Q3 Boom

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US major indices reported net gains on Wednesday after pessimistic sentiments driven by weak corporate earnings were countered by mixed economic data. Amongst the three indices, gains on the Nasdaq were capped on account of the dull earnings of Alphabet, which further raised questions on AI and its ROI amidst the heightened competitive landscape. The Asian peers also continue to hold their ground, with Nikkei and Hang Seng both recording modest gains as the markets continue to track US optimism. On the domestic front, GIFT Nifty indicates a flattish start with a positive bias. We expect the market to be firm, buoyed by positive global market sentiments. 

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –78,280.68 (0.01%)

Nifty 50 – 23,698.00 (0.01%)

Bank Nifty – 50,298.80 (-0.09%)

Dow Jones – 44,873.28 (0.71%)

Nasdaq – 19,687.92 (0.17%)

FTSE – 8,623.29 (0.61%)

Nikkei 225 – 39,001.57 (0.44%)

Hang Seng – 20,653.39 (0.28%)

Sector: Logistics

VRL Logistics surges 20% on Strong Q3

VRL Logistics shares surged 20% to ₹559 on February 6 after reporting strong Q3FY25 results. The stock saw heavy trading, with around 8 lakh shares changing hands—much higher than the usual 66,000. Despite this jump, it has remained mostly flat over the past three months. The company’s revenue grew 12% YoY to ₹830 crore, while net profit jumped four times to ₹59 crore. EBITDA rose 78% to ₹172 crore, with margins improving by 800 basis points to 21%. The margin boost came from successful freight hikes, better route planning, and reduced reliance on multiple transshipment hubs. These changes improved vehicle efficiency and overall profitability. VRL expanded its network, adding 39 new branches, and increased capital spending to ₹276 crore in Q3, focusing on property acquisitions in Bengaluru, Mysuru, and Mangaluru. The company’s long-term ICRA credit rating remains stable at A+ (Positive).

Why it Matters:

VRL Logistics’ strong Q3FY25 results, with a 4x jump in profit and 20% stock surge, highlight its improving efficiency and profitability. Strategic freight hikes and route optimizations have boosted margins to 21%. Expansion and higher capital investments signal long-term growth potential.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

DRREDDY – 1248.70 (1.72%)

BPCL – 265.65 (1.68%)

CIPLA – 1458.85 (1.53%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

SHRIRAMFIN – 558.05 (-2.32%)

TITAN – 3442.95 (-1.37%)

TATASTEEL – 132.90 (-1.12%)

Sector: Pharmaceuticals

Zydus Lifesciences surges on strong Q3

Zydus Lifesciences shares rose over 2%  after the company reported a strong Q3FY25 performance. Net profit jumped 30% year-on-year to ₹1,023 crore, driven by strong sales in India and the US. Revenue grew 17% to ₹5,269 crore, compared to ₹4,505 crore last year. The company’s EBITDA increased to ₹1,387 crore from ₹1,102 crore, with margins improving to 26.3% from 24.5%. Zydus credited its growth to a strong US portfolio, market share gains in key therapy segments in India, and strategic expansion in global markets. Additionally, forex gains significantly boosted profits, rising to ₹183 crore from ₹21 crore in Q3FY24. The company remains confident in achieving double-digit growth for FY25 with improved profitability. As of 9:45 AM, Zydus Lifesciences stock was trading at ₹997, up 2.05%, reflecting investor confidence in its continued business expansion and solid financial performance.

Why it Matters:

Zydus Lifesciences’ strong Q3 earnings show solid growth with a 30% profit surge, driven by strong sales in India and the US. Improved margins and higher forex gains indicate strong financial health. The stock’s rise reflects investor confidence in its future performance.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian stock markets rose on Thursday, driven by strong gains in tech stocks following Wall Street’s rally, especially after NVIDIA’s positive AI spending outlook. Major Asian tech firms, including Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp and Sunny Optical, saw their shares surge, lifting China’s Shanghai Composite by 0.8% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng by 0.4%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.3%, with Tokyo Electron and Sony rising, while South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 0.5%, helped by Samsung and SK Hynix. Renesas Electronics soared 12% after strong earnings. However, gains were limited by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, with new Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods set to take effect next week. Singapore’s market gained 0.4%, supported by financial and tech stocks, while Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.7% on mining and tech strength. India’s Nifty 50 remained mostly unchanged, as investors stayed cautious amid global uncertainty.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,650

Bank Nifty – 50,300

Nifty 50 – 23,728 (Pivot)

Support – 23,648, 23,601, 23,521

Resistance – 23,775, 23,854, 23,902

Bank Nifty – 50,360 (Pivot)

Support – 50,198, 50,053, 49,891

Resistance – 50,504, 50,666, 50,811

Did you know?

India's Mutual Fund Industry Sees 40% Growth

The total equity assets under management of India’s domestic mutual fund industry reached ₹33.4 trillion in 2024, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous year, according to Motilal Oswal’s Fund Folio Report.

Newsletter: 05th February 2025

Titan Shines with Growth

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The Wall Street indices inched up during their trade yesterday after participants seemed to be optimistic about a breakthrough in the US-China trade war after the administration halted on implementation of tariffs on its neighbouring countries.  In contrast, the Asian market saw mixed results; Nikkei faced selling pressure after a strong start, while Hang Seng initially rose modestly but later declined due to a drop in tech stocks. The Domestic bourses are expected pick up on the trend of US markets, as the GIFT Nifty indicates a strong start for the market. The optimism is likely to be further boosted by the heightened expectation of a rate cut by RBI in its upcoming MPC meet this week.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –78,551.89 (-0.05%)

Nifty 50 – 23,759.05 (0.08%)

Bank Nifty – 50,323.20 (0.33%)

Dow Jones – 44,513.56 (-0.10%)

Nasdaq – 19,657.59 (1.37%)

FTSE – 8,570.77 (-0.15%)

Nikkei 225 – 38,765.46 (-0.08%)

Hang Seng – 20,663.39 (-0.61%)

Sector: Gems & Jewellery

Titan Company Ltd. Q3FY25

Titan’s diversified portfolio of jewellery, watches, and eyecare businesses has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 25% YoY, driven by robust demand for studded jewellery, watches, and eyecare products. The jewellery segment saw its strongest quarter for the current fiscal due to wedding seasons. During the quarter, Tanishq opened 11 new stores (net), while Mia added 13 stores in the domestic market. Additionally, the company’s emerging businesses, such as Taneira and SKINN fragrances, offer potential opportunities for expansion. During the quarter, its emerging business expanded its store by opening its first IRTH store in Mumbai, followed by a store opening in Chennai; Taneira opened one new store in Salem, Tamil Nadu, bringing the total store count to 82 stores covering 42 cities. However, the profitability of the company was impacted due to the custom duty-related losses on the inventory (held at the time of the duty change), which have been fully realised in this quarter.

Why it Matters:

The company continues to focus on expanding its market share and investing in capabilities across all its business segments. Looking ahead, with the growing trend of premiumisation and increased consumption in the economy post-budget, we remain constructive about the company’s business prospects, driven by product innovation and branding with a single-minded focus on satisfying the ever-evolving needs of lifestyle consumers.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

BPCL – 264.45 (3.32%)

ONGC – 260.80 (2.64%)

INDUSINDBK – 1072.20 (2.39%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

ASIANPAINT – 2252.00 (-4.35%)

NESTLEIND – 2248.80 (-2.20%)

TITAN – 3537.00 (-1.69%)

Sector: Telecom

  MTNL Soars 20% on Asset Sale Plans

MTNL shares hit a 20% upper circuit at ₹57.21 on February 5, driven by optimism over its asset monetization plans for FY26. This follows a 7% rise in the previous session after DIPAM Secretary Arunish Chawla reaffirmed the government’s commitment to monetizing MTNL and BSNL assets to clear liabilities. Despite being classified as an NPA last year, MTNL gained momentum after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a broadband scheme for government schools and health centers in Budget 2025. The telecom sector rallied, with the BSE Telecom index up 1.4%. However, the government’s telecom revenue is projected to decline by 33% to ₹82,443 crore in FY26 due to lower spectrum usage charges and deferred spectrum payments. At 10:20 am, MTNL was trading at ₹56.6, up 18.8%, with a 17% gain over the past three months.

Why it Matters:

MTNL’s 20% surge signals strong investor confidence in its asset monetization plan and government support. Despite high debt and past struggles, policy-driven initiatives could help revitalize the company and the broader telecom sector. However, the expected 33% decline in government telecom revenue raises concerns about long-term sustainability.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday as Chinese stocks fell due to rising U.S.-China trade tensions, while investors analyzed inflation data from South Korea and the Philippines. China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 0.4%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1% after China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods following Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The risk of a prolonged trade dispute kept markets uncertain. Japan’s Nikkei remained flat, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.6%, and Indonesia’s index dropped 0.5%. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.1% despite inflation crossing 2% for the first time in five months, fueled by AI-driven e-commerce stocks. The Philippines’ inflation stayed at 2.9%, supporting the central bank’s plan for rate cuts, boosting the PSEi Composite by 1.7%. U.S. stock futures declined as tech stocks fell after Alphabet’s weak earnings. Overall, trade tensions, inflation trends, and central bank actions shaped market sentiment.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,600

Bank Nifty – 50,000

Nifty 50 – 23,641 (Pivot)

Support – 23,520, 23,302, 23,181

Resistance – 23,860, 23,981, 24,199

Bank Nifty – 49,949 (Pivot)

Support – 49,691, 49,224, 48,967

Resistance – 50,415, 50,673, 51,139

Did you know?

India's Mutual Fund Industry Sees 40% Growth

The total equity assets under management of India’s domestic mutual fund industry reached ₹33.4 trillion in 2024, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous year, according to Motilal Oswal’s Fund Folio Report.

Newsletter: 04th February 2025

Tata Chemicals Faces Losses

Aaj Ka Bazaar

Yesterday’s US market continued to show losses, though the extent was limited after the initial negative sentiment over global trade was eased by the Trump administration halting tariffs on Canada and Mexico, while maintaining them on China. The Asian markets reflected this positivity, with a notable surge in the Nikkei and similar optimism in the Hang Seng index as concerns over tariffs diminished. On the domestic front, Indian markets are expected to open on a positive note, buoyed by favorable global sentiments. GIFT Nifty indicates a strong start, and we anticipate that the market will sustain its upward momentum throughout the day, following a lack of positive triggers in previous sessions.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –77,736.24 (0.71%)

Nifty 50 – 23,519.10 (0.68%)

Bank Nifty – 49,627.15 (0.85%)

Dow Jones – 44,485.04 (0.14%)

Nasdaq – 19,405.61 (-1.13%

FTSE – 8,583.56 (-1.05%)

Nikkei 225 – 38,960.88 (1.14%)

Hang Seng – 20,622.98 (1.99%)

Sector: Commodity Chemicals

Tata Chemicals Reports Loss, Stock Falls

Tata Chemicals’ stock dropped over 4% after the company reported a net loss of Rs 21 crore for Q3, reversing the profit of Rs 194 crore from the same quarter last year. The decline in profits was mainly due to lower soda ash prices and a one-time exceptional loss of Rs 70 crore, which was linked to plant closures and employee termination costs in the UK. Revenue also fell 3.8% to Rs 3,590 crore, and the operating margin shrank to 12.1% from 14.5% a year ago. The company faced higher fixed costs in the US due to a production outage and lower demand for soda ash. Tata Chemicals’ debt increased, with gross debt rising to Rs 6,722 crore and net debt reaching Rs 5,329 crore. The CEO expects short-term challenges to continue but anticipates improvement over time due to sustainability trends.

Why it Matters:

Tata Chemicals’ Q3 loss highlights ongoing challenges, including lower prices and higher costs, affecting profitability. The stock drop reflects investor concerns about the company’s financial stability. Increased debt could impact its future growth and ability to recover in the short term.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

HINDALCO – 594.20 (3.51%)

BEL – 282.45 (3.03%)

ONGC – 255.55 (2.63%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

TRENT – 5865.40 (-4.40%)

HINDUNILVR – 2414.10 (-1.14%)

BRITANNIA – 5050.25 (-1.08%)

Sector: NBFC

Bajaj Finance Hits Record High on Optimism

Shares of Bajaj Finance rose more than 5%, reaching a new all-time high, and are up over 21% this year, following strong quarterly results for December. Investors are optimistic, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) later this week, which could further support consumption, especially after the tax relief in the recent budget. The company has improved its loan portfolio, reducing customers with multiple unsecured loans to pre-Covid levels, and expects credit costs to stay below 2% in FY26. Bajaj Finance’s strong performance in Q3FY25 included an 18% increase in net profit, driven by a rise in assets under management. Analysts remain positive, with some setting price targets above Rs 8,000 per share. The company also announced a leadership transition plan, as the current MD’s tenure ends in March, though he will stay involved in the strategic direction.

Why it Matters:

Bajaj Finance’s strong performance and expectations of an RBI rate cut drive optimism, boosting investor confidence. The company’s improved asset quality and growth potential suggest solid long-term prospects. This makes it an attractive investment in 2025, especially with its leadership transition and market momentum.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian currencies made a mild recovery on Tuesday as the dollar lost some ground after U.S. President Donald Trump delayed plans to impose trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico. However, the gains in regional currencies were limited due to the ongoing 10% tariffs on China, which were still set to take effect later in the day. Chinese markets were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, but the yuan showed wild fluctuations in offshore trade. Despite some recovery in Asian currencies, concerns about high U.S. interest rates lingered, keeping regional markets under pressure. The Japanese yen rose slightly, while the South Korean won remained unchanged. The Indian rupee stayed close to a record high against the dollar. Investors are also waiting for the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data this week, which could influence expectations about interest rates, while the Fed’s stance on inflation and the economy continues to impact the dollar.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,500

Bank Nifty – 50,000

Nifty 50 – 23,321 (Pivot)

Support – 23,261 23,161, 23,101

Resistance – 23,421, 23,481, 23,580

Bank Nifty – 49,163 (Pivot)

Support – 48,953, 48,695, 48,485

Resistance – 49,420, 49,630, 49,815

Did you know?

India's Mutual Fund Industry Sees 40% Growth

The total equity assets under management of India’s domestic mutual fund industry reached ₹33.4 trillion in 2024, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous year, according to Motilal Oswal’s Fund Folio Report.

 Check Union Budget 2025-26: Market Impact & Insights with Manish Chowdhury

Weekly Report: 02nd February 2025

Weekly Trend Report

Week Gone By

The key equity indices remained volatile on Budget Day, ending near the flat line despite key announcements by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Union Budget 2025-26.  Despite this, broader markets traded mixed. With the exception of two day’s decline, the benchmark indices rallied for four consecutive days. The Economic Survey presented in Parliament has projected that India will achieve GDP growth of 6.3-6.8% in the financial year 2025-26, supported by strong fundamentals, disciplined fiscal consolidation, and steady private consumption. In the week ended on Saturday, 01 February 2025, The Nifty 50 ended slightly lower by 0.11% at 23,482, while the Sensex remained nearly unchanged at 77,505. The Nifty Smallcap 100 index edged up 0.12% to 16,560, while the Nifty Midcap 100 index declined 0.42%, closing at 53,486. Meanwhile, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index managed to stay positive, rising 0.41% to settle at 16,979.

Week Ahead

Indian markets closed the special Budget Day trading session on February 1 with little movement as investors responded to the Union Budget 2025’s capital expenditure figures. The current Q3 earnings season will continue to dominate market attention as some of the major companies are slated to announce their third-quarter earnings in the next week. On February 04, data pertaining to job openings that are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) of the US will be announced.  Further, The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) rate-setting committee is scheduled to meet later this week (February 5-7), with analysts largely anticipating the central bank to introduce rate cuts—the first in over four years. Further, The Bank of England holds its latest policy-setting meeting this week and is widely expected to cut interest rates and hint at more reductions to come as the UK economy stagnates.

Technical Overview
  • The benchmark index began the trading week on a panic note, opening 152 points lower, which led to extreme oversold conditions.
  • However, the markets quickly rebounded following the announcement of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) purchasing G-sec securities worth Rs. 60,000 crore, a move intended to ease liquidity measures in the equity segment.
  • This sparked a pre-budget rally of 721 points. On Saturday, the index closed with a sense of indecision after the budget                announcement.
  • Ultimately, the index finished the trading week 389 points higher on a weekly basis, forming an outside bar candle pattern, with most sectoral and broader indices showing an improvement in their negative momentum for the third consecutive week.
  • Subsequently, the VIX cooled off 15.8% 14.09.
  • The pre-budget rally has resulted in a notable recovery in intermediate breadth, as over 50% of NSE stocks are now trading above 10DMA.
  • However, less than half of NSE stocks continue to trade above 20DMA. Additionally, the figures for 50 and 200 DMA over the past 7 and 4 consecutive weeks serve as pressing indicators, and a failure to improve in the near future could warrant caution.
  • From a technical standpoint the index has formed an outside bar on the weekly timeframe.
  • The formation of outside bars, particularly when the closing is relatively robust, indicates that buyers have prevailed. Consequently, when this pattern occurs during a pullback, it enhances the likelihood of diminishing declines.
  • As a result, support levels have been elevated from 22786 to 23050, with immediate support positioned near 23430. Sustaining above this zone could enable the index to gain bullish strength and test the 50 and 200 DMA, currently trading near 23809 and 24000.

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Newsletter: 01st February 2025

Slower Growth Hits IndusInd

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US markets closed the week on a down note after the White House announced that President Donald Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports and 10% tariffs on Chinese imports. This negative sentiment stemmed from concerns about the tariffs’ impact on the economy and inflation. Domestically, as the country gears up for the Union Budget, the markets are expected to open Saturday’s trading session positively, as anticipation towards the budget is likely overpowering the influence of the US dec;ine. Throughout the day, participants will closely follow Nirmala Sitharaman’s eighth Union Budget speech, which is anticipated to drive market momentum. We remain optimistic about the budget and expect the market to continue its rally from yesterday.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex -77,698.74 (0.26%)

Nifty 50 – 23,567.40 (0.25%)

Bank Nifty – 49,773.55 (0.38%)

Dow Jones – 44,544.66 (-0.75%)

Nasdaq – 19,623.27 (-0.30%)

FTSE – 8,673.96 (0.31%)

Nikkei 225 – 39,572.13 (0.00%)

Hang Seng – 20,255.11 (0.00%)

Sector: Banking

IndusInd Bank Ltd. Q3FY25

Private lender IndusInd Bank reported disappointing performance in Q3FY25, primarily due to slower loan growth, elevated slippages, and increased credit costs. These developments were expected, as management has been cautious in disbursing loans, particularly in the MFI segment, where the bank is the second largest lender. This cautious approach has contributed to sluggish credit growth during the quarter. The bank is gradually reducing its exposure in the MFI sector. Vehicle financing activity exhibited muted growth, but there are expectations for improvement in Q4FY25. In previous quarter, management projected a growth of 16%, so it will be important to monitor whether this guidance has been revised in light of recent performance. NIMs experienced compression due to a decline in the high-yielding MFI loan segment and rising deposit costs. However, there is optimism that NIMs will improve if growth in the microfinance sector resumes. In terms of asset quality, both GNPA and NNPA deteriorated, and Return on Assets also declined, indicating increased stress.

Why it Matters:

Deposit growth remained strong, driven by retail deposits. Overall, IndusInd Bank reported a weak quarter in Q3FY25. Moving forward, we will closely monitor management’s strategy regarding credit costs and to ensure that NIMs and slippages show improvement.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

ITCHOTELS – 166.80 (2.36%)

ULTRACEMCO – 11749.65 (2.28%)

INDUSINDBK – 1013.80 (2.28%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

ONGC – 258.70 (-1.48%)

HEROMOTCO – 4283.00 (-1.29%)

NESTLEIND – 2290.05 (-1.00%)

Sector: Banking

IndusInd Bank Ltd. Q3FY25

Private lender IndusInd Bank reported disappointing performance in Q3FY25, primarily due to slower loan growth, elevated slippages, and increased credit costs. These developments were expected, as management has been cautious in disbursing loans, particularly in the MFI segment, where the bank is the second largest lender. This cautious approach has contributed to sluggish credit growth during the quarter. The bank is gradually reducing its exposure in the MFI sector. Vehicle financing activity exhibited muted growth, but there are expectations for improvement in Q4FY25. In previous quarter, management projected a growth of 16%, so it will be important to monitor whether this guidance has been revised in light of recent performance. NIMs experienced compression due to a decline in the high-yielding MFI loan segment and rising deposit costs. However, there is optimism that NIMs will improve if growth in the microfinance sector resumes. In terms of asset quality, both GNPA and NNPA deteriorated, and Return on Assets also declined, indicating increased stress.

Why it Matters:

On a positive note, deposit growth remained strong, driven by retail deposits. Overall, IndusInd Bank reported a weak quarter in Q3FY25. Moving forward, we will closely monitor management’s strategy regarding credit costs and to ensure that NIMs and slippages show improvement.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

In the United States, major stock indexes are showing mixed results as investors digest the latest earnings reports and economic data. The S&P 500 is up slightly, boosted by strong performances in tech stocks, while the Dow Jones is facing pressure from weaker-than-expected results in the industrial sector. In Europe, stock markets are down, with concerns over inflation and higher interest rates in the eurozone weighing on investor sentiment. The German DAX and UK’s FTSE 100 are both seeing declines as investors react to slower economic growth forecasts. In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei has seen a rise, driven by a rebound in tech stocks and investor optimism ahead of a major government stimulus package. Meanwhile, China’s Shanghai Composite is experiencing volatility as concerns about economic recovery continue to affect investor confidence. In emerging markets, Brazil’s Bovespa index has gained momentum due to stronger commodity prices.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,250

Bank Nifty – 49,300

 

Nifty 50 – 23,444 (Pivot)

Support – 23,341 23,174, 23,072

Resistance – 23,611, 23,713, 23,780

 

Bank Nifty – 49,431 (Pivot)

Support – 49,187, 48,788, 48,544

Resistance – 49,830, 50,044, 50,473

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

Have you checked our latest YouTube Video

Newsletter: 31st January 2025

L&T Sees Strong Growth

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US indices ended up higher yesterday after beating the volatility in the market amidst the slew of key corporate earnings. The sentiments were largely supported by the upbeat commentary from Tesla, which helped mitigate the concerning sentiments stemming from the dull outlook of Microsoft. The Asian market also started the day, supported by the bias from the relatively positive US market. On the commodity front, Gold touched the mark of Rs. 81,000/10g amidst a slowdown in trade in the domestic market, led by heightened anticipation of an upward revision of custom duty on the metal in the Union Budget and tariff concerns from the Trump administration. The dollar also continued to trade higher amidst tariff concerns. The domestic markets are likely to open on a negative note as per the cue from GIFT Nifty, drifting away from the global peer sentiments. The markets are expected to remain highly volatile, as key blue chip earnings are likely to influence the market, in addition to expectations from the Union Budget.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –76,937.97 (0.24%)

Nifty 50 – 23,312.30 (0.27%)

Bank Nifty – 49,187.40 (-0.25%)

Dow Jones – 44,976.97 (0.20%)

Nasdaq – 19,680.70 (0.25%)

FTSE – 8,646.88 (1.03%)

Nikkei 225 – 39,652.63 (0.35%)

Hang Seng – 20,255.11 (0.00%)

Sector: Construction

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Q3FY25

Engineering giant Larsen & Toubro (L&T) delivered a decent operating and financial performance during the quarter. While the company did not surpass street estimates, its robust order book, record-high order inflows, and ramp-up in execution momentum bode well for future growth. The company anticipates that the Union Budget will prioritize infrastructure development, technology adoption, skill enhancement, and energy transition policies, which could further drive economic momentum. L&T stands to benefit from the government’s continued push towards infrastructure developments and economic growth.

Why it Matters:

The company has been performing well with improved operational efficiency and sustained digital adoption. Its strong near-term order prospects and confidence in maintaining growth momentum position it for continued success in the coming quarters.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

LT – 3560.00 (4.06%)

TATACONSUM – 1005.35 (4.00%)

BEL – 286.40 (2.74%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

ITCHOTELS – 158.30 (-3.02%)

INFY – 1598.00 (-2.61%)

BAJAJFINSV – 1713.40 (-1.82%)

Sector: FMCG

Tata Consumer Products Ltd. Q3FY25

Tata Consumer Products Limited, a Tata Group engaged in the business of food and beverages, reported healthy revenue growth in Q3FY25, mainly led by its strong operational performance in the Indian market. During the quarter, the consolidated revenue increased by 17% YoY.  Its beverages business reported a revenue growth of 9%, with tea volumes growing at 7% YoY and strong momentum in coffee continued with 28% revenue growth. The Salt business revenue grew by 7% driven by pricing hike that company took in October 2024 and modest volume growth of 1%. The value added salt segment continued its strong momentum and reported a 31% revenue growth. The company continues to strengthen its market share in salt business. The company’s recently acquired Capital Foods and Organic India have created a momentum with combined revenues crossing Rs. 850 crores. Further, Tata Starbucks, which aims to have 1000 stores by 2028, added 16 new stores and entered 4 new cities bringing total stores count to 473 across 74 cities, reinforcing its position as India’s largest organized cafe operator. Internationally, the company reported a robust revenue growth of 8%, due to strong performance in the UK market. On consolidated level, EBITDA margins were impacted by 234 bps, due to inflation in India tea cost. However, calibrated price increases across tea portfolio have helped the company to partially offset this significant increase in tea cost. 

Why it Matters:

The management is strategically focusing on expanding its market share by reaching new geographies, exploring new distribution channels like e-commerce, split route and launching new innovative products and smaller SKUs. Overall, Tata Consumer’s domestic business is poised for further growth, especially in the tea and salt segments which commands significant market share.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian stock markets remained mostly stable on Thursday as investors reacted to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged with a cautious outlook. Tech stocks stayed under pressure due to mixed signals on artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, Australian markets outperformed, reaching record highs on expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February. Concerns over potential U.S. trade tariffs under Trump’s policies added uncertainty. Trading volumes were low due to Lunar New Year holidays in major Asian markets like China, Hong Kong, and South Korea. Japan’s stock indexes stayed flat as tech losses balanced gains in domestic sectors, with SoftBank declining further after reports of a $25 billion investment in OpenAI. Australian stocks gained on rate cut bets, though core inflation remains high. India’s Nifty 50 was set for a slight positive open, while Philippine markets dipped after weak GDP data.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,250

Bank Nifty – 49,300

Nifty 50 – 23,236 (Pivot)

Support – 23,151, 23,054, 22,968

Resistance – 23,334, 23,419, 23,517

Bank Nifty – 49,256 (Pivot)

Support – 49,087, 48,862, 48,692

Resistance – 49,481, 49,651, 49,875

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

Have you checked our latest YouTube Video

Newsletter: 30th January 2025

Tata Motors: Mixed Q3 Signals

Aaj Ka Bazaar

The US market mainly moved lower on Wednesday, partly offsetting the notable rebound seen in the previous session. The lower close on Wall Street came after the Federal Reserve announced its widely expected decision to leave interest rates unchanged following its first monetary policy meeting of 2025. The decision to leave rates unchanged came as the Fed noted inflation remains somewhat elevated and reiterated its strong commitment to returning inflation to its 2% objective. Asian markets were mixed in thin holiday trade this morning as investors waited for clarity on the Trump administration’s plans for trade policy. Indian shares look set to open on a muted Thursday as investors react to a hawkish Fed policy statement and a mixed set of earnings results from Tata Motors and Bajaj Finance. Investors also await cues from next week’s MPC meeting. Following recent measures to address tight liquidity conditions in the banking system, economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to commence the rate easing cycle with a 25-basis point rate cut in the February 7 policy meeting.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex –76,820.98 (0.36%)

Nifty 50 – 22,026.00 (0.30%)

Bank Nifty – 48,941.10 (0.15%)

Dow Jones – 44,857.32 (0.32%)

Nasdaq – 19,630.73 (-0.52%)

FTSE – 8,557.81 (0.28%)

Nikkei 225 – 39,425.04 (-0.02%)

Sector: Automobile

Tata Motors Ltd. Q3FY25 Outlook

Tata Motors experienced a tepid quarter during the fiscal, falling short on expectations on all fronts. Despite this, there’s a silver lining with gradual recovery in financial performance on a sequential basis. The top-line growth was largely supported by the robust contribution of JLR, which had shown sluggishness in the previous quarter. Improved wholesale demand post the supply disruption was the key driver for improved revenues, further bolstered by accretive margins for the segment due to an improved mix and lower D&A (Depreciation & Amortization). However, the commercial vehicle (CV) and passenger vehicle (PV) segments partially offset these gains, led by lower volumes and an unfavorable product mix. The overall profitability was hindered by a rise in the raw material (RM) basket, increased inventory costs, and miscellaneous expenses. On the brighter side, margins across segments showed a positive recovery on a sequential basis, reflecting the company’s effective cost control measures.

Why it Matters:

Tata Motors. Key uncertainties related to demand in the US and China warrant close monitoring. Additionally, management’s commentary on the global demand scenario for JLR will be crucial for future performance.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

BAJFINANCE – 7995.85 (3.04%)

INFY – 1840.10 (2.78%)

HINDALCO – 599.85 (2.70%)

 

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

TATAMOTORS – 701.05 (-6.84%)

INFY – 1866.90 (-0.76%)

ITCHOTLES – 171.30 (-0.32%)

Sector: NBFC

Bajaj Finance Ltd. Q3FY25 Result

India’s leading NBFC, Bajaj Finance, showed strong performance in Q3FY25, marked by significant growth in assets under management and an 18% YoY increase in net profit, surpassing estimates. The company experienced a highest number of new loan bookings and a steady customer acquisitions during the quarter. Bajaj Finance holds a 7% overall market share and a dominant 37% share in the NBFC personal loans segment. However, in Q3FY25, there was some deterioration in asset quality and an increase in provisions.  The industry is currently navigating a credit cycle with rising credit costs, although Bajaj Finance’s credit cost is expected to stabilize in the near term. The company has ended co-branded partnerships with RBL Bank and DBS Bank, and management commentary on these will be closely monitored. 

Why it Matters:

Strategic partnership with Airtel and its transformation into a Finance + AI (FINAI) company, by integrating AI-driven processes across operations, are expected to enhance performance. AUM growth remains strong, and return ratios are within management’s guidance. Overall, Bajaj Finance delivered strong performance with expectations for improved profitability and asset quality in the upcoming quarters. 

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Asian stock markets remained mostly stable on Thursday as investors reacted to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged with a cautious outlook. Tech stocks stayed under pressure due to mixed signals on artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, Australian markets outperformed, reaching record highs on expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February. Concerns over potential U.S. trade tariffs under Trump’s policies added uncertainty. Trading volumes were low due to Lunar New Year holidays in major Asian markets like China, Hong Kong, and South Korea. Japan’s stock indexes stayed flat as tech losses balanced gains in domestic sectors, with SoftBank declining further after reports of a $25 billion investment in OpenAI. Australian stocks gained on rate cut bets, though core inflation remains high. India’s Nifty 50 was set for a slight positive open, while Philippine markets dipped after weak GDP data.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 23,200

Bank Nifty – 49,300

Nifty 50 – 23,107 (Pivot)

Support – 23,031, 22,900, 22,825

Resistance – 23,238, 23,314, 23,445 

Bank Nifty – 49,071 (Pivot)

Support – 48,943, 48,721, 48,594

Resistance – 49,293, 49,421, 49,643

Did you know?

2 Million Indian Travelled to USA

The number of Indians who travelled to the United States in the first 11 months of 2024, up 26% from the same period last year.

Have you checked our latest YouTube Video