Newsletter: 08th May 2025

Lupin Targets $395M Market

Aaj Ka Bazaar

Wall Street indices ended higher after the U.S. Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates unchanged. Fed officials expressed confidence in maintaining the current policy stance, pointing to a still-low unemployment rate and higher inflation. Chairman Powell emphasised the same on Wednesday, stating that the potential drawbacks of waiting for more clarity are relatively minor. Meanwhile, Asian markets were subdued following the Fed’s decision, with the GIFT Nifty trading lower, signaling a weak start for Indian equities. Investor sentiment is also being dampened by escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, as well as caution surrounding ongoing trade discussions between China and the United States. Additionally, investors will closely monitor Q4 earnings from key companies, including Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, and Titan, which could influence market direction.

Markets Around Us

BSE Sensex 80,697.58 (-0.06%)

Nifty 5024,379.70 (-0.14%)

Bank Nifty54,668.20 (0.10%)

Dow Jones41,353.03 (0.58%)

Nasdaq 17,738.16 (0.27%)

FTSE 8,559.33 (-0.45%)

Nikkei 22536,890.06 (0.30%)

Hang Seng 22,941.91 (1.09%)

Sector: Pharma

Lupin Debuts Seizure Drug in US

Lupin Limited has launched eslicarbazepine acetate tablets in the US after securing approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its abbreviated new drug application (ANDA). The product, available in 200 mg, 400 mg, 600 mg, and 800 mg strengths, is the generic equivalent of Sumitomo Pharma America’s Aptiom and is indicated for the treatment of partial-onset seizures in patients aged four years and above. Lupin is among the first ANDA applicants for the drug and is eligible for 180 days of shared generic exclusivity in the US market. This exclusivity period often provides a competitive edge by limiting the number of generic competitors in the initial phase of commercialisation. According to IQVIA MAT data for March 2025, the reference listed drug (RLD), Aptiom, generated estimated annual sales of $395 million in the US. Last month, Lupin launched gTolvaptan (the generic version of Jynarque) in the US, as Otsuka’s exclusivity comes to an end. The company will enjoy a 180-day sole generic exclusivity, potentially extending further, and is expected to remain the only generic player for most of FY26.

Why it Matters:

Lupin’s launch of eslicarbazepine acetate in the US strengthens its neurology portfolio and positions it as a key early entrant in a $395 million market. With 180-day shared generic exclusivity, Lupin gains a crucial competitive edge during the initial phase of commercialization. This move follows the successful launch of gTolvaptan, reinforcing Lupin’s aggressive push into high-value, high-barrier generics in the US.

 NIFTY 50 GAINERS

TATAMOTORS – 697.90 (2.59%)

COALINDIA – 389.45 (1.60%)

ADANIPORTS– 1355.00 (1.26%)

NIFTY 50 LOSERS

ETERNAL – 231.86 (-2.13%)

TATACONSUM – 1127.60 (-1.61%)

ITC – 424.30 (-1.59)

Sector : Oil, Gas & Consumable fuel

Coal India Q4FY25 Profit Climbs, Revenue Slip

Coal India delivered a mixed but slightly positive performance in Q4FY25. The annual decline in revenue highlights ongoing top-line pressure, possibly due to weaker pricing or volume trends. Operational efficiencies boosted PAT during the quarter. However, the dip in coal production and near-flat offtake raises concerns about volume growth. The company’s ability to post higher profits despite volume softness reflects resilience, but future growth may depend on reversing the production trend. While Coal India’s fundamentals remain solid, supported by strong cash flows and effective cost management, operational headwinds persist. The sequential dip in margins, coupled with muted production and offtake volumes, indicates near-term challenges. We suggest that investors remain wary, keeping a close watch on volume recovery and input cost trends.

Why it Matters:

Coal India’s Q4FY25 results reflect resilience amid operational headwinds, with improved profitability despite muted production and offtake. However, declining volumes and margin pressure raise caution for future growth. Investors should monitor volume recovery and input cost trends closely.

Desh Duniya Bazaar

Around the World

Most Asian currencies remained stable on Thursday as traders awaited clarity from upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. The U.S. dollar stayed strong after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signaled no rate cuts in the near future, putting pressure on Asian currencies. Market sentiment was cautious due to rising military tensions between India and Pakistan. The Chinese yuan dipped slightly even as both countries confirmed trade discussions in Switzerland, with expectations of a U.S.-China deal remaining low. The Japanese yen and South Korean won gained modestly, while the Singapore dollar was flat. The Australian dollar recovered some losses, and the Indian rupee weakened slightly after geopolitical tensions spiked. The Taiwan dollar dropped after volatile moves, but the country stands to gain from any positive outcome in U.S.-China trade relations. Overall, uncertainty over trade, inflation, and interest rates is keeping Asian markets in a tight range, with traders closely watching for any major updates.

Option Traders Corner

Max Pain

Nifty 50 – 24400

Bank Nifty – 54500

Nifty 50 – 24361 (Pivot)

Support – 24,273, 24,131, 24,043

Resistance – 24,502, 24,590, 24,732

Bank Nifty – 54405 (Pivot)

Support – 54,125, 53,640, 53,361

Resistance – 54,890, 55,169, 55,654

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Did you know?

India’s Retail Investor Surge: Market Participation Hits Record Highs in 2024

India’s stock market has seen a 36% rise in retail participation, with over 50 million investors active by 2024. This surge is driven by increased financial literacy, digital trading platforms, and government initiatives. Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) have also gained popularity, with monthly contributions hitting ₹14,000 crore in early 2025. These trends reflect growing confidence in India’s equity markets.

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