Weekly Trend Report
- 01st Dec 2025
Week Gone By
Indian equities ended the latest week broadly positive but volatile, with benchmark indices grinding higher while mid- and small-caps underperformed, and global markets showed a cautious risk-on bias aided by strong macro data and softer rate-cut expectations rather than outright fear. The Nifty 50 and Sensex gained around 0.6–0.8% over the week, helped by buying on dips and domestic flows, even as the rupee weakened to fresh lows and FIIs stayed choppy. Midcaps and smallcaps lagged the large-cap benchmarks, reflecting some profit-taking and a shift toward defensives and quality names after an extended outperformance stretch. On the macro side, markets reacted to continued FII selling in November, rupee weakness near record lows, and positioning ahead of key data releases, but domestic institutions and retail investors provided a stabilising bid.
Week Ahead
Q2 FY26 GDP data released on November 28 showed real GDP growth of about 8.2% year-on-year, the fastest in six quarters, reinforcing the “strong growth, easing inflation” narrative and supporting a constructive medium-term equity view. In the coming sessions, traders will watch follow-through reaction to the GDP print, high-frequency indicators (IIP, PMI, credit growth) and any commentary on the proposed India–US trade deal that aims to materially lift bilateral trade. Expect continued sensitivity to FII flows (still net negative YTD) and currency moves; any further rupee pressure or spike in global yields could cap upside in rate-sensitive and import-heavy sectors
Technical Overview
- The Nifty 50 index has successfully registered a fresh all-time high of 26,310.45 this week. This confirms that the previous V-shaped recovery has transitioned into a new impulse leg, entering blue-sky territory where price discovery takes place.
- The index has decisively closed the week above the critical breakout level of 26,125. This previous double-top resistance has now been breached, validating the strength of the current bullish trend.
- On the daily chart, the index is witnessing a healthy consolidation near the highs. After a vertical rally, this pause allows the short-term moving averages to catch up with the price, creating a sustainable base for the next move up.
- The 15-minute and hourly charts show a “Flag and Pole” type formation developing near the highs. This is typically a bullish continuation pattern, suggesting that once this consolidation resolves, the uptrend should resume.
- The immediate hurdle is the fresh all-time high of 26,310. A breakout above this level pushes the index further into blue-sky territory, opening a clear path toward the psychological and technical extension target of 26,500 – 26,550.
- The zone between 26,100 and 26,125 has now undergone a polarity flip, transforming from a major resistance ceiling into the immediate support floor. Bulls are expected to defend this level on any intraday dips. A sustained close below this level will likely trigger a deeper profit-booking slide to 25,800 – 25,850.
- The daily MACD remains in a strong buy mode with the signal lines diverging upwards above the zero line. The histogram continues to show positive momentum, indicating that the trend is backed by strength.
- The daily RSI is trending comfortably in the bullish zone. It is strong but has effectively avoided extreme overbought territory during this consolidation, suggesting there is still room for further upside.
- The Parabolic SAR indicator continues to print dots below the price candles on the daily timeframe, confirming that the positional trend remains firmly on the upside.
- Conclusion:
The market remains in a robust bullish structure, having conquered the previous peaks to set a new record high of 26,310. The current price action represents a constructive consolidation above the breakout zone. As long as the 26,100 – 26,125 support level holds, the path of least resistance is up. The strategy remains “buy on dips” with a view towards higher targets in uncharted territory, likely aiming for the psychological 26,500 mark next.
