Weekly Trend Report
- 24th Nov 2025
Week Gone By
The Indian equity market ended the week with modest gains, supported by the RBI’s trade relief measures for exporters. However, sentiment was tempered by October’s wider trade deficit and a sharp contraction in exports. PMI data signalled continued economic expansion, though manufacturing momentum showed signs of moderation. In the week ended on Friday, 21 November 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex added 669.14 points or 0.79% to settle at 85,231.92. The Nifty 50 index rallied 158.1 points or 0.61% to settle at 26,068.15. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 1.30% to close at 46,655.71. The BSE Small-Cap slipped 1.30% to end at 52,011.66. On the economic front, India’s exports contracted 11.8% to $34.38 billion in October, showed government data released on Monday. Imports jumped 16.63% to $76.06 billion. The country’s trade deficit stood at $41.68 billion during the reporting month.
Week Ahead
Indian markets enter the week ahead with a cautiously optimistic tone. Domestically, India’s flash HSBC Composite PMI slipped to 59.9, dragged down by manufacturing (dropping to a nine-month low of 57.4), hinting at a loss of momentum despite still-strong services demand. Policymakers may face renewed pressure to support growth as inflation eases to record lows, fueling expectations of a further RBI rate cut. On the trade front, ongoing U.S-tariff discussions continue: despite 50% U.S. duties, India’s drop in exports has been more moderate, giving government room to negotiate, especially with signals of a potential rollback. Meanwhile, China’s economy shows strains — weak consumption, slowing industrial output, and its growth now projected at 4.8% by IMF — which could dampen demand for commodities and weigh on global sentiment.
Technical Overview
- The Nifty 50 index has completed a remarkable V-shaped recovery on the daily chart, fully negating the previous week’s bearish failed breakout signal. This aggressive buying indicates strong underlying demand and a resumption of the primary uptrend.
- The index has decisively filled and reclaimed the bearish gap zone that was created during the prior fall. This zone has now flipped from resistance to a strong immediate support base.
- This week’s candle on the weekly chart is a robust bullish candle closing near its high of 26,068. This confirms that the bulls have regained total control on the higher timeframes and are poised to challenge the all-time highs.
- The price is currently testing the critical supply zone near 26,125. The daily chart shows a minor upper wick on Friday’s candle, indicating some expected profit-booking at this double-top resistance level.
- Volume participation has been healthy during this recovery rally, validating the price action. The buying has been consistent, unlike a low-volume dead cat bounce.
- The daily MACD has confirmed a bullish crossover and the histogram is expanding upwards. This signals that the momentum is strong and the trend has shifted firmly to the buy side.
- The daily RSI has moved comfortably into the bullish zone. It is rising but not yet in extreme overbought territory, suggesting there is still room for the upside before a major cool-off is needed.
- The Parabolic SAR dots remain below the price candles on the daily chart, maintaining a clear “buy” signal and confirming the active short-term uptrend.
- The immediate strategy shifts to “buy on dips” with 25,800 – 25,850 acting as the new support floor. A sustained close above 26,125 will open the doors for a fresh rally towards 26,350+.
Conclusion:
The market structure has turned firmly bullish with the completion of a V-shaped recovery. The bulls have successfully recaptured the 26,000 mark and are testing the all-time high resistance at 26,125. While minor consolidation near this double-top is possible, the trend remains positive as long as the 25,850 support holds. A breakout above 26,125 triggers the next leg of the rally into “blue-sky” territory.
