Weekly Trend Report
- 14th Jul 2025
Week Gone By
The key equity indices ended the week lower as investors turned cautious amid global trade uncertainties and the upcoming Q1 earnings season. Sentiment was dampened by ongoing concerns over potential US tariff measures, following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new import duties on major trade partners. Caution also prevailed ahead of a potential breakthrough in US-India trade negotiations, with market participants awaiting clarity on the implications for key sectors. India’s foreign currency assets and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) rose, while gold reserves declined. The country’s reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also saw an increase. Globally, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% in June compared to the previous year, marking the steepest decline in nearly two years. Conversely, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged up by just 0.1% YoY.
Week Ahead
After a turbulent week marked by global tariff concerns and a muted start to the Q1 earnings season, market sentiment remains cautious. The Nifty and Sensex have faced selling pressure across key sectors, with investor confidence dampened by geopolitical uncertainties and disappointing early earnings reports. Looking ahead, the upcoming week may see a phase of consolidation. As the earnings season gathers momentum, sector-specific volatility is expected to dominate. On the domestic front, India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation and Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) rate for June will be released on Monday, 14 July 2025, followed by the Balance of Trade data on Tuesday, 15 July 2025. Globally, China’s Balance of Trade figures for June are due on Monday, while its Q2 GDP growth rate, Industrial Production (YoY), and Retail Sales (YoY) will be released on Tuesday, 15 July 2025. In the US, Core Inflation Rate (MoM and YoY), Inflation Rate (MoM and YoY) for June are scheduled for release on Tuesday, 15 July 2025, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Wednesday, 16 July 2025.
Technical Overview
- Nifty ended the week at 25,149.85, down 205 points, marking its second consecutive weekly decline—a signal that bullish momentum is clearly under stress.
- The index has breached the 10-day EMA envelope, a key short-term dynamic support zone, which suggests the trend may be undergoing a short-term shift or cooling off.
- Multiple indecisive to bearish candles near the recent highs indicate distribution, with price rejection visible above the 25,270–25,300 zone
- The 14-day RSI has slipped to 48.75, losing its grip above the neutral 50 mark, indicating weakening momentum and increased vulnerability to further downside.
- While +DI at 24.06 still remains above -DI at 24.14, the spread has sharply narrowed. Combined with a low ADX at 20.15, this indicates a fading trend and rising chances of a consolidation or minor reversal.
- The MACD histogram remains in green territory, currently at +150.56, but has begun to flatten, hinting at slowing upside traction.
- Price is now hovering just above the 25,100–25,000 zone — a region that has acted as short-term support in recent weeks and is being retested.
- Failure to hold the support zone this week could lead to deeper retracement, possibly toward 24,600 or lower, as bullish conviction appears to be waning.
- Unless Nifty stabilizes above 25,100, the short-term trend may flip in favor of bears. A close below 25,000 could trigger broader unwinding.
- Conclusion:
Nifty has slipped below the 10-day EMA envelope and registered two successive weekly losses, signaling caution. The index must hold 25,100–25,000 in the upcoming week to avoid triggering further downside toward 24,600. Momentum indicators are softening, and traders may adopt a wait-and-watch stance unless strength returns above 25,270.
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