Weekly Trend Report
- 07th Jul 2025
Week Gone By
The Indian key equity indices ended with significant losses during the week, weighted down by ongoing uncertainty over the India–US trade deal, weak industrial output data, and cautious sentiment ahead of the earnings season. During the week, Nifty 50 ended lower by 0.69% to settle at 25,461.70, while the Sensex dropped by 0.74% to settle at 83,432.89. Investor focus remained firmly on geopolitical developments, as the looming July 9 deadline for the India–US trade negotiations added pressure, with potential tariffs of up to 36% on Indian exports if no agreement is reached. Domestically, industrial output growth slowed sharply to 1.2% in May, a nine-month low, led by contractions in mining and electricity sectors. However, June PMI data showed strong momentum in services and manufacturing, offering some optimism. Globally, U.S. private payroll data was disappointing with jobs decline by 33,000 in June against expectations of a 99,000 gain, while nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, above expectations. China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the third straight month in June indicating signs of weakness. Adding to global trade jitters, the U.S. imposed a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports while receiving zero tariffs in return, fueling concerns of escalating protectionism.
Week Ahead
Next week, investor sentiment will be shaped primarily by global developments, with no major domestic events scheduled. Markets will closely monitor progress on the potential US–India trade agreement, which, if confirmed, could boost equity market momentum. On the global front, key economic data from China and the U.S. will be in focus. China will release its Inflation Rate (YoY) data for June on July 9, following a 0.1% year-on-year decline in May. Also on July 9, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release the FOMC Minutes from its June policy meeting, where it maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, as it continues to assess the impact of recent policy moves. Later in the week, on July 12, China’s Balance of Trade data for June will be released, after posting a strong $103.22 billion surplus in May. In the absence of major domestic triggers, the Indian market will take cues from these global indicators, along with trends in crude oil prices and geopolitical developments.
Technical Overview
Despite strong intraday moves, Nifty has yet to deliver a weekly close above the 25,500 mark — a key resistance level that has capped upside momentum for two weeks in a row.
The latest daily candle signals hesitation near resistance, with prices closing at 25,461.00, barely changed despite testing intraday highs of 25,470.25.
The RSI at 61.01 continues to indicate strength, but its flattening suggests short-term momentum may be stalling just below critical resistance.
Nifty remains well above its short-term and medium-term moving averages. The broader bullish structure remains intact, supported by higher highs and higher lows.
The +DI at 28.45 stays elevated above the -DI at 21.29, suggesting bullish bias persists. However, the ADX at 18.38 indicates that trend strength is modest and may need a catalyst to accelerate.
MACD histogram continues to stay in positive territory with a reading of +216.08, indicating sustained bullish momentum, albeit without fresh acceleration.
The index appears to be consolidating just below resistance, possibly forming a base before the next leg higher — provided it breaks decisively above 25,500.
The rising support zone at 25,000 has acted as a cushion for the past few sessions and is likely to serve as the immediate downside reference level.
A weekly close above 25,500 would mark a significant breakout and likely open the path toward 25,800–26,000 in the short term.
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