Weekly Trend Report
- 16th Jun 2025
Week Gone By
The key equity indices posted sharp losses during the week, weighed down by geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks and escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. Sentiment further deteriorated after Israel carried out military strikes on Iran, heightening tensions in the oil-rich Middle East. In the week ended on Friday, 13 June 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 1,070.39 points or 1.30% to settle at 81,118.60. The Nifty 50 index tumbled 284.45 points or 1.14% to settle at 24,718.60. The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 0.90% to close at 45,681.28. The BSE Small-Cap fell 0.13% to end at 53,370.29. In the week ended on Friday, 13 June 2025, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 1,070.39 points or 1.30% to settle at 81,118.60. The Nifty 50 index tumbled 284.45 points or 1.14% to settle at 24,718.60. The BSE Mid-Cap index shed 0.90% to close at 45,681.28. The BSE Small-Cap fell 0.13% to end at 53,370.29.
Week Ahead
The coming week may keep Indian equities under pressure, with sentiment fragile amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. The recent Israeli military strike has raised fears of a broader regional conflict that could disrupt oil supply chains and weigh on global economic activity. Brent crude has already surged to $78 per barrel, and further escalation could send prices soaring even higher. India’s WPI inflation data for May will be released on Monday, 16 June 2025. On Friday, 20 June 2025, the RBI will release the minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting, along with infrastructure output data for May. The US will release its retail sales month-on-month data for May on Tuesday, 17 June 2025. Japan’s inflation rate for May will be released on Friday, 20 June 2025.
Technical Overview
NIFTY 50 closed the session at 24,718.60, down 169.60 points, after opening nearly 450 points gap-down, clearly rejecting the critical resistance at 25,116.
The index continues to face strong supply near 25,100–25,150. Multiple rejection wicks suggest that bulls are losing momentum near this zone.
With a decisive close below 24,750 and a breakdown from the recent consolidation zone, NIFTY may now enter a broader sideways-to-negative range between 24,530–25,100.
Key supports lie at 24,537–24,630, marked by previous swing lows and high-volume nodes. A breach below 24,530 may trigger further downside toward 24,200 and even 23,800.
RSI likely heading below 55, showing fading bullish momentum. MACD Histogram is flattening, suggesting exhaustion in upward momentum.
ADX may continue to flatten, signaling weakening trend strength unless bulls regain control above 25,100.
On the options front, heavy call writing seen at 24,900 & 25,000, indicating a strong near-term resistance zone.
Put support is visible at 24,500, which remains the immediate downside cushion.
Conclusion:
The structure has weakened with a decisive rejection from the 25,116 zone. As long as 24,530 holds, the index may witness sideways consolidation. However, any breach below that may open the gates for deeper retracement. Sustaining above 25,000 is essential for bulls to regain momentum.
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