Weekly Trend Report
- 23rd Jun 2025
Week Gone By
The domestic markets ended with major gains during the week despite overcoming midweek weakness caused by rising tensions between Israel and Iran. After three straight sessions of losses, markets rebounded sharply on Friday. Broader markets underperformed. Investors largely overlooked domestic economic data and remained focused on geopolitical developments. The key equity indices ended with significant gains on Friday, snapping a three day losing streak in a row, as market remained firm despite rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. The S&P BSE Sensex jumped 1,046.30 points or 1.29% to 82,408.17. The Nifty 50 index jumped 319.15 points or 1.29% to 25,112.40. On the economic front, India’s wholesale price inflation (WPI) declined to a 14-month low of 0.39% in May 2025, down from 0.85% in April. Japan’s core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 3.7% in May from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, accelerating from a 3.5% increase in April.
Week Ahead
As the new week kicks off, markets are entering with cautious optimism. While Friday’s rebound brought some cheer, investors remain alert to developments in West Asia. Any flare-up in tensions could push crude oil prices higher, reviving volatility and unsettling sentiment. With no major domestic triggers on the radar, developments in the Middle East, US economic data, and crude oil prices, will likely dictate the mood. The advice remains to stay selectively bullish, align with sectoral trends, and prioritize stock-specific opportunities over index bets. India’s HSBC Composite PMI Flash for June will release on Monday, 23 June 2025. US existing home sales data for May will release on Monday, 23 June 2025. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony will take place on Tuesday, 24 June 2025. US GDP growth rate data for Q1 (final) will release on Thursday, 26 June 2025.
Technical Overview
- NIFTY ended the week on a strong note at 25,112.40, gaining +319.15 points (+1.29%), indicating bullish momentum and a
successful breakout attempt from recent consolidation. - The index approached the previous swing high of 25,116.25. A sustained move above this level will confirm the breakout
and open up higher targets. - The zone of 25,000–25,200 now acts as immediate support. Holding above this level in the coming week is essential for the
continuation of the uptrend. - The breakout was backed by higher-than-average volume (574.58M), indicating strong participation and conviction from
market participants. - The RSI at 59.09 reflects healthy momentum, staying well below overbought levels and suggesting room for further upside.
- The ADX stands at 13.25, indicating that while the trend is positive, it is not yet strongly established. A rise in ADX in the
coming days would further validate bullish strength. - The +DI remains well above -DI, showing that buyers are still in control of the price action despite a relatively soft ADX
reading. - The MACD histogram remains in green territory, showing that upside momentum persists, though fresh expansion is needed
for aggressive follow-through. - Key Support Level at 24,400While immediate support lies at 24,962–24,785, a break below 24,400 would invalidate the
bullish bias and could trigger a near-term corrective move. - For the coming week, NIFTY must hold above the 25,000–25,200 zone to maintain upward momentum. If it manages to
sustain these levels, we could see continued call unwinding and a push toward 25,350–25,500. However, a decisive move
below 24,400 would negate the bullish view and warrant caution.
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