Weekly Trend Report
- 20th Oct 2025
Week Gone By
The key equity benchmarks ended with robust gains, extending their winning streak for the third consecutive week. The rally was supported by upbeat Q2 corporate earnings and encouraging economic data. The market advanced in three out of five trading sessions during the week. On the economic front, India’s retail inflation slipped to 1.5% in September from 2.1% in the preceding month mainly due to subdued prices of food items, including vegetables and pulses, according to government data released on Monday. India’s wholesale price inflation moderated more-than-expected in September from a 4-month high in August, provisional data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed on Tuesday. Going ahead, Investor will focus on the upcoming Q2 results from, Bharti Airtel, Colpal and Dr Reddy. Additionally, investors will keep a close watch on global cues, brent crude oil prices, and key economic indicators for further direction.
Week Ahead
Indian equities enter the week of Oct 18–24, 2025 with a cautiously optimistic undertone, riding on robust domestic flows and easing external headwinds. The Nifty climbed to a one-year high on October 17, buoyed by strong buying in Reliance and easing yields in the US Meanwhile, the RBI reportedly intervened in forex markets, selling up to $5 billion to support the rupee amid external pressures. On the global front, the IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast, citing more benign tariff impacts and resilient private sector momentum. That said, China’s export trajectory is moderating, and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions loom as downside risks. Volatility may rise ahead of US Fed signals and major corporate earnings that are slated for release in the coming weeks. In India, the Infrastructure Output figures for the September 2025 period would be made public on Tuesday. The infrastructure output in India expanded by 6.3% from the previous year in Aug 2025, accelerating from the upwardly revised 3.2% increase in the previous month, to mark the sharpest pace of growth in one year.
Technical Overview
- The Nifty 50 index has successfully broken out of its multi-month consolidation range, decisively closing above the critical all-time high resistance of 25,640. This action signals the resumption of the primary bullish trend.
- The weekly chart confirms the breakout with a strong, bullish candle closing near its high. This indicates powerful buying conviction on a higher timeframe, suggesting institutional participation.
- Volume accompanying the breakout is robust and significantly above average. This strong participation validates the legitimacy of the move and increases the probability of a sustained uptrend.
- The RSI has decisively broken above the 60 level on both daily and weekly timeframes. This confirms a significant shift from a neutral, sideways momentum to a strong bullish momentum, indicating that buyers are firmly in control.
- The MACD indicator has registered a fresh bullish crossover above the zero line. The expanding histogram confirms that upward momentum is not only present but accelerating.
- The Parabolic SAR has flipped below the price candles, generating a clear buy signal. This suggests that the prior ranging period has concluded and a new, sustained uptrend has commenced.
- The price has also breached the short-term descending trendline that was capping the highs since July, adding another layer of technical confirmation.
- The previous resistance zone between 25,400 and 25,640 is now expected to transform into the new critical support level. Any minor pullbacks to re-test this area should now be viewed as potential buying opportunities.
Conclusion:
The Nifty 50’s consolidation has resolved decisively to the upside. The confirmed breakout above 25,640 on strong volume, now supported by bullish confirmations from key momentum indicators like RSI, MACD, and Parabolic SAR, signals a robust resumption of the primary uptrend. The market bias is firmly bullish, and the strategy should pivot to buy on dips, with the old resistance at 25,640 now acting as the new support floor.
