Weekly Trend Report
- 14th Oct 2025
Week Gone By
Domestic equities ended the week on a strong note, buoyed by upbeat corporate earnings, optimistic Q2 updates, and supportive global cues. The Sensex and Nifty posted healthy gains, extending their winning streak for the second consecutive week as investor sentiment remained upbeat following the RBI’s upward revision of India’s GDP growth forecast for FY26. Broader market participation was evident, with mid-caps outperforming while small-caps largely consolidated. Globally, improved growth projections for China and a stable macro backdrop lent further support to risk appetite, even as trade tensions and political developments in Europe kept investors cautious. On the domestic front, PMI readings suggested moderation in activity, but overall business conditions remained resilient, reinforcing optimism about sustained economic momentum.
Week Ahead
The domestic equity market enters the upcoming week with a cautiously optimistic tone, as focus shifts firmly to the Q2 earnings season. Overall, while strong domestic fundamentals and steady FII inflows underpin a constructive outlook, volatility may persist amid global macro uncertainties and evolving earnings commentary. On the macro front, key domestic data releases will keep investors engaged. CPI for September (October 13) will offer insight into retail price trends, particularly food and fuel costs, ahead of the RBI’s next policy meet. This will be followed by the WPI Food Inflation on October 14 and the Unemployment Rate for September on October 15, providing a deeper read on supply-side pressures and labor market conditions. Globally, markets will track a busy economic calendar and central bank commentary. China’s September trade data (October 13) will offer cues on export demand, followed by its inflation report on October 15. In the US, remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (October 14) and a series of key inflation prints, including CPI and Core Inflation (October 15), PPI and Retail Sales (October 16), and housing data (October 17).
Technical Overview
- The index is consolidating in a well-defined range, with a strong resistance zone between 25,300 and 25,640. Multiple attempts to break out have been met with supply, indicating profit-taking at higher levels.
- A firm support base has been established near the 24,800 mark. This level has acted as a demand zone on several occasions, absorbing selling pressure and preventing a deeper correction.
- The price is trading above the long-term 200-period moving average, confirming that the secular bull trend remains intact.
- However, the shorter-term moving average ribbon is flattening on both daily and weekly charts, signaling a clear loss of upward momentum and a shift into a sideways phase.
- The chart structure shows a classic rectangular consolidation pattern. This typically represents a pause in the prevailing trend, often leading to a powerful continuation move once the range is resolved.
- Volume has been unremarkable within the range, suggesting a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears. A significant increase in volume will be a key confirmation signal for either a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support.
- The price action is currently situated in a between the established support and resistance levels. Trading within this area carries a higher risk due to the lack of a clear directional trend.
- A decisive weekly close above the high of 25,640 is required to invalidate the current consolidation and signal the resumption of the primary uptrend.
- Conversely, a breakdown and sustained close below the critical 24,800 support would suggest the consolidation is resolving to the downside, potentially triggering a move towards the next major support zone around 24,8600−24,500.
- Conclusion:
The Nifty 50 index is in a state of equilibrium, coiling within a defined range between 24,800 on the downside and the 25,300−25,640 zone on the upside. While the long-term trend remains bullish, the immediate outlook is neutral. The market is awaiting a catalyst to force a breakout or a breakdown from this consolidation. A move beyond these key levels will dictate the next directional leg for the index.
