Weekly Trend Report
- 24th February 2025
Week Gone By
The key equity indices witnessed major losses during the week, ending low due to concerns over global headwinds, including potential U.S. tariffs, persistent U.S. inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts. The Nifty 50 ended slightly lower by 0.58% at 22,795.90, while the Sensex declined by 0.83% settling at 75,311.06. The HSBC Flash India Composite Output Index. Witnessed its fastest expansion since August 2024 with index rising to 60.6 in February up from 57.7 in January. Despite this, the HSBC Flash India Manufacturing PMI slipped to 57.1 in February but managed to remain above its long run average of 54.1. Globally, Japan’s GDP grew by2.8%YoY. The People’s Bank of China held the 1-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%. Further, the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed policymakers remained hesitant about lowering interest rates amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty.
Week Ahead
Next week, investor sentiment will be shaped by a blend of domestic and global developments, with key economic data points coming into focus. On the domestic front, India will see the release of Q4 GDP data on Friday, February 28, 2025, following a slower expansion of 5.4% in the previous quarter. The market will also be influenced by the Mahashivratri holiday on Wednesday, February 26, when the Indian stock exchanges will remain closed. Globally, the US will see several key data releases, including Durable Goods Orders for January on Thursday, February 27, and the Q4 GDP Second Estimate on the same day. Additionally, data for the US Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income, and Personal Spending for January will all be released on Friday, February 28, 2025. These developments, coupled with the ongoing concerns surrounding US tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach, are expected to keep markets on edge.
Technical Overview
- Nifty closed at 22,795, losing 133 points (-0.58%) for the week, marking its weakest close since May 24.
- The index remains in a crucial zone between 22,800 – 22,700, making it a wait-and-watch scenario.
- Indian markets opened on a weak note and continued to decline throughout the day, dragged down by financial and auto stocks.
- Global concerns, FII selling, and US tariff worries further dented investor sentiment.
- After opening 146 points lower, Nifty briefly recovered to fill the gap but faced a sharp sell-off from 22,921, correcting nearly 200 points intraday.
- Derivative data suggests a bearish bias, with strong call writing at 23,000 (1.09 Cr contracts), indicating firm resistance. Significant put writing at 22,000 (94.62 L contracts) highlights solid lower support.
- The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dropped to 0.73 from 0.81, signaling that sellers hold the upper hand.
- Max Pain at 23,000 suggests that while buyers absorb declines, market stability remains uncertain.
- Immediate resistance stands at 23,000, while 22,700 is key support. A breakout beyond this range will determine the next trend.
- Until a clear breakout occurs, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for index trades.
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