Weekly Trend Report
- 25th Aug 2025
Week Gone By
Domestic equity benchmarks ended their six-day winning streak, weighed down by profit booking and lingering global uncertainties. Earlier in the week, markets had seen strong gains supported by optimism over upcoming GST reforms and robust domestic data, including a sharp rise in India’s PMI and steady core sector growth, which had boosted sentiment. However, mixed global cues from major economies and central banks led to some hesitation, triggering a pullback by the week’s end. India’s Manufacturing PMI, covering new orders, employment, and inventories, edged up to 59.8. Revised core sector growth for June 2025 stood at 2.2%, indicating a steady industrial trend in the early months of the fiscal year. Globally, the US Census Bureau data released Friday showed retail sales rose 0.5% in July over the prior month. Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment weakened in August, declining for the first time in four months as long-term inflation expectations rose. Additionally, new applications for jobless benefits in the US climbed by the most in nearly three months last week.
Week Ahead
Indian equities head into the coming week on a cautiously constructive note, supported by steady domestic conditions and resilience in select sectors. With a relatively light local economic calendar, near-term volatility from domestic data releases is expected to remain limited. However, investor focus will largely shift to global developments. In the US, several key macroeconomic indicators are due, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. Any significant surprises on this front may ripple into emerging markets, including India, by influencing global risk sentiment and foreign capital flows. On the domestic front, India’s Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI will be released on Thursday, August 21. Globally, China will announce its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates on Wednesday, August 20, followed by July 2025 FDI (YTD) YoY data on Friday, August 22. In the US, New Home Sales data for July is scheduled for release on Monday, August 25, while the Core PCE Price Index for July, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released on Friday, August 29.
Technical Overview
- Nifty has once again failed to sustain above the 25,000 mark on a weekly basis. This highlights the fact that every attempt to climb higher is met with selling pressure, showing that this level has become a psychological as well as technical hurdle.
- The recent price action indicates a sideways-to-negative bias, with higher levels unable to attract fresh buying. Unless momentum improves, the short-term trend may continue to drift with a downward tilt.
- The zone of 25,150–25,300 remains the immediate ceiling for the index. A breakout and close above this range would be a meaningful signal of strength and could shift sentiment back in favour of the bulls.
- A decisive close above 25,300 would change the entire picture, potentially opening the way for 25,650–26,000 in the coming sessions. Until such a breakout occurs, the market may continue to consolidate with a mild downward bias.
- On the downside, support is placed at 24,600–24,400, which has so far helped the index avoid deeper losses. If these levels hold, the index can remain in consolidation; if broken, the structure will weaken further.
- A breach of 24,400 can open the gates for a sharper fall towards 23,780, which is a crucial demand zone from earlier price action. This would confirm that sellers have regained firm control over the near-term trend.
- The RSI is hovering near 50, reflecting indecision and lack of clear direction. This neutral reading suggests that traders are waiting for a breakout from the current range before committing strongly on either side.
- The MACD continues to trade in a negative crossover, signalling that downward pressure still persists. Unless this crossover turns positive, rallies are likely to face selling pressure near resistance levels.
- The ADX at 24.5 indicates a weak trend environment, meaning that moves are likely to remain range-bound for now. A rising ADX above 30 would be needed to confirm a strong trending move in either direction.
- Conclusion:
Nifty has finally snapped its six-week losing streak with a modest bounce, hinting at early stabilisation. Holding above 24,500 will be critical for further upside toward 24,800–25,000. A close below 24,350, however, could quickly reinstate selling pressure and target lower supports.
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