Weekly Trend Report
- 01st Sep 2025
Week Gone By
Domestic equity markets ended the truncated week with sharp losses, weighed down by renewed trade tensions after the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on key Indian exports. The move sparked concerns over economic fallout and pressured investor sentiment. Broader markets underperformed the frontline indices, with investors also keeping a close watch on crude oil prices and FII fund flows. For the week, the S&P BSE Sensex declined 1,497.20 points (1.84%) to settle at 79,809.65, while the Nifty 50 tumbled 443.25 points (1.78%) to close at 24,426.85. The weakness was more pronounced in the broader markets, with the BSE Mid-Cap index plunging 2.72% to 44,642.31, and the BSE Small-Cap index slipping 2.93% to 51,449.20. On the macro front, India’s industrial production growth quickened to 3.5% in July, compared to 1.5% in June, as per data from the National Statistical Office (NSO).
Week Ahead
The upcoming week is expected to be event-heavy, with key domestic and global data releases likely to drive market sentiment. In India, auto sales numbers, along with PMI readings and inflation data, will be closely tracked for signals on economic momentum. On the global front, multiple PMI prints and other crucial macroeconomic indicators are scheduled, with particular focus on the U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which will provide cues on the strength of the labor market and influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Investors will also remain vigilant on geo-political developments, given their potential to impact risk appetite. Key releases to watch include: U.S. JOLTs Job Openings (July 2025) – due Wednesday, September 3. Job openings in June had dropped by 275,000 to 7.437 million, below expectations of 7.55 million, keeping labor market softness in focus. India’s Inflation Rate (August 2025) – scheduled for release on Friday, which will be crucial for RBI’s policy trajectory.
Technical Overview
- Nifty has slipped below the crucial 24,500 support, indicating that selling pressure is still dominant in the near term. The immediate base now rests at 24,300, and a sustained break below this could drag the index towards 24,000.
- On the other side, the upside remains capped, with 24,700–25,000 acting as a strong resistance zone. Until Nifty crosses this band decisively, any bounce will largely be considered a pullback within a weak setup.
- From a structural point of view, the index continues to form lower highs and lower lows, which confirms that the short-term trend is tilted downward.
- Nifty is also trading below the short-term moving averages (10 & 20 EMA), adding further weight to the bearish bias.
- The Parabolic SAR dots are placed above price, suggesting that the downward pressure is intact, and trend reversal is yet to be confirmed.
- Momentum indicators also highlight caution. The RSI has slipped to 39, below the neutral 50 mark, signaling weakening strength in the index. A dip below 35 could accelerate the selling pressure.
- Meanwhile, the ADX reading is 24.41, which shows that a trend is developing but not yet extremely strong; however, if this rises further with falling price, the downtrend may strengthen further.
- The MACD indicator is trading in negative territory, with a widening histogram, clearly reflecting bearish momentum. This suggests that rallies will likely be sold into unless a strong crossover emerges.
- Volumes have also picked up during recent declines, showing distribution activity—an indication that institutional participation on the sell side is increasing, while buying conviction remains weak.
- Looking ahead, the outlook for Nifty remains bearish to sideways as long as it trades below 24,500. The key level to watch is 24,300—a breakdown here could invite further declines towards 24,000. On the contrary, only a sustained move above 24,700–25,000 would shift momentum in favor of the bulls and hint at a recovery.
- Conclusion:Nifty is under pressure with bias tilted to the downside. 24,300 is the immediate level to track, while 25,000 will be the hurdle for bulls. Until either side is decisively taken out, expect range-bound movement with a negative undertone.
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