Weekly Trend Report
- 08th Sep 2025
Week Gone By
The Indian equity markets ended the week on a positive note, with both the Nifty and Sensex crossing key psychological levels of 24,700 and 80,700, respectively. The strong momentum was underpinned by robust domestic economic data, including a 7.8% GDP growth print and the highest PMI readings in years, which reinforced optimism around sustained growth in manufacturing and services. Investor sentiment was further buoyed by the government’s sweeping GST rate cuts on essential goods, two-wheelers, and education items, which are expected to boost consumption. The sentiment in the US also remained positive, with weaker labor data supporting participant’s probability of rate cut in the upcoming Fed meet. In Europe, inflation in the eurozone edged up slightly to 2.1% in August, with core inflation steady at 2.3%, keeping the European Central Bank’s policy path in focus. In Asia, China’s factory activity showed signs of stabilization with private PMI data improving, though official readings still suggested contraction.
Week Ahead
Indian equities are set to begin the upcoming week on a cautiously optimistic note, with sentiment supported by last week’s GST-led tax relief measures and continued resilience in macroeconomic indicators. The government’s policy push through tax and liquidity measures is being viewed as structural support for growth, though the impact is expected to unfold gradually. In the week ahead, investors are likely to track both domestic and global data releases closely. In India, the August inflation print (due Friday, September 12) will be a key focus, with consensus pointing toward a further moderation after July’s 1.55%, which had already marked a ninth straight monthly decline. Overall, while domestic reforms and supportive global cues provide a constructive setup, investors may stay cautious amid evolving Fed signals and international trade uncertainties.
Technical Overview
- The index witnessed selling pressure after failing to sustain above the 24,800–24,900 zone and has once again slipped near the 24,700 mark. The index continues to struggle at higher levels, highlighting that bears are still holding an edge.
- Immediate support lies at 24,500, and a breakdown below this level could extend the fall towards 24,300. If 24,300 is breached, the index may further test the 24,000–23,950 zone.
- On the upside, the index faces stiff resistance between 24,800–25,000. A decisive move above this zone is required for bulls to regain control and attempt a recovery towards 25,300–25,500. Until then, any bounce will be considered a short-covering move within a weak structure.
- From a trend perspective, Nifty continues to form lower highs, while support retests remain frequent, confirming a fragile setup.
- The index is currently trading near the 10 and 20-day EMAs, reinforcing the near-term bearish tone.
- The Parabolic SAR continues to signal selling dominance as the dots remain placed above the price action.
- Momentum indicators are also cautious. RSI is hovering around the 48 zone, below the neutral 50 mark, indicating that strength is still missing. A slide below 45 could trigger renewed weakness.
- ADX is currently at 24.6, suggesting the trend is developing but yet to gain full strength. If it rises further along with price weakness, the downtrend could accelerate.
- The MACD remains in negative territory, with the histogram widening again indicating that bearish momentum is not fading yet.
- Volume activity also shows higher participation during declines compared to upswings, suggesting that institutional selling pressure remains intact while buying interest is selective and short-lived.
- Conclusion:
Nifty continues to remain under pressure, with 24,500 as the immediate support and 25,000 as the critical hurdle. Below 24,500, weakness may extend towards 24,300–24,000, while only a breakout above 25,000 will revive bullish sentiment. Until then, range-bound moves with a negative bias remain likely.
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