Weekly Trend Report
- 06th Oct 2025
Week Gone By
The key equity benchmarks ended the truncated week with substantial gains, snapping a six-session losing streak. The rally was supported by the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee, which kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.5%. The central bank lowered its FY26 inflation forecast and raised its GDP growth projection. Broader market outperformed the frontline indices. The headline equity indices ended marginally lower on Monday, extending their losing streak to a seventh straight session. The S&P BSE Sensex slipped 61.52 points, or 0.08%, to 80,364.94. The Nifty 50 declined 19.80 points, or 0.08%, to 24,634.90. Over the seven sessions, the Sensex has dropped 3.19% and the Nifty has lost 3.10%. India’s industrial output grew by 4% in August as against the growth of 4.3% in July, according to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Monday. In China, the Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 49.8, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. While still in contraction, the latest reading was the strongest since March.
Week Ahead
Indian equities enter the next trading week on a cautiously optimistic note. India’s Finance Minister affirmed resilient growth and pledged elevated capital spending to offset external headwinds. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is delaying key macro data—creating a data vacuum that could complicate rate expectations ahead of the Fed’s October meeting. On the domestic front, the HSBC Services PMI Final for September 2025 would be released on Monday (06 October 2025). The HSBC India Services PMI fell to 61.6 in September 2025, down from 62.9 in August, according to preliminary estimates. In the United States, the Balance of Trade figures for August 2025 would be made public on Tuesday (07 October 2025). On Thursday (09 October 2025), the FOMC Minutes would be made public. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, bringing it to the 4.00%–4.25% range. It is the first reduction in borrowing costs since December.
Technical Overview
- Nifty extended its recovery after testing a low near 24,600 and managed to hold above key short-term supports.
- The index is now trading around 24,900–25,000, displaying stability after last week’s correction. While the rebound has been gradual, the index continues to show resilience near its crucial support zone.
- The overall trend remains positive, with the index forming a higher low pattern near 24,600. However, the pace of the uptrend has slowed as Nifty continues to trade within a narrow consolidation band of 24,600–25,200.
- Immediate support lies at 24,750–24,800, followed by 24,600. A breach below 24,600 could trigger mild profit booking towards 24,400, though the broader bullish trend remains intact above this zone.
- On the upside, 25,000–25,200 will act as the immediate resistance zone. Sustaining above this band could open the path towards 25,450–25,600 in the short term.
- Nifty is currently trading above its 100-day EMA, suggesting near-term strength, while the 50-day EMA near 24,900 continues to provide strong structural resistance.
- Volumes have been moderate, indicating that the current recovery is a controlled, accumulation-driven move rather than a high-momentum breakout.
- The RSI around 49 reflects neutral momentum, suggesting a balanced setup. A move beyond 55 would signal strengthening momentum on the upside.
- The ADX at 18 indicates a low-trend phase, consistent with the ongoing consolidation. A rise above 25 would mark a renewed directional move in the index.
- The MACD remains flat, highlighting that selling pressure has eased, though buyers are yet to gain full control. A positive crossover above 25,000 would strengthen the case for an extended recovery.
- Conclusion:
Nifty showed signs of stability this week, managing to hold above the crucial 24,600 mark and reclaiming the 25,000 level. The index now faces resistance between 25,000–25,200, and a breakout above this zone could open the way for a move toward 25,450–25,600. On the downside, 24,600 remains a key support to watch. The trend remains constructive but slow, with momentum indicators showing a neutral bias. As long as Nifty holds above 24,600, the short-term outlook stays positive with a potential upward bias.
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