Weekly Trend Report
- 22nd Sep 2025
Week Gone By
The Indian equity market ended the week with sharp losses, declining for the sixth straight session. The fall was triggered by global uncertainty, panic over the sudden $100,000 H-1B visa fee announced by the US, and weakness in IT and pharma stocks. Sentiment weakened further after US President Donald Trump declared a 100% tariff on branded drug imports, effective October 1, 2025. Sluggish domestic business activity and continued FII selling also weighed on markets. According to flash survey data released by HSBC on Tuesday, business activity in India moderated slightly in September. The Flash India Manufacturing PMI Output Index eased to 62.7 from 63.7 in August, while the broader Flash Manufacturing PMI slipped to 58.5 from 59.3. Globally, China’s central bank kept the loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged for the fourth consecutive month. The one-year LPR was maintained at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR remained at 3.5%. This move came after the US Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate cut last week. Meanwhile, President Trump’s immigration crackdown on work visas has continued to keep market sentiment cautious.
Week Ahead
Domestic equities enter the coming week with several key domestic and global economic indicators likely to steer market sentiment. Investors will keep a close watch on India’s industrial output data, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policy decision, fresh PMI readings, as well as global inflation prints and central bank cues. However, volatility may remain amid foreign fund flows and global uncertainties. On the domestic front, industrial production data is scheduled for release on Monday, 29 September 2025, followed by the RBI’s interest rate decision on 1 October 2025. The central bank had maintained the repo rate at 5.50% during its August meeting, keeping a neutral stance, after a larger-than-expected 50 bps in June. HSBC’s September manufacturing PMI data will also be published on 1 October 2025. Globally, China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI will be released on Tuesday, 30 September 2025. On Wednesday, 1 October 2025, the Euro Area’s consumer price inflation figures and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. Lastly, the US unemployment rate data for September will be released on Friday, 3 October 2025.
Technical Overview
Nifty has been under pressure since last Friday and has already lost nearly 800 points from its recent swing high near 25,450. The inability to sustain higher levels has shifted the tone towards weakness.
The index has slipped below the rising channel support and failed to defend the crucial 25,000 mark. This has changed the short-term structure from bullish to corrective.
Nifty has broken 24,750, which was acting as a key support. The next strong zone is at 24,500–24,400. A bounce may emerge from here, but if these levels fail, the downside could extend further.
On the upside, 25,000 now turns into immediate resistance. Sustaining above 25,000 will be essential to ease the pressure. Above that, 25,200–25,400 would be the next hurdles.
The index has slipped below the 20-day EMA and is hovering near the 50-day EMA. A close below the 50-day EMA will further weaken sentiment.
The decline has come on higher volumes, which points to distribution and selling pressure from stronger hands.
The RSI has dropped to 39, indicating bearish momentum, though not yet in oversold territory. Some relief bounce is possible, but the broader setup stays cautious.
ADX is at 18, which signals a weak trend. This means the fall is more of a corrective phase / profit booking rather than the start of a strong bearish trend. Unless ADX rises above 25–30, sustained trending moves will be difficult.
The MACD histogram is in negative territory, showing bearish bias, but without strong conviction yet.
Conclusion:
Nifty has broken below the 25,000 psychological level as well as 24,750, and this keeps the market under pressure. Going forward, weakness may continue towards 24,500–24,400, which are crucial support levels. Unless Nifty reclaims and sustains above 25,000, the sentiment will remain cautious. A sustained move above 25,000 would signal strength returning, while a breach below 24,400 could extend the weakness further.
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