Weekly Trend Report
- 30th Jun 2025
Week Gone By
Equity markets rallied this week, closing higher in four of five sessions, fueled by strong FII inflows, upbeat PMI data, and optimism over a tentative Iran-Israel ceasefire. The Sensex jumped 2% to 84,059, while the Nifty surged 2.1% to 25,638. Mid- and small-caps outperformed, gaining 2.3% and 3.6%, respectively. On the macro front, Japan’s manufacturing sector showed recovery and inflation eased, while China posted a sharp 9.1% decline in industrial profits. The U.S. reported its first GDP contraction since 2022, though jobless claims saw improvement. Domestically, India’s HSBC Flash Composite PMI hit a 14-month high of 61.0, reflecting robust growth in both manufacturing and services.
Week Ahead
Indian equity markets may open the coming week on a cautiously optimistic note, supported by geopolitical relief following the tentative Iran-Israel ceasefire and renewed global risk appetite. Continued FII buying and strong mid- and smallcap participation could provide near-term support, while all eyes shift to key US Fed commentary and trade tariff developments. Domestically, macro releases such as May IIP, Q1 current account, and final June PMI readings will guide investor sentiment. Globally, crucial data including China and US PMI, Japan’s Tankan Index, and US jobs data will shape risk perception.
Technical Overview
- After nearly seven weeks of sideways consolidation, NIFTY has registered a clean breakout above the 25,200 barrier, closing at 25,637.80 — a clear sign of renewed bullish momentum.
- The index printed a new 52-week high of 25,654.20, reinforcing market conviction and strengthening the current uptrend.
- The 14-day RSI at 67.72 indicates rising momentum, comfortably positioned in bullish territory, yet below overbought levels — leaving room for further upside.
- The +DI at 36.93 remains significantly above -DI at 16.00, reflecting a strong positive directional move. The ADX at 18.12, while modest, hints at a trend in the early stages of development.
- MACD histogram continues to rise, with a reading of +205.30, highlighting sustained positive price action and continuation of the bullish structure.
- Price remains firmly above the key exponential moving averages (20/50/100/200), underscoring the technical strength of the trend. The slope of the short-term averages continues to point upward.
- The breach of the 25,500 mark — a psychologically important level — indicates improved sentiment and broader acceptance of higher valuations.
- With the breakout confirmed, the next zone of resistance is now seen at 25,800–26,000, where previous price extensions and round-number resistance align.
- The former resistance range of 25,200–25,000 will now act as the immediate support zone. Holding above this level will be critical to sustain the ongoing trend.
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