Weekly Trend Report
- 15th Sep 2025
Week Gone By
Indian equity benchmarks higher for the week, primarily driven by improved investor sentiment following recent GST reforms, hopes of easing India-U.S. relations and a potential U.S. Fed rate cut next week. During the week, Nifty 50 climbed 1.37% to settle at 24,114, while the Sensex gained 1.38%, ending at 81,904.70. Gains were largely driven by positive global cues and a domestic boost after Fitch Ratings raised India’s FY26 GDP forecast to 6.9% from 6.5%, reinforcing confidence in the country’s economic resilience. Investor sentiment remained buoyant despite mid-week volatility, particularly in financial stocks. Globally, eurozone inflation rose to 2.1% in August, slightly above the ECB’s target, while Germany’s inflation matched estimates at 2.1%. In Asia, China’s consumer prices fell 0.4% YoY, while Japan’s Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% on stronger domestic demand. In the U.S., CPI rose 2.7% YoY in August, with core inflation accelerating to 3.1%, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut amid labor market weakness.
Week Ahead
Next week, investor sentiment will be guided by both domestic data releases and key global developments. On the domestic front, the key highlight will be the August inflation rate, scheduled for release on Friday, September 5, after July CPI fell to a near eight-year low of 1.55%. Globally, China’s trade balance data will release on Monday, September 8, followed by release of Chinese inflation rate on Wednesday, September 10. In the U.S., the inflation rate for August 2025 will be released on September 11, alongside the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This will be followed by the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading for September, due on Friday, September 12. These indicators are expected to influence expectations around the future trajectory of global interest rates and overall market direction.
Technical Overview
- Nifty’s 1% rise marks a psychological shift after relentless declines. This may trigger short covering and tentative buying interest, but the magnitude of the bounce is still small compared to the prior fall.
- The index has shown signs of stabilising near the lower boundary of the falling channel and is now testing the upper channel line. A decisive breakout would open the door for a more meaningful recovery toward higher resistance levels.
- Buyers stepped in near 24,350 a previously identified support level. This reaction reinforces its importance; however, repeated testing could weaken it, so a sustained close above 24,500 remains key.
- Price is attempting to challenge the 20-day EMA, which has acted as dynamic resistance during the downtrend. A clean close above this would improve the short-term technical tone and allow for an upside push toward 24,800.
- The MACD histogram has narrowed on the negative side, hinting at reduced selling momentum. The MACD line, however, still remains below its signal line suggesting that bullish conviction is still developing.
- The ADX remains elevated at 33, indicating the downtrend is still technically strong. But if ADX starts to turn lower while price moves higher, it could confirm that bearish momentum is losing steam.
- The RSI has risen from near-oversold territory toward the mid-40s, showing improved buying strength. This shift is constructive, but crossing above 50 would be the first sign that bulls are regaining control.
- A notable rise in volumes accompanied Friday’s gain, suggesting the move was supported by stronger participation a bullish hint if it continues in the coming sessions.
- The first upside hurdle is 24,800, followed by the psychologically and technically significant 25,000 level. If these levels are reclaimed, the medium-term outlook would shift from cautious to neutral.
- Conclusion:
Nifty has finally snapped its six-week losing streak with a modest bounce, hinting at early stabilisation. Holding above 24,500 will be critical for further upside toward 24,800–25,000. A close below 24,350, however, could quickly reinstate selling pressure and target lower supports.
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